Rebecca Turner (MRC Biostatistics Unit)

Bias adjustment in evidence synthesis

Policy decisions often require synthesis of evidence from multiple sources, and the source studies typically vary in rigour and in relevance to the target question. Rigour (or internal bias) reflects how well a study estimates its intended parameters. In a study comparing the effectiveness of two interventions, rigour varies according to use of randomisation, degree of blinding and attrition levels. Relevance (or external bias) reflects how similar the source study design is to the target setting, with respect to study population, outcomes and interventions. In this talk, methods for allowing for internal and external biases in evidence synthesis are presented, and illustrated through application to examples in antenatal care and obesity. A generic bias modelling approach allows decisions to be based on all available evidence, with less rigorous or less relevant evidence discounted using computationally simple methods.

Philip Dawid (University of Cambridge

Theory and Applications of Proper Scoring Rules

We give an overview of the theory of proper scoring rules, and some recent applications.

A proper scoring rule encourages honest assessment of personal probabilities. It can also be used to define general entropy functions, discrepancy functions, M-estimators, etc., and to extend composite likelihood methods.

We have recently characterised those proper local scoring rules that can be computed without requiring the normalising constant of the density. This property is valuable for many purposes, including Bayesian model selection with improper priors.

Speaker: David Bowie (Hymans Robertson)

Is investment risk irrelevant in actuarial work?

David Bowie joined Hymans Robertson in September 2000 as Head of Quantitative Analysis and was made a partner in 2002. Previously he worked in academia in both Edinburgh and Cape Town, where he qualified as an actuary and obtained a PhD in statistics. His role encompasses developing and maintaining the Firm's quantitative models and contributing to all aspects of strategic asset allocation advice and advice on structuring institutional investment funds. He is Chairman of the Board of Examiners for the Actuarial Profession and has served on the Council of the Faculty of Actuaries. He is also a Director of the Institute for Quantitative Investment Research.