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Publications 2022

Leng, T., Hill, E.M., Holmes, A., Southall, E., Thompson, R.N., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J. & Dyson L. (2022) Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature communications 13 (1), 1-11

Prosser, N.S., Green, M.J., Ferguson, E., Tildesley, M.J., Hill, E.M., Keeling, M.J. & Kaler, J. (2022) Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea. Journal of Dairy Science 105 (4), 3559-3573

Ojal, J. et al. (2022) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research 6, 127

Antillon, M., Huang, C., Crump, R.E, Brown, P.E., Snijders, R., Miaka, E.M., Keeling, M.J., Rock, K.S. & Tediosi, F. (2022) Nature Communications 13 (1), 1-13

Woods, C., Hedges, L., Edsall, C., Brooks-Pollock, E., Parton-Fenton, C., McKinley, T., Keeling, M. & Danon L. (2022) MetaWards: A flexible metapopulation framework for modelling disease spread. The Journal of Open Source Software, 7 (70)

Southall, E., Holmes, A., Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.A., Leng, T., Thompson, R.N., Dyson, L., Keeling, M.J. & Tildesley, M.J. (2021) An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine 19 (1), 1-14

Publications 2021

Davis, C.N., Keeling, M.J. & Rock, K.S. (2021) Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages of the Democratic Republic of Congo using Kolmogorov forward equations. Roy. Soc. Interface 18 (183), 20210419

Dyson, L., Hill, E.M., Moore, S., Curran-Sebastian, J., Tildesley, M.J., Luthgoe, K.A., House, T., Pellis, L, Keeling, M.J. (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Comms. 12 1-13

Tennant, W.S.D., Cardinale, E., Cêtre-Sossah, C., Moutrofi, Y., Le Godais, G., Colombi, D., Spencer, S.E.F., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J., Charafouddine, O., Colizza, V., Edmunds, W.J & Métras, R. (2021) Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature Communications 12 (1), 1-13

Aliee, M., Keeling, M.J. & Rock, K.S. (2021) Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness. PLoS Computational Biology 17 (9), e1009367

Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.D., Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J & Dyson, L. (2021) Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics 36, 100476

Monaghan, E.M., Prosser, N.S., Witt, J. Lewis, K.E., Nabb, E., Keeling, M.J., Purdy, K.J. & Green, L.E. (2021) Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 933

Parisi, A., Brand, S.P.C., Hilton, J., Aziza, R., Keeling, M.J. & Nokes, D.J. (2021) Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries. PLoS Computational Biology 17 (7), e1009090

Cavallaro, M., Moiz, H., Keeling, M.J. & McCarthy, N.D. (2021) Contrasting factors associated with COVID-19-related ICU admission and death outcomes in hospitalised patients by means of Shapley values. PLoS Computational Biology 17 (6), e1009121

Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.D., Keeling, M.J., Dyson, L. & Tildesley, M.J (2021) A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2. PLoS Computational Biology 17 (6), e1009058

Moore, S. Hill, E.M., Tildesley, M.J., Dyson, L, & Keeling M.J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 21 (6), 793-802

Leng, T., Hill, E.M., Holmes, A., Southall, E., Thompson, R.N., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J. & Dyson, L. (2021) Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature Comms. 13 1-11

Hill, E.M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses. Roy. Soc. Interface 18 20210214

Brand, S.P.C. et al (2021) COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science 374 989-994

Keeling,M.J., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M.J., Hill, E.M. & Medley, G.F. (2021) Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics 37

Brooks-Pollock, E., Read, J.M., House, T.,Medley, G.F., Keeling, M.J. & Danon, L. (2021) The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 376 (1829), 20200273

Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J., Atkins, B.D., Penman, B., Southall, E., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., McKimm, H., Gorsich, E.E., Hill, E.M. & Dyson L. (2021) The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 376 (1829), 20200261

Brooks-Pollock, E., Read, J.M., McLean, A.R., Keeling, M.J. & Danon, L. (2021) Mapping social distancing measures to the reproduction number for COVID-19. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 376 (1829), 20200276

Danon, L., Brooks-Pollock, E., Bailey, M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 376 (1829), 20200272

Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S., Antillón, M., Miaka, E.M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMC medicine 19 (1), 1-18

Ojal, J, Brand, S.P.C., Were, V., Okiro, E.A., Kombe, I.K., Mburu, C., Aziza, R., Ogero, M., Agweyu, A., Warimwe, G.M., Uyoga, S., Adetifa, I.M.O., Scott, J.A.G., Otieno, E., Ochola-Oyier, L.I., Agoti, C.N., Kasera, K., Amoth, P., Mwangangi, M., Aman, R., Tsofa, B., Bejon, P., Barasa, E., Keeling, M.J. & Nokes D.J. (2021) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research 6 (127), 127

Moore, S., Hill, E.M., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M.J. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS computational biology 17 (5), e1008849

Davis, C.N., Castaño, M.S., Aliee, M., Patel, S., Miaka, E.M., Keeling, M.J., Spencer, S.E.F., Chitnis, N. & Rock, K.S. (2021) Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data. Clinical infectious diseases 72 S146-S151

Retkute, R., Dilger, E., Hamilton, J.G.C., Keeling, M.J. & Courtenay, O. (2021) Modelling Sand Fly Lutzomyia longipalpis Attraction to Host Odour: Synthetic Sex-Aggregation Pheromone Dominates the Response. Microorganisms 9, 602

MacPherson, A., Keeling, M.J. & Otto, S.P. (2021) Coevolution fails to maintain genetic variation in a host–parasite model with constant finite population size. Theoretical Population Biology 137, 10-21

MacPherson, A., Keeling, M.J. & Otto, S.P. (2021) Feedback between coevolution and epidemiology can help or hinder the maintenance of genetic variation in host‐parasite models. Evolution 75 (3), 582-599

Aliee, M., Castaño, S., Davis, C.N., Patel, S., Miaka, E.M., Spencer, S.E.F., Keeling, M.J., Chitnis, N. & Rock, K.S. (2021) Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 115 245-252

Crump, R.E., Huang, C.I., Knock, E.S., Spencer, S.E.F., Brown, P.E., Miaka E.M., Shampa, C., Keeling, M.J. & Rock, K.S. (2021) Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo. PLoS computational biology 17 (1), e1008532

Keeling, M.J., Hill, E.M., Gorsich, E.E., Penman, B., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., Leng, T., McKimm, H., Tamborrino, M., Dyson, L. & Tildesley, M.J. (2021) Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS computational biology 17 (1), e1008619

Möhlmann, T.W.R., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Favia, G., Santman-Berends, I., Takken, W., Koenraadt, C.J.M., & Brand, S.P.C. (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports 11 (1), 1-16

Staniszewska, S., Hill, E.M., Grant, R., Grove, P., Porter, J., Shiri, T., Tulip, S., Whitehurst, J., Wright, C., Datta, S., Petrou, S., & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Developing a framework for public involvement in mathematical and economic modelling: Bringing new dynamism to vaccination policy recommendations. The Patient-Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, 1-11

Mateen, B.A., Wilde, H., Dennis, J.M., Duncan, A., Thomas, N., McGovern, A., Denaxas, S., Keeling, M.J. & Vollmer, S. (2021) Hospital bed capacity and usage across secondary healthcare providers in England during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a descriptive analysis. BMJ Open 11 (1), e042945

Publications 2020

Aliee, M., Rock, K.S. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches. Roy. Soc. Interface 17 (173), 20200540

Hill, E.M., Petrou, S., Forster, H., de Lusignan, S., Yonova, I. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation. PLoS Comp. Biol 16 (10), e1008278

Keeling, M.J., Hollingsworth, T.D. & Read, J.M. (2020) Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). J Epidemiol Community Health 74 (10), 861-866

Leng, T., White, C., Hilton, J., Kucharski, A., Pellis, L., Stage, H., Davies, N.G., Keeling, M.J. & Flasche, S. (2020) The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study. Wellcome Open Research 5 (213), 213

Leng, T. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Improving pairwise approximations for network models with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Theo. Biol. 500, 110328

