Our Seminars
Fri 7 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - JIan XieS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Investments And Innovation With Non-Rival Inputs: Evidence From Chinese Artificial Intelligence Startups Fields: Innovation And Entrepreneurship Supervisors: Daniel Sgroi, James Fenske |
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Mon 10 Oct, '22- |
Economic History Seminar - Eric Schneider (LSE)S2.79Title: Worldwide Child Stunting since the Nineteenth Century Abstract: This paper conducts a meta-analysis of 877 historical child growth studies to reconstruct child stunting rates, the share of children who are too short for their age, for 121 countries from the earliest date possible to the present. This data complements and extends the modern Joint Malnutrition Estimates database of country-level stunting rates, which begins in the 1980s. We find that many European countries had stunting rates similar to current LMICs at the turn of the twenti- eth century, but child stunting fell in the early twentieth century reaching very low levels before World War II. Stunting rates were also very high in Japan and Korea. However, stunting rates were surprisingly low historically in the European settler colonies, Eastern Europe and the Caribbean. Historical comparisons of child stunting add a new dimension to the historical health transition and allow for more direct historical lessons for the fight against stunting today. |
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Mon 10 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Gianni MarcianteS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: When Nation Building Goes South: Draft Evasion, Government Repression, And The Origins Of The Sicilian Mafia Fields: Economic History, Political Economy Supervisors: James Fenske, Sharun Mukand |
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Mon 10 Oct, '22- |
Econometrics Seminar - David Frazier (Monash)S2.79Title: Solving the Forecasting Combination Puzzle (with Ryan Zischke, Gael M. Martin and Donald Poskitt)
Abstract: We demonstrate that the so-called forecasting combination puzzle is a consequence of the methodology commonly used to produce forecast combinations. By the combination puzzle, we refer to the empirical finding that predictions formed by combining multiple forecasts in ways that seek to optimize forecast performance often do not out-perform more naive, e.g. equally-weighted, approaches. In particular, we demonstrate that, due to the manner in which such forecasts are typically produced, tests that aim to discriminate between the predictive accuracy of such competing combinations can have low power, and can lack size control, leading to an outcome that favors the simpler approach. In short, we show that this counter-intuitive result can be completely avoided by the adoption of more efficient estimation strategies in the production of the combinations, when feasible. We illustrate these findings both in the context of forecasting a functional of interest and in terms of predictive densities. |
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Tue 11 Oct, '22- |
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - David Schonholzer (IIES)S2.79Title: School Capital Expenditure Rules, Student Outcomes, and Real Estate Capitalization (joint work with Barbara Biasi and Julien Lafortune) |
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Wed 12 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk sessions - Eleonora AlabreseS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: When Nation Building Goes South: Draft Evasion, Government Repression, And The Origins Of The Sicilian Mafia Fields: Economic History, Political Economy Supervisors: James Fenske, Sharun Mukand |
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Wed 12 Oct, '22- |
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Parama Chaudhury (UCL)S0.18Title: Adaptable Economics Education - What, Why and How (joint with Cloda Jenkins, Imperial College) Abstract: In this presentation, we provide guidance for instructors looking to move to an adaptable learning design for their economics courses, as well as preliminary evidence of its evaluation at UCL. We use the term “adaptable” as it embraces both online and face-to-face elements and is designed to make moving in between the two delivery methods relatively easy. This is of course particularly relevant in light of the pandemic disruption but may also be considered to be a helpful direction of travel in an uncertain world in order to make the higher education system more resilient to shocks. In this context, “adaptable” is not equivalent to hybrid, that is, teaching online and in-person students simultaneously. The two main reasons for this are that we aim to include multiple models of adaptable education here, which could include a hybrid option, and that in general hybrid models are the most difficult to deliver successfully and should be avoided where possible. Organised by Subhasish Dey |
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Wed 12 Oct, '22- |
CRETA Theory Seminar - Lucas Maestri (FGV)S2.79Title: Dynamic Contracting with Multiple Agents under Limited Commitment We consider an environment of dynamic contracting with multiple agents and lack of commitment. A principal with no commitment power would like to screen efficient workers over time and assign harder tasks to them. After efficiency is revealed, the principal becomes tempted to change the terms of trade. |
