We are delighted to announce that three members of the Department of Economics have been successful in becoming Warwick International Higher Education Academy (WIHEA) Fellows 2023.

WIHEA is the UK’s first institutional academy of educators for staff and students engaged in the advancement of learning and teaching excellence and has become the collective institutional voice on learning and teaching and the academic student experience.

The WIHEA Fellowship 2023 has been awarded to Dr Atisha Ghosh (Assistant Professor), Dr Isleide Zissimos (Senior Teaching Fellow) and Dr Juliana Cunha Carneiro Pinto (Teaching Fellow). They join a community of 85 Fellows from across the University and 3 WIHEA Fellows from the Department of Economics: Professor Caroline Elliott, Dr Lory Barile and Dr Emil Kostadinov.

The WIHEA Fellows commit to the role and making an institutional contribution to learning and teaching at Warwick for 3 years.

Find out more about each new WIHEA Fellows and what they said about this new opportunity:

Dr Isleide Zissimos

“With a background in Economics, my expertise lies at the intersection of teaching and learning across disciplines, as well as in the administration of joint programmes.  I also have a keen interest in researching the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on student learning and performance.

As a WIHEA fellow I am interested in actively contributing to projects centred around interdisciplinarity and to explore opportunities to evaluate AI-based tools that can enhance student inclusivity and foster widening participation.”

Dr Isleide Zissimos is a Senior Teaching Fellow and Director of UG Studies (Joint Degrees), member of the Political Economy Research Group within the Department of Economics. View her staff profile.

 

Dr Atisha Ghosh

“As the Academic Careers Coordinator for the Department of Economics, I am interested in linking and embedding employability skills in the structure of modules. I have experience in organising groupwork assessments as well as conducting research in understanding the efficacies and uptake of groupwork among students and lecturers.

As a fellow, I would like to actively continue my work on skills development. I am also keen to participate in projects related to designing and assessing groupwork, co-creation and pedagogic research.”

Dr Atisha Ghosh is Assistant Professor (Teaching Focussed) and Academic Careers Coordinator in the Department of Economics. View her staff profile.

 

Dr Juliana Cunha Carneiro Pinto

“I am a Teaching Fellow in Economics. Prior to joining Warwick, I taught at the LSE and the University of Birmingham. Pastoral care is especially close to my heart as the new Advisor for Students with Disabilities at the Department of Economics, and I am looking forward to working on developing enhanced support and guidance to students with disabilities.

I also hope that I will be able to contribute to the discussions on how to enhance teaching and learning outcomes for students and staff, particularly for the disabled and from widening participation background.”

Dr Juliana Cunha Carneiro Pinto is Teaching Fellow and Advisor for Students with Disabilities in the Department of Economics at Warwick. View her staff profile.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is launching a new Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to build on its Quarterly Economic Survey and to develop policies to get the economy and business growing.

Dennis Novy, CAGE Impact Director and Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick, has been appointed as a member of the board.

The Council will bring together respected national and international economists and business leaders to provide expert advice and feedback to the BCC. Its work will be focused on supporting the BCC's long-standing and renowned programme of business research.

Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the BCC, said, 'We're a year out on a General Election and now is a pivotal moment for business. That is why we have set up an Economic Advisory Council to help shape and guide our economic policies to boost the UK's growth and prosperity.

'...I'm thrilled to have such a diverse range of prominent economic and business experts join us at the BCC. These people are national and global leaders in their fields and they will help guide and shape our economic priorities and focus into the future. Our aim is to fuse the practical acumen of entrepreneurs with the technical expertise of economists to help produce policy that will make a real difference to the UK's growth prospects.'

In response to his appointment, Dennis Novy said, 'I am delighted to be joining the Economic Advisory Council. The British Chambers of Commerce play a key role in helping businesses and their employees up and down the country to succeed in a challenging economic environment. These links also contribute to the public debate on economic policy.'