Moran, E., Robinson, E., Green, C., Keeling, M. & Collyer, B. (2020) Towards personalized guidelines: using machine-learning algorithms to guide antimicrobial selection. Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 75 (9), 2677-2680

RN Thompson, et al (2020) Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. Roy. Soc. B 287 (1932), 20201405

Hilton, J. & Keeling M.J. (2020) Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices. PLoS Comp. Biol. 16 (7), e1008031

Tennant, W.S.D., Tildesley, M.J., Spencer, S.E.F. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Roy. Soc. B 287 (1928), 20200538

Kura, K., Collyer, B.S., Toor, J., Truscott, J.E., Hollingsworth, T.D., Keeling, M.J. & Anderson, R.M. (2020) Policy implications of the potential use of a novel vaccine to prevent infection with Schistosoma mansoni with or without mass drug administration. Vaccine 38 (28), 4379-4386

White, C., Pellis, L., Keeling, M. & Penman B. (2020) Detecting HLA-infectious disease associations for multi-strain pathogens. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 104344

English, S., Barreaux, A.M.G., Bonsall, M.B., Hargrove, J.W., Keeling, M.J., Rock, K.S. & Vale, G.A. (2020) Incorporating Vector Ecology and Life History into Disease Transmission Models: Insights from Tsetse (Glossina spp.) Population Biology of Vector-Borne Diseases, 175-188

Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Human African trypanosomiasis: current status and eradication efforts. CAB Reviews 15 1-11

Brand, S.P.C., Munywoki, P., Walumbe, D., Keeling, M.J. & Nokes, D.J. (2020) Reducing RSV hospitalisation in a lower-income country by vaccinating mothers-to-be and their households. eLife 9

Mastano, M.S., Ndeffo-Mbah, M.L., Rock, K.S., Palmer, C., Knock, E., Mwamba Miaka, E., Ndung’u, J.M., Torr, S., Verle, P., Spencer, S.E.F., Galvani, A., Bever, C., Keeling, M.J. & Chitnis, N. (2020) Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC). PLoS NTD 14 e0007976

Publications 2019

Mastano, M.S., Aliee, M., Mwamba Miaka, E., Keeling, M.J., Chitnis, N. & Rock, K.S. (2019) Screening Strategies for a Sustainable Endpoint for Gambiense Sleeping Sickness. The J. of Inf. Diseases.

Meakin, S.R., & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Correlations between stochastic endemic infection in multiple interacting subpopulations. Theo. Biol. 483 109991

Collyer, B.S., Turner, H.C., Hollingsworth, T.D. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Vaccination or mass drug administration against schistosomiasis: a hypothetical cost-effectiveness modelling comparison. Parasites & Vectors 12 1-14

Datta, S., Pink, J., Medley, G.F., Petrou, S., Staniszewska, S., Underwood, M., Sonnenberg, P. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK. BMC Infectious Diseases. 19 552

Tildesley, M.J., Brand, S., Brooks Pollock, E., Bradbury, N.V., Werkmann, M. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections. Nature Sustainability, 2 834-840

Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S., Miaka, E.M & Keeling, M.J (2019) Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. PLoS NTD 13

Hilton, J. & Keeling M.J. (2019) Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease. Roy. Soc. Interface 16 20190317

Meakin, S.R. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Correlations between stochastic epidemics in two interacting populations. Epidemics 26 58-67

Retkute, R., Jewell, C.P., van Boeckel, T.P., Zhang, G., Xiao, X., Thanapongtharm, W., Keeling, M.J., Gilberts, M., Tildesley, M.J. (2019) Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control. Prev Vet Med. 159 171-181.

Publications 2018

Datta, S., Mercer, C.H. & Keeling, M.J. (2018) Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3. PLoS ONE 13 e0206501

Meakin, S.R. & Keeling, M.J. (2018) Correlations between stochastic epidemics in two interacting populations. Epidemics org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.005

Probert, W.J.M., Jewell, C.P., Werkman, M., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Goto, Y., Runge, M.C., Sekiguchi, S., Shea, K., Keeling, M.J., Ferrari, M.J. & Tildesley, M.J. (2018) Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS Comp. Bio. 14 e1006202

Meadows, A.J., Mundt, C.C., Keeling, M.J. & Tildesley, M.J. (2018) Disentangling the influence of livestock vs. farm density on livestock disease epidemics. Ecosphere 9 (7), e02294

Rock, K.S., Mdeffo-Mbad, M.L., Castano, S., Palmer, C., Pandey, A., Atkins, K.E., Ndung’u, J.M., Hollingsworth, T.D., Galvani, A., Bever, C., Chitnis, N. & Keeling, M.J. (2018) Assessing Strategies Against Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Through Mathematical Modeling. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 S286-292.