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Thu 13 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Giulia VattuoneS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Worker Sorting And The Gender Wage Gap Fields: Labour Supervisors: Roland Rathelot, Manuel Bagues |
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Thu 13 Oct, '22- |
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Soledad Artiz PrillamanS2.79 |
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Thu 13 Oct, '22- |
Macro/International Seminar - Jonathan Hazel (LSE)S2.79 |
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Fri 14 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Diego CalderonS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Belief-Driven Fluctuations, Global Imbalances And Equilibrium Dynamics Fields: Macro, Theory Supervisors: Roger Farmer, Herakles Polemarchakis, Pablo Beker |
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Mon 17 Oct, '22- |
Economic History Seminar - Maria Waldinger (IFO Institute Munich)S2.79Title: The Revolution Suffocates Its Children - The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Air Pollution in Socialist East Germany Abstract: Measuring the detrimental effects of air pollution on individuals is difficult. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging a natural experiment occurring in socialist East Germany in the 1980s. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the Soviet Union reduced and capped East Germany’s access to imported fossil fuels, leading the socialist party dictatorship to rapidly substitute Soviet oil with domestic brown coal at the cost of increased ambient air pollution. Comparing regions within East Germany with and without natural brown coal deposits, we find that the switch to brown coal led to an immediate and permanent increase in mortality (?), infant mortality and a reduction in birth weights. We use administrative social security data after German reunification to show that, in the next 40 years, individuals that lived in areas within the GDR exposed to the shift to brown coal spent less time in employment, earned lower wages and retired earlier. The authoritarian nature of the East German government makes this natural experiment particularly insightful by ruling out spatial sorting behaviour, competitive housing markets, and labour market adjustments as channels through which the estimated effects of air pollution could have been confounded. |
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Mon 17 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Aruhan ShiS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Can An Ai Agent Hit A Moving Target Fields: Macro, Theory Supervisors: Roger Farmer, Herakles Polemarchakis |
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Tue 18 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Livia Silva ParanhosS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Heterogeneous Local Projections: An Application To Firm Investment Fields: Macro, Econometrics Supervisors: Giovanni Ricco, Ana Galvao (Wbs) |
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Tue 18 Oct, '22- |
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE)S2.79Title: Predicting Long-term Unemployment Risk - Andreas Mueller (UT Austin) & Johannes Spinnewijn (LSE) Abstract: This paper uses rich administrative and survey data from Sweden to study the predictability and determinants of long-term unemployment (LTU) over the period 1992-2016. We use standard machine learning techniques to predict job seekers' LTU risk and find substantial predictable heterogeneity. Compared to a model using standard socio-demographic variables, a comprehensive model that uses data on income, employment and benefit histories more than doubles the predictive power. The estimated heterogeneity in LTU risk implies that at least two thirds of the observed duration dependence in job finding is driven by dynamic selection. We apply our prediction algorithm over the business cycle and find significant heterogeneity underlying the cyclicality in average LTU risk, while the role of composition effects is limited. We evaluate the implied value of targeting unemployment policies and how this changes over the business cycle. |
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Wed 19 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Velichka DimitrovaS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: The Fertility Impact Of Mass Return Migration Fields: Economic History, Labour Supervisors: James Fenske, Manuel Bagues |
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Wed 19 Oct, '22- |
CRETA Seminar - Ann-Katrin Roesler (Toronto)S2.79Title: How informed do you want your principal to be? (joint with Rahul Deb and Mallesh Pay) |
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Thu 20 Oct, '22- |
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Avidit AcharyaS2.79 |
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Thu 20 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Ceren Bengu CibikS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Avoiding Dissonant Information Fields: Behavioural Economics, Experimental Economics Supervisors: |
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Fri 21 Oct, '22- |
Economics PhD job talk session - Raghav MalhotraS2.77 Cowling RoomTitle: Price Changes And Welfare Analysis: Measurement Under Individual Heterogeniety Fields: Theory, Public, Labour Supervisors: Herakles Polemarchakis, Robert Akerlof, Costas Cavounidis |
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Mon 24 Oct, '22- |
