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Mathematics Institute

Publications

Journal articles
  1. Chan YE, Irvine MA, Prystajecky N, Sbihi H, Taylor M, Joffres Y, Schertzer A, Rose C, Dyson L, Hill EM, Tildesley M. Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant and Effect of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions, British Columbia, Canada. Emerging Infectious Diseases. (2023) 29(10):1999
  2. Cavallaro M, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Todkill D, Keeling MJ. Spatio-temporal surveillance and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a retrospective analysis. J. R. Soc. Interface. (2023) 20(208):20230410.
  3. Guzmán-Rincón LM, Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ. Bayesian Estimation of real-time Epidemic Growth Rates using Gaussian Processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. (2023) 72(5):1413-34
  4. Moore S., Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nat Med (2022) 27:1-8.
  5. Nugent A, Southall E, Dyson L. Exploring the role of the potential surface in the behaviour of early warning signals. J. Theor. Biol. (2022) Dec 7;554:111269.
  6. Fongwen N, Handley BL, Martin D, Beiras C, Dyson L, Frimpong M, Mitja O, Asiedu K, Marks M. Diagnostics to support the eradication of yaws & Development of Two Target Product Profiles PLOS NTDs (2022) 1;16(9):e0010554
  7. Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Tildesley M, Hill EM, Moore SM. Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 'Roadmap' Projections against Public Health Data. Nat Comms. (2022) 22;13(1):1-9
  8. Tildesley MJ, Vassall A, Riley S, Jit M, Sandmann F, Hill EM, Thompson RN, Atkins BD, Edmunds J, Dyson L, Keeling MJ. Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society Open Science (2022) 9:211746
  9. Leng T, Hill EM, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Dyson L. Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: a modelling study PLOS Comp Biol. (2022) May 27;18(5):e1010158.
  10. Leng T, Hill EM, Holmes A, Southall E, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Dyson L. Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England. Nat Comms. (2022) 13, 1106
  11. Dyson L Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2022)
  12. Holmes, A, Tildesley, MJ, Dyson, L Approximating steady state distributions for household structured epidemic models. J. Theor. Biol (2022) 7;534:110974
  13. Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, Semple MG, Tildesley MJ, Hill EM. Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. (2022)
  14. Clark J, Stolk WA, Basáñez MG, Coffeng LE, Cucunubá ZM, Dixon MA, Dyson L, Hampson K, Marks M, Medley GF, Pollington TM. How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases. [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Gates Open Res 2022, 5:112.
  15. Keeling MJ, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Hill EM, Medley GF. Precautionary breaks: planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of COVID-19. Epidemics (2021) 27:100526.
  16. Dyson L, Hill EM, Moore S, Curran-Sebastian J, Tildesley MJ, Lythgoe KA, House T, Pellis L, Keeling MJ. Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nat Comms. (2021) 12:5730.
  17. Sachak-Patwa R, Byrne HM, Dyson L, Thompson RN. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions. Commun. Med. (2021) 1, 39.
  18. Southall, E., Brett, T.S., Tildesley, M.J. and Dyson, L. Early-warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2021) 18: 20210555
  19. Enright, J.*, Hill, E.M.*, Stage, H.B., Bolton, K.J., Nixon, E.J., Fairbanks, E.L., Tang, M.L., Brooks-Pollock, E., Dyson, L., Budd, C.J., Hoyle, R.B. SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science. (2021).
  20. Southall, E.*, Holmes, A.*, Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.D., Leng, T., Thompson, R.N., Dyson, L., Keeling, M.J. and Tildesley, M.J.. An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic. BMC medicine. (2021) Dec;19(1):1-4.
  21. Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.D., Keeling, M.J., Dyson, L, and Tildesley, M.J. A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2. PLOS Comp Biol. (2021) Jun 16;17(6):e1009058.
  22. Hill, E.M., Atkins, B.D., Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J., and Dyson, L Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics (2021) Sep (36) 100476
  23. Challen R, Brooks-Pollock E, Read JM, Dyson L, Tsaneva-Atanasova K and Danon L. Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study. BMJ (2021) Mar 10;372.
  24. Moore S, Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, Dyson L, and Keeling MJ. Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. (2021) Jun 1;21(6):793-802.
  25. Moore S, Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley M, and Keeling MJ. Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLOS Comp Biol (2021) May 6;17(5):e1008849.
  26. Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Atkins BD, Penman B, Southall E, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, McKimm H, Gorsich EE, Hill EM, and Dyson L. The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Phil Trans B. (2021) Jul 19;376(1829):20200261
  27. Lowe-Power T., Dyson L., Polter A.M. A generation of junior faculty is at risk from the impacts of COVID-19. PLoS Biol (2021) 19(5): e3001266.