Leng, T. & Keeling, M.J. (2018) Concurrency of Partnerships, Consistency with Data, and Control of Sexually Transmitted Infections. Epidemics. 25 35-46

Sellman, S., Tsao, K., Tildesley, M.J., Brommesson, P., Webb, C.T., Wennergren, U., Keeling, M.J. & Lindstrom, T. (2018) Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations. PLoS Comp. Biol. 14(4): e1006086

Irvine, M.A., Bull, J.C. & Keeling, M.J. (2018) Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data. Reports. 8 132.

Publications 2017

Keeling, M.J., Franklin, D.N., Datta, S., Brown, M.A. & Budge, G.E. (2017) Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain. Reports 7 6240.

Métras, R., Fournié, G., Dommergues, L., Camacho, A., Cavalerie, L., Mérot, P., Keeling, M.J., Cêtre-Sossah, C., Cardinale, E. & Edmunds, W.J. (2017) Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach. PLoS NTD 11

Keeling, M.J., Broadfoot, K.A. & Datta, S. (2017) The impact of current infection levels on the cost-benefit of vaccination. 21 56-62

Franklin, D.N., Brown, M.A., Datta, S., Cuthbertson, A.G.S., Budge, G.E. & Keeling, M.J. (2017) Invasion dynamics of Asian hornet, Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae): a case study of a commune in south-west France. Ent. & Zoo. 52 221-229.

Metras, R., Dommergues, L., Ortiz, K., Pannequin, M., Schuler, C., Roux, P., Edmunds, J.W., Keeling, M.J., Cetre-Sossah, C. & Cardinale, E. (2017) Absence of evidence of Rift Valley fever infection in Eulemur fulvus (Brown Lemur) in Mayotte during an interepidemic period. Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Diseases 17 358-360

Atia, J., Monaghan, E., Kaler, J., Purdy, K., Green, L. & Keeling, M.J. (2017) Mathematical modeling of ovine footrot in the UK: the effect of Dichelobacter nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum on the disease dynamics. Epidemics 21 13-20

Keeling, M.J., Datta, S., Franklin, D.N., Flatman, I., Wattam, A., Brown, M. & Budge, G.E. (2017) Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Roy. Soc. Interface 14 20160908

Rock, K.S., Pandey, A., Ndeffo-Mbah, M.L., Atkins, K.E., Lumbala, C., Galvani, A., & Keeling, M.J. (2017) Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC. 18 101-112

Brand, S.P.C. & Keeling, M.J. (2017) The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus. Roy. Soc. Interface 14 20160481

Bradbury, N.V., Probert, W.J.M., Shea, K., Runge, M.C., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Keeling, M.J., Ferrari, M.J. & Tildesley, M.J. (2017) Quantifying the value of perfect information in emergency vaccination campaigns. PLoS Comp Biol. 13 e1005318

Shiri, T., Datta, S., Madan, J., Tsertsvadze, A., Royle, P., Keeling, M.J., McCarthy, N.D., Petrou, S. (2017) Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet Global Health. 5 e51-e59

Rock, K.S., Torr, S.J., Lumbala, C., Keeling, M.J. (2017) Predicting the impact of intervention strategies for sleeping sickness in two high-endemicity health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 (1), e0005162

Publications 2016

Keeling, M.J., House, T., Cooper, A.J. & Pellis, L. (2016) Systematic Approximations to Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Dynamics on Networks. PLoS Comp. Biol. 12 e1005296

Werkman, M., Tildesley, M.J., Brooks-Pollock, E. & Keeling, M.J. (2016) Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions. Epidemics 17, 35-41