Membership of the EAC:

Vicky Pryce Former Head of Government Economics Service

Ben Allen Proposition Leader, Financial Sponsors and Executives, Coutts Bank

Steven Gray UK Export Finance Representative, West & Central Africa

Martin Shelford Start-up founder and business strategist

Adam Uszpolewicz Former CEO of Aviva Poland

Dame Teresa Graham Former Deputy Chair of the Better Regulation Commission, Chair of the Administrative Burdens Advisory Board (HMRC), Chair of the UK Finance SME Advisory Group

Professor Mairi Spowage Director, Fraser of Allander Institute

Professor Dennis Novy Professor of Economics, Warwick University

View Dennis Novy's staff profile

The Department of Economics was this year's host for the Economic History Society (EHS) Annual Conference. Founded in 1926, the EHS is a registered charity aiming to promote the study of economic and social history.

The conference took place from 31 March to 2 April in Ramphal where over 250 delegates from around the world gathered to present over 100 papers by academics, 37 papers by new researchers, and 22 posters by graduate students.

The programme of the conference featured multiple parallel sessions including Reforms in Eastern Europe, Economic Geography, The Legacies of Colonialism, Social Mobility and Exclusion, Agricultural History, Health, and Political Economy, just to name a few.

Presenters from Warwick Economics were, in order of appearance:

New researcher sessions

• Jinlin Wei, PhD student, Financial development and patents during the First Industrial Revolution: England and Wales.
• Cora Neumann, PhD student, Women's property rights and fertility: Evidence from 19th and 20th-century United State.
• Yuchen Lin, PhD student, Gender equalisation meets unequal gender norms: University co-education in 1920s China.

Friday plenary session

• Professor Daniel Sgroi, Measuring national wellbeing in the past. This lecture is available to watch on the EHS webpage Plenary LecturesLink opens in a new window.

Academic sessions

• Professor James Fenske, Decolonisation and the efficiency of public goods provision: Evidence from India.
• Professor Bishnupriya Gupta, Conflict and gender norms: Evidence from India.
• Dr Gianni Marciante, former PhD student now Post-doc at the University of Bologna, Women's education and fertility in Italy at the onset of the demographic transition.
• Dr Eric Melander, former PhD student now Assistant Professor at the University of Birmingham, Brexit and the Blitz: Conflict, collective memory, and Euroscepticism.

The Tawney lecture titled Putting women back into the early modern economy: work, occupations, and economic development was delivered on Sunday by Professor Jane Whittle (University of Exeter).

The Saturday pre-dinner reception was offered by the Department of Economics at Warwick, and it was followed by the Conference dinner where the president, Professor Phillip Schofield (Department of History & Welsh HistoryLink opens in a new window, University of Abertstwyth), who announced prizes for best poster, new researcher paper, and best paper published in the Economic History Review. After dinner, networking continued with a Pub Quiz organised by Warwick students.

A group of staff and PhD students from the Department of Economics provided support to the conference organisers. Dr Claudia Rei from the Department of Economics, who was the local organiser, said:

 

 

"I'm very pleased that the Economic History Society chose Warwick as the host for their Annual Conference. It was a great opportunity for the economic History field, and our students in particular, to come together to share their research findings, and to develop new personal and professional connections."

 

 

 

Related webpages

• About the Economic History Society
• The EHS Annual Conference 2023 programme, posters and videosLink opens in a new window

New researchLink opens in a new window led by the Department of Economics has shed light on how eating and exercise habits changed during lock-down – or, in fact, how they changed a lot less than people believe.

Professor Thijs van RensLink opens in a new window and colleagues surveyed just over 1000 West Midlands residents in May 2020, several weeks into the UK’s strict lockdown when activities outside the home were severely restricted, and again in September 2020 when the rules had been relaxed.

Analysis of the resultsLink opens in a new window showed that for most people, lockdown made very little difference to the number of portions of fruit and vegetables they ate. However, one group bucked the trend – women who, pre-lockdown, commuted for more than 30 minutes to work. This group was the only one to significantly increase the proportion of fruit and vegetables in their diet – West Midlands men who saved significant time commuting did not change their diets.

Commenting on the findings Professor van Rens said:

“There has been widespread speculation that diets became less healthy during lockdown as a result of supply chain challenges and increased difficulty accessing shops and markets, and we wanted to investigate this.

“Perhaps surprisingly, we discovered that overall, people’s diets changed very little. If anything, people ate slightly more fruit and veg during lockdown than afterwards.

“The only group which significantly changed their eating habits were women who would otherwise have been commuting over an hour a day. We speculate that replacing the commute with working from home enabled this group to commit time and energy to exploring healthier meals.”

