Tree Diagrams and Conditional Probability Tools
Purpose: Multi-step problems, where several experiments are carried out in a row, are commonly presented in words and it can be difficult to transform them into a workable mathematical context. Tree diagrams are a natural, inuitive method to address these problems and are very helpful when working with conditional probabilities, a core concept.
Topics Covered: We explain multi-step problems and discuss conditional probabilities and independence in this context. We demonstrate how to create and use tree diagrams to solve these problems. We introduce the Law of Total Probability and Bayes Theorem, two key techniques when making the most out of conditional probabilities.
Intended Learning Outcomes: You should be comfortable in creating and using tree diagrams, and gain experience in turning a problem given in words into something workable. You should understand how to formulate and express conditional probabilities, and be aware of the common mistakes that can happen. You will see the Law of Total Probability and Bayes Theorem and some examples on how to use them.
Tree Diagrams and Conditional Probability Refresher
Useful Links
2024 AQA Maths Paper 3: Need for Question 18.
STEP Past Papers: The 2021 exams can be found in a zip folder. Need for Q12.
Sections
Random Variables and Probability Distribution
Contact
stats dot ug dot support at warwick dot ac dot uk