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Andreas Murr correctly predicted a big win for Conservatives

Andreas Murr and his team correctly predicted on the 4th of December a big majority for the Conservatives.

His approach based on "citizen forecasts" ranks 2nd for the Conservatives and 5th for Labour in terms of accuracy among 19 pre-election seat forecasts. You can read more about his forecast on the LSE British Politics and Policy blog and about the other 18 forecasts on Steve Fisher's Electionsetc blog.

East Asia Study Group Special Seminar by Prof. Richard Samuels (MIT) on Japanese intelligence community

We are delighted to invite Professor Richard Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Studies at MIT, as a special guest speaker for our East Asia Study Group (EASG) seminar.

Professor Samuels will discuss the evolution of Japan’s intelligence community and its future, based on his 6th book from Cornell University Press, Special Duty: A history of the Japanese Intelligence Community (published in October 2019). He is one of the very most distinguished international experts on Japanese politics. Professors Chris Hughes, Richard Aldrich, and Chris Moran will be hosting this talk. Although this event is out of term time, we are very fortunate to have Professor Samuels visit, and really hope you can make the effort to attend. A private book signing will take place immediately after the talk. If you plan to attend this seminar, please email

Further details below:

Title: Special Duty: A History of the Japanese Intelligence Community

Time: 17 December 2019, 15:00-17:00

Venue: Council Chamber, Senate House


Intelligence communities are everywhere and always in motion. Japan's has been no exception, often shifting in response to dramatic analytical and organisational failures, changes in the regional and global balance, and sudden technological developments. In the first half of the 20th century, Japan had a full spectrum intelligence apparatus. This came apart with defeat in WWII and subordination to the United States. After the Cold War, shifts in the security environment and major intelligence failures stimulated rethinking by Tokyo. Following a period of half-hearted and incomplete reforms, the Japanese government began to enhance its collection and analysis capabilities, and to tackle in earnest the dysfunctional stovepipes and leak-prone practices hampering its intelligence system. Where do matters stand today?

Fri 01 Nov 2019, 13:51 | Tags: Front, Staff, PhD, MA, UG, Comparative Politics and Democratisation

How To Predict Election Results

Andreas Murr has published an article in the British Journal of Political Science on why vote expectations are a better tool for predicting election results than vote intentions. 

The results of the article are summarised in a post on the LSE's British Politics and Policy Blog.

Tom Long publishes article on intervention and democracy in Latin America

Dr Tom Long has published a new article in Perspectives on Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association. The article, "The Promise of Precommitment in Democracy and Human Rights: The Hopeful, Forgotten Failure of the Larreta Doctrine," draws on multinational archival research to contribute to ongoing debates over how to square the protection of human rights and democracy with sovereign protections against intervention in Latin America. The article is coauthored with the historian Max Paul Friedman of American University. Tom's underlying research was funded by the British Academy, British Council, Truman Library Institute, and Fulbright Commission.

The article can be accessed for free via PDF: The Promise of Precommitment in Democracy and Human Rights: The Hopeful, Forgotten Failure of the Larreta Doctrine.

Tom Long Writes New Article on Colombian Foreign Policy

Tom Long's new article, "Domestic contestation and presidential prerogative in Colombian foreign policy,” has just been published by the Bulletin of Latin American Research. The article is co-authored with Sebastian Bitar and Gabriel Jiménez Peña. The article pushes back against the dominant presidentialist focus in the study of Colombian foreign policy. Drawing on insights from recent foreign policy analysis literature and evidence from several cases (Plan Colombia, US military bases, free trade talks with China, and ICJ arbitration of a maritime border with Nicaragua), this article challenges commonplace presidentialist assumptions. A novel model of ‘contested presidentialism’ better captures how Colombian domestic actors mobilise to raise political costs to block or modify presidential preferences. Research for the piece started during Tom's British Council Researcher Links visit to Colombia and then was advanced during Sebastian's time at Warwick as an IAS Visiting Fellow. During the latter visit, an earlier version of the paper was presented at PAIS.

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