Métras, R., Cavalerie, L., Dommergues, L., Mérot, P., Edmunds, W.J., Keeling, M.J., Cêtre-Sossah, C. & Cardinale, E. (2016) The epidemiology of Rift Valley fever in Mayotte: insights and perspectives from 11 years of data. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 10 (6), e0004783

Irvine, M.A., Jackson, E.L., Kenyon, E.J., Cook, K.J., Keeling, M.J. and Bull, J.C. (2016) Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems. Royal Society open science 3 (3), 150519

Brand, S.P.C, Rock, K.S. and Keeling, M.J. (2016) The interaction between vector life history and short vector life in vector-borne disease transmission and control. PLoS Comput Biol 12 (4), e1004837

Irvine, M.A., Bull, J.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2016) Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions. Pop. Biol. 108 70-74.

Publications 2015

Geard, N., Glass, K., McCaw, J.M., McBryde, E.S., Korb, K.B., Keeling, M.J. and McVernon, J. (2015) The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. Epidemics 13 56-64

Hollingsworth, T.D. et al. (2015) Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites and vectors. 8 1-28.

Rock, K.S., Torr, S.J., Lumbala, C. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Parasites and vectors. 8 1-13.

Pellis, L., House, T., and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics. Theo. Biol. 382 160-177

Rock, K.S., Wood, D.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases. Epidemics. 12 20-29

Rock, K.S., Stone, C.M., Hastings, I.M., Keeling, M.J., Torr, S.J. and Chitnis, N. (2015) Mathematical Models of Human African Trypanosomiasis Epidemiology. Advances in Parasitology. 87 53-133

Brooks-Pollock, E., de Jong, M.C.M., Keeling, M.J., Klinkenberg, D. and Wood, J.L.N. (2015) Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases. Epidemics 10 1-5

Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy? Epidemics 11 7-13

Brand, S.P.C., Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: A spectral method. Theo. Biol. 370 121-134

Publications 2014

Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O., Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-231

Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 359 45 - 53

Buhnerkempe, M.G., Tildesley, M.J., Lindström, T., Grear, D.A., Portacci, K., Miller, R.S., Lombard, J.E., Werkman, M., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Webb, C.T. (2014) The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States. PLoS ONE 9 e91724

Hancock, P.A., Rehman, Y., Hall, I.M., Edeghere, O., Danon, L., House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) Strategies for Controlling Non-Transmissible Infection Outbreaks Using a Large Human Movement Data Set. PLoS Comp. Biol. 10 e1003809

Rock, K., Brand, S., Moir, J. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics 77 026602

Publications 2013

Datta, S., Bull, J.C., Budge G.E. and Keeling, M.J. (2013) Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (88) 20130650

van Boeckel, T.P., Tildesley, M.J., Linard, C., Halloy, J., Keeling, M.J. and Gilbert, M (2013) The Nosoi commute: a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities. arXiv:1312.3283

Danon, L., Read, J.M., House, T.A., Vernon, M.C., Keeling, M.J. (2013) Social encounter networks: Characterizing great Britain. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 280 1765

Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (81) 20121019

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) The role of spatial population structure on the evolution of parasites with acquired immunity and demography. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 324, 21-31.

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) A theoretical study of the role of spatial population structure in the evolution of parasite virulence. Theoretical Population Biology, 84 (1) 36-45.

Sutherland, W.J., et al (2013) Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions. Journal of Ecology, 101 58-67

Publications 2012

Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission, J R Soc Interface, doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.0357.

House, T., Inglis, N., Ross, J.V., Wilson, F., Suleman, S., Edeghere, O., Smith, G., Olowokure, B. and Keeling, M.J (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in households. BMC Medicine 10 117

Tildesley, M.J. Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control, Prev Vet Med 104, 224–239.

Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain, Prev Vet Med 105, 110–117.

Keeling, M.J. and Shattock, A. (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine, Epidemics 4, 78–85

Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission. J. Roy. Soc. Interface 9 2826-2833

Rock, K.S., Keeling, M.J. and Wood, D.A. (2012) Modelling the future of the Hawaiian honeycreeper: An ecological and epidemiological problem. Ecological Modelling. 235 26-35.