Survey participants were invited to comment on why their shopping and eating habits had changed during lockdown. Some people actively chose to eat a healthier diet in order to improve their chances of resisting the COVID-19 infection. Others more grudgingly began to cook at home because dining out or ordering food for delivery became too difficult under the lockdown restrictions.

The researchers also asked survey participants to rate their health, their life satisfaction and their mental health. People reported being less happy with their lives during lockdown than afterwards, and reported a significant deterioration in their mental health. Young people in full-time education reported the lowest mental health scores.

Professor van Rens added:

“Our study is one of a very small number which survey the same people both during and after lockdown. This means we can be confident that our results reveal actual behavioural change and are not driven by changes in the survey participants. This may also explain why our findings are different from some previous studies that find large changes in diets.”

• Healthy diets, lifestyle changes and well-being during and after lockdown: longitudinal evidence from the West Midlands. van Rens T, Hanson P, Oyebode O, et al BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health 2022;5: doi: 10.1136/bmjnph-2022-000562
• Listen to a podcast with Professor van Rens discussing the economics of diet and health hereLink opens in a new window.

Two teams from Warwick Economics have been Highly Commended in the recent university-wide Excellence in Gender Equality AwardsLink opens in a new window.  

The Awards Link opens in a new windowwere created by the Athena Swan Self-Assessment Team and the Gender Taskforce to acknowledge commitment to equality, diversity, inclusion and sharing best practice. This year entries were judged by University Provost Professor Chris Ennew, the Chairs of Faculty, and Kulbir Shergill, Director of Social Inclusion.

The two Economics teams recognised for excellence in working towards gender equality were Dr Stefania Paredes Fuentes and the ‘Women in Economics: A Student Workshop’ Team; and the ‘Warwick Women in Economics International Women's Day Conference’ Team.  

The Women in Economics Student WorkshopLink opens in a new window was co-ordinated by Dr Stefania Paredes-Fuentes and a group of undergraduate students with the goal of hearing the student perspective on the debate on female under-representation in the discipline. During the two day event, students from 12 universities gathered in Warwick to present their ideas and to discuss the issues around the lack of diversity in the discipline. Outcomes from the workshop have included the ‘Economics for All’ guide with 7 Action Points to promote diversity in Economics, and the foundation of the Warwick Women in EconomicsLink opens in a new window (WWiE) society.  

The judges said that the Workshop “was a great initiative and event, which definitely demonstrated sharing good practice and meeting of the criteria for commitment to gender equality (and wider inclusivity) and delivering on a specific project.” 

The second Highly Commended Economics team was the 15-strong student team behind the 2022 WWiE International Women's Day conferenceLink opens in a new window. The IWD event was the society’s first in-person conference and attracted more than 80 attendees and 100 online participants. The aim of the day was to raise awareness of the different career paths available for female economics graduates.  

Milena Ermolenko, the society’s Vice-President, said “It was a huge achievement for the team to organise our society’s first large-scale in-person event and the high attendance confirms its success. The conference offered economics students a platform to raise their voice, ask questions about their degree, and become more curious about their future career prospects.  

“We are delighted that WWiE has been recognised for our contribution to equality, diversity and inclusion, and our commitment to building more inclusive environments and experiences through everyday behaviours at the University of Warwick.  

“The judges described our International Women’s Day Conference 2022 as ‘a successful and well-attended event.’ We intend to make it bigger and better in spring 2023.” 

Professor Sascha Becker, who divides his time between Warwick and Monash University, Australia, has been elected as a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the understanding of society.

He is one of a group of 34 researchers chosen for this honour, among whom are leaders in human geography, autism, international security, Indigenous health and cultural property law.

The 2022 new Fellows include three Indigenous leaders—Professors Tom Calma, Bronwyn Fredericks, and Jakelin Troy—and former WA Premier, Professor Geoff Gallop.

Academy President Professor Richard Holden said: ‘These new Fellows represent the best and brightest minds from around the country. They are at the forefront of social science research and public policy.

‘I congratulate the new Fellows on their election. It is one of the most prestigious forms of recognition of their enormous contribution to our society. Their work helps all of us to better understand what it is to be human and to participate in our society and shape its institutions.”

