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Andreas Murr

Andreas Murr profile

Reader in Quantitative Political Science


Telephone: +44 (0)24 765 72959

Please note that my Advice and Feedback Hours will take place usually on Mondays between 3:30-4:30pm and Thursdays between 2:30-3:30pm via MS Teams in weeks 1 to 10 (excluding reading week). Please book your appointment 24 hours in advance here (please use Google Chrome to open the link in case the page comes up empty).

Room: D1.20, Social Sciences Building

Curriculum VitaeLink opens in a new window


Dr Andreas Murr is Reader in Quantitative Political Science.

He joined Warwick from the University of Oxford, where he was Departmental Lecturer in Quantitative Methods.

He received a PhD in Government in 2013 and an MA in Public Opinion and Polling in 2009 from the University of Essex.

His research interests include political behaviour, public opinion, and political methodology.


Andreas is member of the Editorial Board of Electoral Studies.

He is also Co-Convenor of the Political Methodology Specialist Group of the Political Studies Association.

PhD Students


Journal Articles

Lukas Stoetzer, Mark Kayser, Arndt Leininger & Andreas Murr. 2024. Voters' Expectations in Constituency Elections Without Local Polls. Public Opinion Quarterly.

Andreas Murr, Richard Traunmüller & Jeff Gill. 2023. Computing Quantities of Interest and Their Uncertainty Using Bayesian Simulation. Political Science Research and Methods.

Yannick Dufresne, Bruno Jérôme, Michael Lewis-Beck, Andreas Murr & Justin Savoie. 2022. Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Elections. PS: Political Science & Politics.

Andreas Murr & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2022. Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election. PS: Political Science & Politics.

Andreas Murr. 2021. Do Party Leadership Contests Predict British General Elections?. Electoral Studies.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2021. Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies. British Journal of Political Science.

Andreas Murr & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2021. Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment. PS: Political Science & Politics.

Debra Leiter, Andreas Murr, Ericka Rascón & Mary Stegmaier. 2018. Social Networks and Citizen Election Forecasting: The More Friends the Better. International Journal of Forecasting.

Andreas Murr. 2016. The Wisdom of Crowds: What do Do Citizens Forecast for the 2015 British General Election? Electoral Studies.

Andreas Murr. 2015. The Wisdom of Crowds: Applying Condorcet's Jury Theorem to Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. International Journal of Forecasting.

Andreas Murr. 2015. The Party Leadership Model: An Early Forecast of the 2015 British General Election. Research & Politics.

Richard Traunmüller, Andreas Murr & Jeff Gill. 2015. Modeling Latent Information in Voting Data with Dirichlet Process Priors. Political Analysis.

Andreas Murr. 2011. "Wisdom of crowds"? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations. Electoral Studies.

Book chapters

Arndt Leininger, Andreas Murr, Lukas Stoetzer & Mark Kayser. 2024. Bürger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall in Harald Schoen & Bernhard Weßels (editors): Wahlen und Wähler.

Andreas Murr. 2017. "Wisdom of Crowds" in Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans & Michael Lewis-Beck (editors): The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour.

Blog posts

Andreas Murr and Steve Fisher. 2022. Truss is good news for Labour's electoral prospects. LSE British Politics and Policy.

Andreas Murr, Yannick Dufresne, Justin Savoie, Bruno Jérôme, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2022. Citizen forecasting suggests Macron will win a comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen. LSE European Politics and Policy.

Andreas Murr. 2021. What do citizens forecast for the 2021 German federal election? Elections Etc.

Mark Kayser, Arndt Leininger, Andreas Murr & Lukas Stötzer. 2021. Citizens' Forecast for the 2021 German National Election.

Steve Fisher and Andreas Murr. 2020. Crunching decades of leadership election results suggests Labour should pick Keir Starmer. Prospect Magazine.

Andreas Murr and Steve Fisher. 2019. The Party Leadership Model predicts a Conservative overall majority. Elections Etc.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2019. Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives. LSE's British Politics and Policy Blog.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2019. Why vote expectations are a better tool for predicting election results than vote intentions. LSE British Politics and Policy.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2017. How did the U.K. election forecasts do? Monkey Cage – The Washington Post.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2017. New British election forecast: Conservatives gain 31 seats and have 77% chance of controlling a majority. Monkey Cage – The Washington Post.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck. 2016. Using citizen forecasts we predict that with 362 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will be the next president. LSE American Politics and Policy.

Andreas Murr, Steve Fisher & Paul Whiteley. 2015. The State and Future of Political Methodology. The Plot.

Andreas Murr. 2015. Members of Parliament Accurately Predict Who Becomes Prime Minister. The Plot.

Andreas Murr. 2015. Citizens Forecast a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the Largest Party. LSE British Politics and Policy.


Skyler Cranmer, Jeff Gill, Natalie Jackson, Andreas Murr & Dave Armstrong. 2014. hot.deck: Multiple Hot-deck Imputation. R package version 1.0.