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Andreas Murr Writes a Prediction of Thursday's UK Election for the Washington Post
Want a glimpse at how Thursday's general election will turn out? Have a look at this Washington Post piece by Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri) and Mike Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa).
They discuss whether people rather than pollsters can accurately predict Thursday's UK election. Based on their "citizen forecasting" approach, they predict the following:
- Conservatives 361 seats, Labour 236 seats.
- Probability of a Conservative majority 77%, hung parliament led by Conservatives 20%, hung parliament led by Labour 2%, and Labour majority 1%.