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Andreas Murr

Andreas Murr profile

Assistant Professor in Quantitative Political Science

Email: A.Murr@warwick.ac.uk

Telephone: +44 (0)24 765 72959

Advice and Feedback Hours (during term time only): Thursdays 13:30-14:30 and by appointment.

Room: E2.19, Social Sciences Building

Profile

Dr Andreas Murr is an Assistant Professor in Quantitative Political Science in the Department of Politics and International Relations and a member of the Warwick Q-Step Centre.

Before joining Warwick, he was Departmental Lecturer in Quantitative Methods in Political Science in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, Non-Stipendiary Research Fellow and then Associate Member at Nuffield College, Non-Stipendiary Lecturer at Lincoln College, and member of the Oxford Q-Step Centre.

He received his PhD in Government from the University of Essex in 2013, and an MA in Public Opinion and Polling from the University of Essex in 2009.

Affiliations

Research Interest

  • Election forecasting.
  • Voting behaviour of immigrants.
  • Selection of party leaders.
  • Political methodology.
  • Bayesian statistics.

Publications

Journal Articles

Debra Leiter, Andreas Erwin Murr, Ericka Gabriela Rascón Ramírez, and Mary Stegmaier (forthcoming). Social Networks and Citizen Election Forecasting: The More Friends the Better. International Journal of Forecasting.

Andreas Erwin Murr (2016). The Wisdom of Crowds: What do Do Citizens Forecast for the 2015 British General Election? Electoral Studies 41(1): 283-288.

Andreas Erwin Murr (2015). The Wisdom of Crowds: Applying Condorcet's Jury Theorem to Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. International Journal of Forecasting 31(3): 916-929.

Andreas Erwin Murr (2015). The Party Leadership Model: An Early Forecast of the 2015 British General Election. Research & Politics April-June: 1-9.

Richard Traunmüller, Andreas Murr, and Jeff Gill (2015). Modeling Latent Information in Voting Data with Dirichlet Process Priors. Political Analysis 23(1): 1-20.

Andreas Erwin Murr (2011). "Wisdom of crowds"? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations. Electoral Studies 30(4): 771-783.

Handbook chapters

Andreas Erwin Murr (2017). "Wisdom of Crowds", in Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, and Michael Lewis-Beck (editors). The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, London: Sage, 835-860.

Blog posts

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (2017). How did the U.K. election forecasts do? Monkey Cage – The Washington Post.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (2017). New British election forecast: Conservatives gain 31 seats and have 77% chance of controlling a majority. Monkey Cage – The Washington Post.

Andreas Murr, Steve Fisher, and Paul Whiteley (2015). The State and Future of Political Methodology. The Plot.

Andreas Murr (2015). Members of Parliament Accurately Predict Who Becomes Prime Minister. The Plot.

Andreas Murr (2015). Citizens Forecast a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the Largest Party. LSE's British Politics and Policy Blog.

Software

Skyler Cranmer, Jeff Gill, Natalie Jackson, Andreas Murr, and Dave Armstrong (2014). hot.deck: Multiple Hot-deck Imputation. R package version 1.0.