About

I am a macroeconomist, PhD candidate in Economics at Warwick, and I will be on the job market for 2024-2025. My current research focuses on central bank communications and how information conveyed through language affects financial markets and the macroeconomy. I am also interested in how households learn about the macroeconomy, and how this affects their decisions.

Works in Progress

• The Effects of Information Gaps in Central Bank Communications (Job Market Paper).Link opens in a new window

Information gaps about the likely path of future interest rates between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and public speeches by the Chair and Vice Chair account for fluctuations in bond markets and the macroeconomy. I estimate a relationship between the text of public speeches and the high-frequency change in market expectations of interest rates. I then use this relationship to measure the differential information about the likely path of future interest rates between private FOMC meeting minutes and public speeches, which I call an information gap. In an event study, I show that these information gaps account for 11% of the variation in surprises in financial market expectations of future interest rates, which has a persistent effect along the yield curve. Using a structural vector autoregression identified with external instruments, I find that information gap surprises have persistent macroeconomic effects. I explain my results through a model in which the central bank inaccurately communicates its superior knowledge of its reaction function and the real interest rate.

• Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy (with Andrea Guerrieri D’Amati).

Presented at: Royal Economics Society annual conference, University of Belfast, 2024; Text-as-Data in Economics workshop (poster session), University of Liverpool, 2024; PhD Conference in Economics, University of Tor Vergata, 2024; Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing for Macroeconomics, Bank of Italy, November 2024.

• The role of Labour Markets in Household Inflation Expectations (with Christine Braun and Anshumaan Tuteja).

Teaching

• I taught small-group seminars for second-year undergraduate econometrics (EC226) from 2021-2024, and first-year undergraduate introductory economics (EC107) in Autumn 2021.