Skip to main content Skip to navigation

Our Seminars

Select tags to filter on
  More events Jump to any date
 
Fri 7 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - JIan Xie
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Investments And Innovation With Non-Rival Inputs: Evidence From Chinese Artificial Intelligence Startups

Fields: Innovation And Entrepreneurship

Supervisors: Daniel Sgroi, James Fenske

Mon 10 Oct, '22
-
Economic History Seminar - Eric Schneider (LSE)
S2.79

Title: Worldwide Child Stunting since the Nineteenth Century

Mon 10 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Gianni Marciante
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: When Nation Building Goes South: Draft Evasion, Government Repression, And The Origins Of The Sicilian Mafia

Fields: Economic History, Political Economy

Supervisors: James Fenske, Sharun Mukand

Mon 10 Oct, '22
-
Econometrics Seminar - David Frazier (Monash)
S2.79

Title: Solving the Forecasting Combination Puzzle (with Ryan Zischke, Gael M. Martin and Donald Poskitt)

 

Abstract: We demonstrate that the so-called forecasting combination puzzle is a consequence of the methodology commonly used to produce forecast combinations. By the combination puzzle, we refer to the empirical finding that predictions formed by combining multiple forecasts in ways that seek to optimize forecast performance often do not out-perform more naive, e.g. equally-weighted, approaches. In particular, we demonstrate that, due to the manner in which such forecasts are typically produced, tests that aim to discriminate between the predictive accuracy of such competing combinations can have low power, and can lack size control, leading to an outcome that favors the simpler approach. In short, we show that this counter-intuitive result can be completely avoided by the adoption of more efficient estimation strategies in the production of the combinations, when feasible. We illustrate these findings both in the context of forecasting a functional of interest and in terms of predictive densities.

Tue 11 Oct, '22
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - David Schonholzer (IIES)
S2.79

Title: School Capital Expenditure Rules, Student Outcomes, and Real Estate Capitalization (joint work with Barbara Biasi and Julien Lafortune)

Abstract: School capital expenditures are a major component of public spending in the US, but there is substantial disagreement among economists and policymakers under what conditions these expenditures are a good use of funds. We use new data on school bond elections from dozens of states to estimate (a) the effects of capital expenditures on student achievement and house prices, (b) how they vary with bond and district characteristics, and (c) how they are shaped by the institutional environment. On average, we find positive effects on test scores and house prices, but with meaningful heterogeneity across bond characteristics, districts, and state institutions. We interpret these findings in a probabilistic voter model with budget-maximizing school districts. The model provides a foundation for quantitative evaluation of counterfactual political and fiscal institutions governing school capital finance.

Wed 12 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk sessions - Eleonora Alabrese
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: When Nation Building Goes South: Draft Evasion, Government Repression, And The Origins Of The Sicilian Mafia

Fields: Economic History, Political Economy

Supervisors: James Fenske, Sharun Mukand

Wed 12 Oct, '22
-
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Parama Chaudhury (UCL)
S2.79

Title to be advised.

Organised by Subhasish Dey

Wed 12 Oct, '22
-
CRETA Theory Seminar - Lucas Maestri (FGV)
S2.79

Title: Dynamic Contracting with Multiple Agents under Limited Commitment

We consider an environment of dynamic contracting with multiple agents and lack of commitment. A principal with no commitment power would like to screen efficient workers over time and assign harder tasks to them. After efficiency is revealed, the principal becomes tempted to change the terms of trade. . Breaches of contracts are observable and, hence, whenever past promises are not honored future information revelation stops. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which the principal is able to foster information revelation. Optimal contracts that lead to information revelation entail extreme high-powered incentives after information is revealed, and rewards for information revelation disappear in the long run. Information revelation becomes easier when workers are stochastically replaced by new ones.

Thu 13 Oct, '22
-
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Soledad Artiz Prillaman
S2.79
Thu 13 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Giulia Vattuone
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Worker Sorting And The Gender Wage Gap

Fields: Labour

Supervisors: Roland Rathelot, Manuel Bagues

Thu 13 Oct, '22
-
Macro/International Seminar - Jonathan Hazel (LSE)
S2.79
Fri 14 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Diego Calderon
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Belief-Driven Fluctuations, Global Imbalances And Equilibrium Dynamics

Fields: Macro, Theory

Supervisors: Roger Farmer, Herakles Polemarchakis, Pablo Beker

Mon 17 Oct, '22
-
Economic History Seminar - Maria Waldinger (IFO Institute Munich)
S2.79