Professor Becker said: “I am very happy to have been elected as Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. It is not only an honour to join this circle of esteemed colleagues in the social sciences, but also an obligation to continue to produce research for the benefit of society and public policy.

“I am thankful to the academics who nominated me and to the Academy Fellows for electing me.”

A video introducing the new Fellows can be found on the Academy YouTube channel and information about each new Fellow can be found here Link opens in a new windowand on the Academy’s social channels @AcadSocSci.

—ENDS—

New Fellows elected to the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia in 2022 are:

Professor Rachel Ankeny FASSA, Departments of History and Philosophy, School of Humanities, The University of Adelaide

Professor Sascha Becker FASSA, Xiaokai Yang Chair of Business and Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University

Professor Peng Bi FASSA, Professor of Public Health and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide

Professor Kathy Bowrey FASSA, Faculty of Law & Justice, School of Law, Society and Criminology, UNSW Sydney

Professor Robert Breunig FASSA, Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute and Chair of Tax Policy and Public Finance, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Professor Henry Brodaty AO FASSA FAHMS, Scientia Professor and Co-Director, Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, UNSW Sydney

Professor Tom Calma AO FASSA FAA, Chancellor, University of Canberra

Professor Mandy Cheng FASSA, School of Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney

Professor Monica Cuskelly FASSA, Professor, School of Education and Director of Research, Applied Research Centre for Disability and Wellbeing, College of Arts, Law and Education, University of Tasmania

Professor Cheryl Dissanayake AM FASSA, Director and Chair, Olga Tennison Autism Research Centre, School of Psychology and Public Health, La Trobe University

Professor Kim Dovey FASSA, Chair of Architecture & Urban Design, Melbourne School of Design, University of Melbourne

Professor Michele Ford FASSA, Professor of Southeast Asian Studies and Director, Sydney Southeast Asia Centre, The University of Sydney

Professor Michelle Foster FASSA, Professor and Director, Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School, University of Melbourne

Professor Bronwyn Fredericks FASSA, Pro Vice-Chancellor (Indigenous Engagement), University of Queensland

Professor Marylene Gagne FASSA, John Curtin Distinguished Professor, Future of Work Institute, Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University

Professor Emeritus Geoff Gallop AC FASSA, Emeritus Professor, University of Sydney

Professor Lisa Given FASSA, Professor of Information Sciences and Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies & School of Computing Technologies, RMIT University

Professor Evelyn Goh FASSA, Shedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, The Australian National University

Professor Anita Harris FASSA, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

Professor Guyonne Kalb FASSA, Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne

Professor Emerita Grace Karskens FASSA FAHA, School of Humanities and Languages, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW Sydney

Professor Simon Killcross FASSA, Professor and Head of School of Psychology, UNSW Sydney

Professor Janet McColl-Kennedy FASSA, Professor of Marketing and Director of Research, UQ Business School, University of Queensland

Professor Sharynne McLeod FASSA, Professor of Speech and Language Acquisition, School of Education, Faculty of Arts and Education, Charles Sturt University

Professor Francesca Merlan FASSA, Professor Emerita, School of Archaeology and Anthropology, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, The Australian National University

Professor Tiffany Morrison FASSA, Professorial Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University

Professor Hans Pols FASSA FAHA, School of History and Philosophy of Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney

Professor Ben Saul FASSA, Challis Chair of International Law, Sydney Law School, The University of Sydney

Professor Brad Sherman FASSA, School of Law, University of Queensland

Professor Russell Smyth FASSA, Department of Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University

Professor Deborah Street FASSA, Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation (CHERE), University of Technology Sydney

Professor Jakelin Troy FASSA, Professor, Department of Linguistics and Director, Indigenous Research, Office of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research, The University of Sydney

Professor Harald van Heerde FASSA, Research Professor of Marketing, School of Marketing, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney

Professor Roger Wilkins FASSA, Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Business and Economics

In the UK, small and medium size firms (SMEs - firms with less than 250 employees) are very important to the economy: they account for three fifths of the employment and around half of turnover in the UK private sector. So, it is not surprising that the UK government has a wide variety of initiatives to support small business growth, from loans to technical advice.

However, one feature of the UK tax system may be actively discouraging the growth of SMEs - the requirement to register for VAT once taxable turnover exceeds the threshold, currently £85,000.

