Draft Programme

Thursday 11 July

10.45 Welcome

11.00 David Hendry: "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics"

11.40 Martin Weale: "An empirical analysis of monetary policy at the zero lower bound"

12.20 - 1.40 Lunch

1.40 Alastair Hall: "Inference in models with discrete parameter change at unknown break points"

2.20 Richard Baillie: "Impulse response inference in systems of strongly persistent processes"

3.00 Tea break

3.20 Warwick McKibbin: "The world is more complex than three equations: What have we learnt in the past decade from using large scale multi-country models?"

4.00 Adrian Pagan: "Macroeconomic system modelling @ 75" (co-authored with Tony Hall and Jan Jacobs)

4.40 Tea break

5.30 Anecdotes and reflections

7.00 Pre-dinner drinks

7.30 Dinner

Friday 12 July

9.30 Ana Galvão: "Forecasting with DSGE models in the presence of data revisions"

10.10 Antoni Espasa: "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions: The case of inflation in the Euro area and in Spain" (co-authored with G. Pino and J.D. Tena)

10.50 Coffee break

11.10 Gianni Amisano: "Forecasting with several macroeconometric models"

11.50 James Mitchell: "The recalibrated and copula opinion pool"

12.30 Lunch

1.40 Andrew Harvey: "Robust filtering for seasonal time series"

2.20 Charles Nelson: "The superiority of the LM test in a class of models where the Wald test performs poorly; Including nonlinear regression, ARMA, GARCH and unobserved components" (co-authored with Jun Ma)

3.00 Close