Title: The Revolution Suffocates Its Children - The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Air Pollution in Socialist East Germany

Abstract: Measuring the detrimental effects of air pollution on individuals is difficult. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging a natural experiment occurring in socialist East Germany in the 1980s. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the Soviet Union reduced and capped East Germany’s access to imported fossil fuels, leading the socialist party dictatorship to rapidly substitute Soviet oil with domestic brown coal at the cost of increased ambient air pollution. Comparing regions within East Germany with and without natural brown coal deposits, we find that the switch to brown coal led to an immediate and permanent increase in mortality (?), infant mortality and a reduction in birth weights. We use administrative social security data after German reunification to show that, in the next 40 years, individuals that lived in areas within the GDR exposed to the shift to brown coal spent less time in employment, earned lower wages and retired earlier. The authoritarian nature of the East German government makes this natural experiment particularly insightful by ruling out spatial sorting behaviour, competitive housing markets, and labour market adjustments as channels through which the estimated effects of air pollution could have been confounded.

Mon 17 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Aruhan Shi
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Can An Ai Agent Hit A Moving Target

Fields: Macro, Theory

Supervisors: Roger Farmer, Herakles Polemarchakis

Tue 18 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Livia Silva Paranhos
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Heterogeneous Local Projections: An Application To Firm Investment

Fields: Macro, Econometrics

Supervisors: Giovanni Ricco, Ana Galvao (Wbs)

Tue 18 Oct, '22
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE)
S2.79

Title: Predicting Long-term Unemployment Risk - Andreas Mueller (UT Austin) & Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE)

Abstract: This paper uses rich administrative and survey data from Sweden to study the predictability and determinants of long-term unemployment (LTU) over the period 1992-2016. We use standard machine learning techniques to predict job seekers' LTU risk and find substantial predictable heterogeneity. Compared to a model using standard socio-demographic variables, a comprehensive model that uses data on income, employment and benefit histories more than doubles the predictive power. The estimated heterogeneity in LTU risk implies that at least two thirds of the observed duration dependence in job finding is driven by dynamic selection. We apply our prediction algorithm over the business cycle and find significant heterogeneity underlying the cyclicality in average LTU risk, while the role of composition effects is limited. We evaluate the implied value of targeting unemployment policies and how this changes over the business cycle.

Wed 19 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Velichka Dimitrova
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: The Fertility Impact Of Mass Return Migration

Fields: Economic History, Labour

Supervisors: James Fenske, Manuel Bagues

Thu 20 Oct, '22
-
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Avidit Acharya
S2.79
Thu 20 Oct, '22
-
Macro/International Seminar - Anna Ignatenko (LMU)
S2.79
Thu 20 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Ceren Bengu Cibik
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Avoiding Dissonant Information

Fields: Behavioural Economics, Experimental Economics

Supervisors:

Fri 21 Oct, '22
-
Economics PhD job talk session - Raghav Malhotra
S2.77 Cowling Room

Title: Price Changes And Welfare Analysis: Measurement Under Individual Heterogeniety

Fields: Theory, Public, Labour

Supervisors: Herakles Polemarchakis, Robert Akerlof, Costas Cavounidis

Mon 24 Oct, '22
-
Econometrics Seminar - Patrick Gagliardini (Lugano)
S2.79
Tue 25 Oct, '22
-
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Barbara Biasi (Yale SoM)
S2.79
Wed 26 Oct, '22
-
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Ralf Becker (Manchester)
S2.79

Title: On the Use of Interactive Textbooks

Organised by Subhasish Dey

Thu 27 Oct, '22
-
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Laura Schechter (Wisc)
S2.79

TItle: Brokering Votes with Information Spread via Social Networks (with R Duarte, F Finan, H Larreguy)

Mon 31 Oct, '22
-
Econometrics Seminar - Martin Weidner (Oxford)
S2.79
Wed 2 Nov, '22
-
CRETA Theory Seminar - Marcus Pivato
S2.79
Thu 3 Nov, '22
-
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Julien Labonne (Oxford)
S2.79

Title: Campaigning Against Populism: Emotional and Informational Messaging in Real Campaigns, with Cesi Cruz (UCLA) and Francesco Trebbi (Berkeley)

Thu 3 Nov, '22
-
Macro/International Seminar - Banu Demir (Oxford)
S2.79

Title: Breaking invisible barriers: Does fast internet increase competition in input markets?

Mon 7 Nov, '22
-
Econometrics Seminar - Bryan Graham (UC Berkeley)
S2.79