Crossing the threshold usually increases the amount of VAT paid by a firm, and also incurs costs in complying with the rules, such as completing VAT returns. Are these costs sufficiently off-putting that firms deliberately restrict their growth in order to stay below the threshold?

To explore this question Professor Ben Lockwood, Dr Li Liu, senior economist at the International Monetary Fund and Dr Eddy Tam of King’s College London have studied the effect of the threshold on growth using HMRC data on all firms in the UK between 2004-5 and 2014-15.

They find that annual growth in turnover starts to slow when a firm’s turnover gets to within about £20,000 of the threshold and slows by up to 2 percentage points as firms get closer to the threshold - a slowdown of up to 25 percent in the growth rate. There is no evidence of compensating acceleration in growth once a firm crosses the threshold. The research finds similar effects of the threshold on the growth of non-incorporated businesses such as sole traders, partnerships, and unincorporated associations.

To explore this effect further the paper also compares data from firms that are voluntarily registered for VAT (even when their turnover is below the VAT threshold) with firms that are not registered, and finds a sharp difference between these two types of firms as they approach the threshold - voluntary registered firms do not slow down at all, whereas the other firms slow down sharply, with growth falling 3-4 percentage points.

The researchers also look at differences between firms that join the flat rate scheme (FRS), a simplified VAT scheme for small businesses in the UK that is explicitly designed to reduce compliance costs, and those that do not. A firm's VAT liability in the FRS is a single rate of tax times the total turnover of the business. As a result, the FRS is effectively a turnover tax, and only requires businesses to keep track of total turnover rather than a separate record of each purchase and sale, and should be less burdensome than regular VAT. They find that firms that register for VAT via the FRS slow down less before the VAT threshold than those that do not, so the FRS does appear to mitigate the effect of the threshold.

Professor Lockwood comments: “Our analysis finds robust evidence that growth in turnover slows down as firms approach the threshold, with no evidence of higher growth when the threshold is passed. We conclude that by setting the threshold for VAT registration at this relatively high level the government is inadvertently inhibiting the growth of small firms.”

• Read Professor Lockwood’s blogLink opens in a new window, explaining the findings in more detail
• Li Liu, Ben Lockwood and Eddy Tam (2022), Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold: Evidence for the UK CAGE working paper No. 631

Residents of Coventry and Warwickshire were able to hear from Professor Omer Moav about a 17-year research project which has challenged conventional ways of thinking about the origins of civilisation itself, thanks to the ESRC Festival of Social Science and the Warwick Institute of Engagement.

Professor Moav’s public lecture took place in the beautiful surroundings of St. Mary's Guildhall in Coventry on the evening of Wednesday 26^th October.

It was one of the first events of this year’s ESRC FestivalLink opens in a new window programme.

Professor Moav gave an engaging presentation of his research, which was done in collaboration with colleagues at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Reichman University, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and the Barcelona School of Economics.

The work challenges the long-established view, dating back to Adam Smith (1723-1790), that complex, hierarchical societies were able to develop thanks to the transition from foraging to farming which created a surplus of food in fertile areas.

Professor Moav explained that his research has shown that it was not farming surplus that affected the development of civilisations, but rather the types of crops grown. The key factor in the development of complex states is the suitability of land to cereal farming, because cereals require to be harvested and stored above ground, making them vulnerable to appropriation by tax collectors. When it became possible to appropriate crops, a taxing elite emerged, eventually leading to the state.

In addition to having the opportunity to attend in person Professor Moav’s lecture was livestreamed via the Warwick Institute of Engagement YouTube channel. It can be watched here Link opens in a new window.

Reflecting upon the event Professor Moav said:

“The ESRC Festival of Social Sciences was the perfect opportunity for me to share the seventeen years of research underpinning my article with Joram Mayshar and Luigi Pascali “The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?” published in the Journal of Political Economy, with interested members of the general public.

“I would recommend participating in future ESRC Festivals of Social Science to other researchers. My thanks to St. Mary’s Guildhall for being an excellent venue.”

• The event was produced in partnership with the Warwick Institute of Engagement and St. Mary’s Guildhall who gave use of their spectacular city centre venue.

Professor Stefano Caria has been awarded a 2022 Philip Leverhulme Prize by the Leverhulme TrustLink opens in a new window in recognition of his outstanding work and future promise.

