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Q-Step Online Seminar: "Terrorism, Trust, and Ethnic Identification in Nigeria"

The next Q-Step research seminar will take place on Zoom next Monday, 15th June, 2pm–3pm.

Robin Harding, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, https://www.robinharding.org/

"Terrorism, Trust, and Ethnic Identification: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Nigeria"

Abstract: Terrorism is increasingly a problem across Africa, but as yet little work has sought to investigate its political effects. Studies in Europe and the US suggest that terrorist attacks can increase political trust, but it is unclear whether we should expect these findings to hold in a context where political institutions are often fragile, and where political violence is frequent. We investigate this question in Nigeria, where terrorism has been widespread and increasing over the past decade. Making use of unexpected attacks by the extremist group Boko Haram, which occurred during the fieldwork of a public opinion survey, we show that even in a context of weak state institutions and frequent terrorist activities terrorist attacks significantly increase political trust. Previous studies in other contexts have attributed such effects to a "rally round the flag" mechanism, whereby people look to national state institutions as the legitimate source of security in the face of terrorist threat. A further implication of this argument is that terrorism should result in a stronger sense of collective national identity. Counter to this, we find that terror attacks in this context actually reduce the salience of respondents' national identity, instead significantly increasing ethnic identification. This fits with arguments from social psychology which suggest that fear and insecurity can lead people to identify more strongly with their in-group. These findings have important implications for understanding the political effects of terrorism in contexts where society is divided along ethnic lines and where ethnic divisions are politically salient.

Zoom link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/2747390271?pwd=NVNnYVBOUGNvWndyckxHQXlwczJpZz09

Meeting ID: 274 739 0271

Password: 1234


Andreas Murr correctly predicted a big win for Conservatives

Andreas Murr and his team correctly predicted on the 4th of December a big majority for the Conservatives.

His approach based on "citizen forecasts" ranks 2nd for the Conservatives and 5th for Labour in terms of accuracy among 19 pre-election seat forecasts. You can read more about his forecast on the LSE British Politics and Policy blog and about the other 18 forecasts on Steve Fisher's Electionsetc blog.


East Asia Study Group Special Seminar by Prof. Richard Samuels (MIT) on Japanese intelligence community

We are delighted to invite Professor Richard Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Studies at MIT, as a special guest speaker for our East Asia Study Group (EASG) seminar.

Professor Samuels will discuss the evolution of Japan’s intelligence community and its future, based on his 6th book from Cornell University Press, Special Duty: A history of the Japanese Intelligence Community (published in October 2019). He is one of the very most distinguished international experts on Japanese politics. Professors Chris Hughes, Richard Aldrich, and Chris Moran will be hosting this talk. Although this event is out of term time, we are very fortunate to have Professor Samuels visit, and really hope you can make the effort to attend. A private book signing will take place immediately after the talk. If you plan to attend this seminar, please email easg@warwick.ac.uk.

Further details below:

Title: Special Duty: A History of the Japanese Intelligence Community

Time: 17 December 2019, 15:00-17:00

Venue: Council Chamber, Senate House

Abstract:

Intelligence communities are everywhere and always in motion. Japan's has been no exception, often shifting in response to dramatic analytical and organisational failures, changes in the regional and global balance, and sudden technological developments. In the first half of the 20th century, Japan had a full spectrum intelligence apparatus. This came apart with defeat in WWII and subordination to the United States. After the Cold War, shifts in the security environment and major intelligence failures stimulated rethinking by Tokyo. Following a period of half-hearted and incomplete reforms, the Japanese government began to enhance its collection and analysis capabilities, and to tackle in earnest the dysfunctional stovepipes and leak-prone practices hampering its intelligence system. Where do matters stand today?

Fri 01 Nov 2019, 13:51 | Tags: Front, Staff, PhD, MA, UG, Comparative Politics and Democratisation

How To Predict Election Results

Andreas Murr has published an article in the British Journal of Political Science on why vote expectations are a better tool for predicting election results than vote intentions. 

The results of the article are summarised in a post on the LSE's British Politics and Policy Blog.


Tom Long publishes article on intervention and democracy in Latin America

Dr Tom Long has published a new article in Perspectives on Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association. The article, "The Promise of Precommitment in Democracy and Human Rights: The Hopeful, Forgotten Failure of the Larreta Doctrine," draws on multinational archival research to contribute to ongoing debates over how to square the protection of human rights and democracy with sovereign protections against intervention in Latin America. The article is coauthored with the historian Max Paul Friedman of American University. Tom's underlying research was funded by the British Academy, British Council, Truman Library Institute, and Fulbright Commission.

The article can be accessed for free via PDF: The Promise of Precommitment in Democracy and Human Rights: The Hopeful, Forgotten Failure of the Larreta Doctrine.


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