Publications 2011

Carslake, D., Grant, W., Green, L.E., Cave, J. Greaves, J., Keeling, M., McEldowney, J., Weldegebriel, H. and Medley, G.F. (2011) Endemic cattle diseases: comparative epidemiology and governance. Philo Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 366 1975-86

House T, Baguelin M, van Hoek AJ, White PJ, Sadique Z, Eames K, Read JM, Hens N, Melegaro A, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ (2011) Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 278 2753-2760.

Keeling, M.J. and White, P.J. (2011) Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 8 661-670

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Epidemic predictions and control in clustered populations. J. Theor. Biol. 272 1-7

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 8 67-73.

Danon L, Ford AP, House T, Jewell CP, Keeling MJ, Roberts GO, Ross JV, Vernon MC (2011) Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2011;2011:284909. Epub 2011 Mar 16.

Lurette, A., Belloc, C. and Keeling, M. (2011) Contact structure and Salmonella control in the network of pig movements in France. Prev. Vet. Med. 102 30-40

Travis ER, Gaze WH, Pontiroli A, Sweeney FP, Porter D, Mason S, Keeling MJ, Jones RM, Sawyer J, Aranaz A, Castellanos Rizaldos E, Cork J, Delahay RJ, Wilson GJ, Hewinson RG, Courtenay O, Wellington EMH (2011) An Inter-Laboratory Validation of a Real Time PCR Assay to Measure Host Excretion of Bacterial Pathogens, Particularly of Mycobacterium bovis. PLoS ONE 6

Publications 2010

Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70

Rorres, C., Pelletier, S.T., Keeling, M.J. and Smith, G. (2010) Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data. Theo. Pop. Biol. 78 46-53

Tildesley, M.J., House, T.A., Bruhn, M.C., Curry, R.J., O'Neil, M., Allpress, J.L., Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 1041-6

Ross, J.V., House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households. PLoS ONE 5 e9666

House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations. PLoS Comput Biol 6 e1000721

Conlan, A.J.K., Rohani, P., Lloyd, A.L., Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2010) Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J R Soc Interface 7 623-640

House, T., Hall, I., Danon, L., and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain-the role of geographical scale and contact structure. BMC Infect Dis 10 25

Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Grenfell, B.T., Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., and Woolhouse, M.E.J. (2010) Inference for Individual-level Models of Infectious Diseases in Large Populations. Stat Sinica 20 239-261

Publications 2009

Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276 469-476.

Heffernan, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Implications of vaccination and waning immunity. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 276 2071-2080.

Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Is R0 a good predictor of epidemic size: Foot-and-Mouth disease in the UK. Theor. Biol. 75 133-141

House, T., Davies, G., Danon, L. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 A Motif-Based Approach to Network Epidemics. Bull. Math. Biol. 71 1693-1706

Dangerfield, C.E., Ross, J.V. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model. J. R. Soc. Interface. 6 761-774

Jewell, C.P., Keeling, M.J. and Roberts, G.O. 2009 Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. J. R. Soc. Interface. 6 1145-151

Tildesley, M.J., Bessell, P.R., Keeling, M.J. and Woolhouse, M.E.J. 2009 The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 276 3239-3248.

Keeling, M.J. and Ross. J.V. 2009 Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics. Theo. Pop. Biol. 258 623-629.

House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Household structure and infectious disease transmission. Epidemiology and Infection. 137 654-661.

Danon, L., House, T., and Keeling, M.J. 2009 The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics 1 250-258

Keeling, M.J. and Danon, L. 2009 Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. British Medical Bull. 92 33-42.

Brooks-Pollock, E. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Herd size and bovine tuberculosis persistence in cattle farms in Great Britain. Prev Vet. Med. 92 360-365.

Publications 2008

Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J. (2008) On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 5 171-181

Heffernan, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) An in-host model of acute infection: Measles as a case study. Theo. Pop. Biol. 73 134-147.

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Deterministic Epidemic Models with Explicit Household Structure. Maths BioSci. 213 29-39.

Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Pre Vet Med. 85 107-124.