  28. Keeling M.J., Hill E.M., Gorsich E.E., Penman B., Guyver-Fletcher G., Holmes A., Leng, T., McKimm, H., Tamborrino, M., Dyson, L., and Tildesley, M.J. Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS Comp Biol 17(1): e1008619. (2021)
  29. Holmes, A, Tildesley, M.J., Solomon, A.W., Mabey, D.C.W, Sokana, O., Marks, M. and Dyson, L. Modeling Treatment Strategies to Inform Yaws Eradication Emerging infectious diseases 26.11: 2685 (2020)
  30. Southall, E., Tildesley, M.J. and Dyson, L. Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data PLOS Comp. Biol. 16(9): e1007836, (2020)
  31. Dyson, L., Mooring, E.Q., Holmes, A., Tildesley, M.J. and Marks, M. Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for Yaws Gates Open Res. 3:1576, (2019)
  32. Gama Dessavre, A., Southall, E., Tildesley, M.J. and Dyson, L. The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination J. Theor. Biol. 481, 183-193, (2019)
  33. Dyson, L., Holmes, A., Li, A. and Kulesa P.M. A Chemotactic Model of Trunk Neural Crest Cell Migration Genesis 56:e23239 (2018)
  34. Dyson, L. and Hollingsworth, T.D. Diagnosing risk factors alongside mass drug administration using serial diagnostic tests—which test first? Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 112(7), 342348 (2018)
  35. Dyson, L., Marks, M., Crook, O.M., Sokana, O., Solomon, A.W., Bishop, A., Mabey, D.C. and Hollingsworth, T.D. Targeted treatment of yaws with household contact tracing: How much do we miss? Am. J. Epidemiol. 187:4 837-844 (2018)
  36. Dyson, L., Stolk, W., Farrell, S.H. and Hollingsworth, T.D. Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration. Epidemics. 18:56-66 (2017)
  37. Lafuerza, L.F., Dyson, L, Edmonds, B. and McKane A.J. Simplification and analysis of a model of social interaction in voting. Eur. Phys. J. B 89:159 (2016)
  38. Lafuerza, L.F., Dyson, L, Edmonds, B. and McKane A.J. Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research. PLoS ONE, 11:6 (2016)
  39. Hollingsworth, T.D., ... , Dyson, L., ... , NTD Modelling Consortium Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors 8:630 (2015)
  40. Dyson, L.*, Yates, C.*, Buhl, J. and McKane, A.J. Onset of collective motion in locusts is captured by a minimal model. Phys. Rev. E. 052708 (2015)
  41. Chapman, L.A.C., Dyson, L., Courtenay, O., Chowdhury, R., Bern, C., Medley, G.F. and Hollingsworth, T.D. Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control. Parasites & Vectors 8:521 (2015)
  42. Biancalani, T.*, Dyson, L.* and McKane, A.J. The statistics of fixation times for systems with recruitment. J. Stat. Mech. P01013 (2015)
  43. Dyson, L., and Baker, R.E. The importance of volume exclusion in modelling cellular migration. J. Math. Biol. 71 (3), 691-711, (2015)
  44. Biancalani, T., Dyson, L. and McKane, A.J. Noise-Induced Bistable States and Their Mean Switching Time in Foraging Colonies. Phys. Rev. Lett. 112(3) (2014)
  45. Dyson, L., Maini, P.K. and Baker, R.E. Macroscopic limits of individual-based models for motile cell populations with volume exclusion. Phys. Rev. E 86, 031903 (2013)
  46. McLennan, R.*, Dyson, L.* Prather, K.W., Morrison, J.A., Baker, R.E., Maini, P.K. and Kulesa, P.M. Multiscale Mechanisms of Cell Migration During Development: Theory and Experiment. Development. 139, 2935-2944, (2012) (Faculty of 1000 Recommended)
  47. Collins-Hooper, H., Woolley, T.E., Dyson, L., Patel, A., Potter, P., Baker, R.E., Gaffney, E.A., Maini, P.K., Dash, P.R. and Patel, K. Age related changes in speed and mechanism of adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration. Stem Cells. 30, 1182-1195, (2012)
  48. Tindall, M.J., Dyson, L., Smallbone, K. and Maini, P.K. Modelling acidosis and the cell cycle in multicellular tumour spheroids. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 298, 107-115, (2012)
    Preprints
  49. Funk S, Abbott S, Atkins BD, Baguelin M, Baillie JK, Birrell P, Blake J, Bosse NI, Burton J, Carruthers J, Davies NG,... Dyson L,... Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK. medRxiv. (2020).
  50. Challen R, Dyson L, Overton CE, Guzman-Rincon LM, Hill EM, Stage HB, Brooks-Pollock E, Pellis L, Scarabel F, Pascall DJ, Blomquist P. Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B. 1.617. 2 in England. medRxiv. (2021).
  51. Spencer SEF*, Laeyendecker O*, Dyson L Hsieh Y-H, Patel EU, Rothman RE, Kelen GD, Quinn TC, Hollingsworth TD Estimating HIV, HCV and HSV2 incidence from emergency department serosurvey Gates Open Research. (2021), 5:116
  52. Keeling M.J., Thomas, A., Hill E.M., Thompson, R.N., Dyson L., Tildesley M.J., Moore, S. Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2. medRxiv. (2021)
  53. Keeling MJ, Brooks-Pollock E, Challen RJ, Danon L, Dyson L, Gog JR, Guzman-Rincon L, Hill EM, Pellis LM, Read JM, Tildesley M. Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England. medRxiv. (2021)
  54. Marshall GC, Skeva R, Jay C, Silva ME, Fyles M, House TC, Davis E, Pi L, Medley GF, Quilty BJ, Dyson L. Public perceptions and interactions with UK COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate policies, and implications for pandemic infectious disease modelling. F1000Research 11 (2022): 1005.
  55. Southall, E. Tildesley MJ, Dyson L How early can an upcoming critical transition be detected? medRxiv (2022)

* These authors contributed equally to the work.

Thesis and study group publications