Econometrics Seminar - Patrick Gagliardini (Lugano)S2.79Title: Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factorsin short panels Alain-Philippe Fortin, Patrick Gagliardini, Olivier Scaillet |
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Tue 25 Oct, '22- |
Applied Economics, Econometrics & Public Policy (CAGE) Seminar - Barbara Biasi (Yale SoM)S2.79Title: The Education-Innovation Gap. |
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Wed 26 Oct, '22- |
Teaching & Learning Seminar - Ralf Becker (Manchester)S0.20Title: Using an Online Interactive Textbook for Content Delivery in a large on-campus Mathematics for Economists course. The Covid pandemic forced lecturers to rethink the way content is delivered to students. Live online lectures and pre-recorded video recordings became standard tools of synchronous and asynchronous content delivery respectively. Reading materials (textbooks or lecture provided notes) also often supplement the content delivery, but are not usually used as the sole source of new content. We present summary findings regarding the use of an online, interactive textbook-type resource. This resource combined text-based content delivery with interspersed pre-recorded online videos and questions (with instantaneous feedback to students) to check students’ understanding. This resource was produced for a large Mathematics for Economists unit with 900+ students in the pandemic affected academic years 2020/21 and 2021/22. In the second of these years this resource was used despite on-campus lectures being available again as a tool. While the online textbook was used to deliver the content asynchronously, there were twice-weekly Review and Q&A sessions in which students could bring up any questions and problems and in which the lecturer would review some of the key concepts introduced in the online lessons. We present findings on the usage pattern of the resource as well as student feedback. The student feedback presented, leads to the conclusion that, even as on-campus lecture delivery is becoming available again, a future blend of learning activities can include substantial asynchronous content delivery. This flipped classroom setup is attractive as it can create the space in synchronous meetings to focus on active student learning which has proved to contribute positively to learning outcomes (Freeman et al . (2014). The online textbook allows us to observe patterns of study we cannot normally observe. The amount of time spend on the learning resource and its timing as well as the engagement with the feedback questions allows us to identify some of the study patterns of successful and less successful students. Organiser: Subhasish Dey |
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Wed 26 Oct, '22- |
#EconTEAching seminar: "How mobile is an Education-focused career in Economics: What do institutions look for?ZoomPanel: Chair: Cloda Jenkins (Imperial) Co-organiser: Stefania Paredes Fuentes to attend on Zoom, register here before Monday 24th October. |
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Thu 27 Oct, '22- |
PEPE (Political Economy & Public Economics) Seminar - Laura Schechter (Wisc)S2.79TItle: Brokering Votes with Information Spread via Social Networks (with R Duarte, F Finan, H Larreguy) |
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Mon 31 Oct, '22- |
Econometrics Seminar - Martin Weidner (Oxford)S2.79Title: Bounds on Average Effects in Discrete Choice Panel Data (joint with Cavit Pakel). Abstract: Average effects in discrete choice panel data models with individual-specific fixed effects are generally only partially identified in short panels. While consistent estimation of the identified set is possible, it generally requires very large sample sizes, especially when the number of support points of the observed covariates is large, such as when the covariates are continuous. In this paper, we propose estimating outer bounds on the identified set of average effects. Our bounds are easy to construct, converge at the parametric rate, and are computationally simple to obtain even in moderately large samples, independent of whether the covariates are discrete or continuous. We also provide asymptotically valid confidence intervals on the identified set. Simulation studies confirm that our approach works well and is informative in finite samples. We also consider an application to labor force participation. |
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Tue 1 Nov, '22- |
CAGE Seminar - Frank SchilbachS2.79 via MS Teams |
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Tue 1 Nov, '22- |
CAGE Seminar - Awa Ambra Seck (Harvard)S2.79Title: Age Set vs. Kin: Culture and Financial Ties in East Africa. Abstract: We study how social organization shapes patterns of economic interaction and the effects of national policy, focusing on the distinction between age-based and kin-based groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by ethnographic accounts suggesting that this distinction affects redistribution, we ana- lyze a cash transfer program in Kenya and find that in age-based societies there are consumption spillovers within the age cohort, but not the extended family, while in kin-based societies we find the opposite. Next, we document that social structure shapes the impact of policy by showing that Uganda’s pension program had positive effects on child nutrition only in kin-based societies.
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Wed 2 Nov, '22- |
CRETA Theory Seminar - Marcus Pivato (Cergy Paris)S2.79Title. Weighted representative democracy |