Tildesley, M.J., Deardon, R., Savill, N.J., Bessell, P.R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 275 1459-1468.

Publications 2007

MJ Keeling, P Rohani (2007) Modeling Infectious Diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press

O Courtenay, LA Reilly, FP Sweeney, DW Macdonald, RJ Delahay, GJ Wilson, CL Cheeseman, MJ Keeling, EMH Wellington (2007) Performance of an environmental test to detect Mycobacterium bovis infection in badger social groups. Vet Rec. 161 817-818.

ARG Price, MJ Keeling, IN Stewart (2007) A robustness metric integrating spatial and temporal information: Application to coral reefs exposed to local and regional disturbances. Marine Ecology Progress Series 331, 101-108

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, M Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 4 235-241

JM Read, MJ Keeling (2007) Stochasticity generates and evolutionary instability for infectious diseases. Ecology Letters 10 818-827.

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4, 235-241

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2007) Veterinary epidemiology: Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease (reply). Nature 445, E12-E13

SD Webb, MJ Keeling, M Boots (2007) Spatially extended host-parasite interactions: The role of recovery and immunity. Theor. Pop. Biol. 71 251-266.

SD Webb, MJ Keeling, M Boots (2007) Host-parasite interactions between the local and the mean-field: How and when does spatial population structure matter? J. Theor Biol 249 140-152

KA Woodbine, GF Medley, J Slevin, AL Kilbride, EJ Novell, MJ Turner, MJ Keeling, LE Green (2007) Spatiotemporal patterns and risks of herd breakdowns in pigs with postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome. Vet Rec. 160 751-762

Publications 2006

JM Read, MJ Keeling (2006) Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales. Theo. Pop. Biol. 70, 201-213

NJ Savill, SG St Rose, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse (2006) Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry. Nature 442, 757

KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2006) Coexistence and specialization of pathogen strains on contact networks. Am. Nat. 168, 230-241

PA Hancock, EJ Milner-Gulland, MJ Keeling (2006) Modelling the many-wrongs principle: The navigational advantages of aggregation in nomadic foragers. J. Theo. Biol. 240, 302-310

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440, 83-86  

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research 2, art. no. 3

Publications 2005

MJ Keeling (2005). The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics . Theo. Pop. Biol 67, 1-8.

MJ Keeling (2005). Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 272, 1195-1202.

MJ Keeling, KTD Eames (2005). Networks and Epidemic Models. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2, 295-307.

HJ Wearing, P Rohani, MJ Keeling (2005). Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases . PLoS Medicine 2, 621-627.

PA Hancock, EJ Milner-Gulland, MJ Keeling (2005). An individual based model of bearded pig abundance . Ecological Modelling 181, 123-137.

Publications 2004

KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2004). Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Math Biosci 189, 115-130.

MJ Keeling, SP Brooks, CA Gilligan (2004). Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a singles snapshot. Proc Nat Acad Sci 101, 9155-9160.

P Rohani, O Miramontes, MJ Keeling (2004). The colour of noise in short ecological time series data. Math Med & Biol 21, 63-72.

Publications 2003

KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2003). Contact tracing and disease control. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270, 2565-2571.

NM Ferguson, MJ Keeling, WJ Edmunds, R Gani, BT Grenfell, RM Anderson, S Leach (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425, 681-685.

MJ Keeling, F Jiggins, JM Read (2003). The invasion and coexistence of competing Wolbachia strains. Heredity 91, 382-388.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, RM May, G Davies, BT Grenfell (2003). Modelling Vaccination Strategies Against Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Nature 421, 136-142.

JM Read, MJ Keeling (2003). Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270, 699-708.

MJ Keeling, ON Bjornstad, BT Grenfell (2003). Metapopulation Dynamics of Infectious Diseases in Metapopulation Dynamics, I Hanski, OE Gaggiotti (ed.), Elsevier Press, pp 415-446.

Publications 2002

KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2002). Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. PNAS 99, 13330-13335.

M.J. Keeling (2002). Using Individual-based Simulations to Test the Levins Metapopulation Paradigm. J. Animal Ecology 71, 270-279.