The Philip Leverhulme Prize scheme recognises and celebrates the achievement of exceptional researchers whose work has already attracted international recognition and whose future careers are exceptionally promising.

Each prize is worth £100,000. The funds may be used for any purpose that advances the prize winner’s research.

Professor Caria studies how labour markets can trap people into poverty, with a focus on low-income countries and on experimental policy-evaluation methods.  

The Leverhulme grant will enable him to embark on a new research agenda which explores how labour market decisions can decrease or foster adaptation to climate change, and evaluates interventions designed to help the poor navigate labour markets under a warming climate. 

Professor Caria said:

“I am honoured and excited to receive the Philip Leverhulme Prize. This will enable me to develop a new set of field experiments exploring how to support poor individuals in climate-vulnerable countries such as Bangladesh to make labour market decisions that increase their resilience to climate change."

Professor Thiemo Fetzer is also one of this year’s winnersLink opens in a new window.

Head of Department Professor Ben Lockwood said:

“The Department is absolutely delighted by the decision of the Trust to award Philip Leverhulme Prizes to Thiemo and Stefano.

“These awards highlight the international impact that Stefano and Thiemo are already having with their work; and will enable them to continue to achieve at the very highest levels of the discipline.”

The scheme was created to commemorate the contribution to the work of the Trust made by Philip, Third Viscount Leverhulme and grandson of William Lever, the founder of the Trust.

Since its foundation in 1925, the Leverhulme Trust has provided grants and scholarships for research and education, funding research projects, fellowships, studentships, bursaries and prizes; it operates across all the academic disciplines, the intention being to support talented individuals as they realise their personal vision in research and professional training. Today, it is one of the largest all-subject providers of research funding in the UK, distributing approximately £100 million a year.

For more information about the Trust, please visit www.leverhulme.ac.ukLink opens in a new window and follow the Trust on Twitter @LeverhulmeTrust

People's assessment of their own feelings on a numerical scale has no objective basis but is a better predictor of major life changes such as moving house, leaving a life partner or changing jobs than is a whole basket of social and economic indicators, according to a new study by Warwick economist Professor Andrew Oswald and Dr. Caspar Kaiser of the Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford. Their work was published on the same day as a giant Office of National Statistics conference on the use of wellbeing data in UK policy making.

In The Scientific Value of Numerical Measures of Human FeelingsLink opens in a new window, published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Oswald and Kaiser explore the connection between human feelings and actions, analysing survey data on the feelings and decisions of approximately 700,000 citizens followed over four decades in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia.

Oswald explains: "Large amounts of information are collected by governments, health bodies and employers from people on their feelings using a 0 - 10 or a 0 - 100 scale. But there are no objective units of measurement for happiness or job satisfaction. Are these surveys pointless? No - our analysis shows that 'feelings numbers' are remarkably valuable.

"While we cannot check a person's inner feelings in a direct way, we can look at people's subsequent actions and ask what they reveal about a person's state of mind.

"Our study searched for - and found - evidence of a reliable relationship between 'feelings integers' - the number people chose to describe their feelings - and what we called 'get-me-out-of-here actions' - major life changes such as moving house, changing jobs or leaving a life partner."

Oswald and Kaiser's analysis found that the 'single made-up feelings integer' had better predictive power than a combined group of standard economic and social variables, including household income, employment status, number of children, education, and homeownership status.

The analysis also found an inverse relationship between these feelings numbers and subsequent get-me-out-of-here actions in the domains of neighbourhoods, intimate partners, jobs, and hospital visits in the three countries from which data was drawn. The relationship between feelings and actions appears replicable and is close to linear.

Oswald and Kaiser hope that their findings will bridge a gap between economics and psychology in the weight and credibility attached to feelings data.

Oswald concludes: "Our analysis has demonstrated that the numbers humans provide in response to feelings survey questions do have strong predictive power over future actions. Somehow humans are choosing these answers in a systematic way as though they can sense within themselves a reliable, objective numerical scale. How they achieve this is not currently known and deserves further exploration."

3 October 2022

• The scientific value of numerical measures of human feelingsLink opens in a new window. Caspar Kaiser and Andrew J Oswald. PNAS 2022 Vol 119.