M.J. Keeling, B.T. Grenfell (2002). Understanding the Persistence of Measles: Reconciling Theory, Simulation and Observation. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269, 335-343.

M.J. Keeling, H.B. Wilson, S.W. Pacala (2002). Deterministic limits to stochastic, spatial models of natural enemies. Am. Nat. 159, 57-80.

MJ Keeling, P Rohani (2002). Estimating Spatial Coupling in Epidemiological Systems: a Mechanistic Approach. Ecology Letters 5, 20-29.

P. Rohani, M.J. Keeling, B.T. Grenfell (2002). The Interplay Between Determinism and Stochasticity in Childhood Diseases. Am. Nat. 159, 469-481.

Publications 2001

MJ Keeling, P Rohani, BT Grenfell (2001). Seasonally-forced Disease Dynamics Explored as Switching Between Attractors. Physcia D 148, 317-335.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, DJ Shaw, L Matthews, M Chase-Topping, DT Haydon, SJ Cornell, J Kappey, J Wilesmith, BT Grenfell (2001). Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science 294, 813-817.

M Woolhouse, M Chase-Topping, D Haydon, J Friar, L Matthews, G Hughes, D Shaw, J Wilesmith, A Donaldson, S Cornell, M Keeling & B Grenfell (2001). Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 414, 258-258.

MJ Keeling, DA Rand (2001). Spatial Correlations and Local Fluctuations in Host Parasite Systems in From Finite to Infinite Dimensional Dynamics Systems, JC Robinson, PA Glendinning (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp5-57

Publications 2000

Keeling (2000) Evolutionary Trade-Offs at Two Time Scales: Competition v Persistence Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 385-391

Keeling and Grenfell (2000) Individual-based perspectives on R0 J. Theo. Biol. 203, 51-61

Keeling (2000) Multiplicative Moments and Measures of Persistence in Ecology J. Theor. Biol. 205, 269-281

Keeling (2000) Simple Stochastic Models and their Power-law Type Behaviour Theo. Pop. Biol. 58 21-31

Keeling (2000) Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence J. Animal Ecology 69 725-736

Keeling and Gilligan (2000) Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague Nature 407 903-906

Keeling and Gilligan (2000) Bubonic Plague: A Metapopulation Model of a Zoonosis Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 2219-2230

Keeling, Wilson and Pacala (2000) Re-interpreting Space, Time-lags and Functional Responses in Ecological Models Science 290 1758-1761

Price, Keeling and O'Callaghan (1999) Ocean-scale Patterns of Biodiversity and Community Structure. Biological J. Linnean Soc. 66 187-203

Publications 1995-1999

Keeling (1999) The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 859-869

Keeling (1999) Correlation equations for endemic diseases, Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 953-961

Keeling and Grenfell (1999) Stochastic Dynamics and a power law for measles variability Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 354 769-776

Keeling, Milner-Gulland and Clayton (1998) Spatial dynamics of two harvested wild pig populations Natural Resource Modelling 12 147-169

Finkenstadt, Keeling and Grenfell (1998) Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 265 753-762

Keeling and Grenfell (1997) Disease Extinction and Community Size: Modeling the Persistence of Measles Science 275 65-67

Keeling, Mezic, Hendry, McGlade and Rand (1997) Characteristic Length Scales of Spatial Models in Ecology via Fluctuation Analysis Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 352 1589-1601

Keeling, Rand and Morris (1997) Correlation Models for Childhood Diseases Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264 1149-1156

Keeling and Grenfell (1997) Impact of Variability in Infection Period on the Persistence and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases Math BioSciences 147 206-227

Clayton, Keeling and Milner-Gulland (1997) Bringing Home the Bacon: A Spatial Model of Wild Pig Harvesting in Sulawesi, Indonesia Ecological Applications 7 642-652

Keeling (1997) Modelling the Persistence of Measles Trends in MicroBiology 5 513-518

Rand, Keeling and Wilson (1995) Invasion, Stability and Evolution to Criticality in Spatially Extended Artificial Host-Pathogen Ecologies Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 259 55-63

Keeling and Rand (1995) A Spatial Mechanism for the Evolution and Maintenance of Sexual Reproduction Oikos 74 414-424