As part of an MRC funded project “Mathematical modelling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic at the local, regional and national scale”, our team at Zeeman Institute:SBIDER (Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) is using real time data on the UK COVID-19 outbreak to provide robust predictions, gauging the ability of a model to predict future epidemic behaviour. We are investigating how our short- and long-term predictions change during an outbreak as more information becomes available, how this may effect forecasts of the appropriate control measures that could be introduced and when and how such policies should be relaxed. Finally, taking into account the potential for future waves of infection, we may use our models to examine adaptive control policies that can be implemented to reduce the number of deaths as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and to minimise the impact on the health service.

The team includes Matt Keeling, Michael Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Ben Atkins and several colleagues in SBIDER.

Relevant Publications

Preprints

• Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: when can the UK relax about COVID-19? 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J. Keeling. (2021)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896
• A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.11.18.20230649
• Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting 
  Edward M. Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.10.15.20208454
• Precautionary breaks: planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of COVID-19 
  Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M. Hill, Graham F Medley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.10.13.201211813
• Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. 
  Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.09.22.20194183
• Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Malcolm G Semple, ISARIC4C Investigators, Michael J. Tildesley, Edward M. Hill. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20163782
• The impact of school reopening on the spread of COIVD-19 in England.  
  Matt J. Keeling, Michael J. Tildesley, Benjamin D Atkins, Bridget Penman, Emma Southall, GlenGuyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Hector McKimm, Erin Gorsich, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434.
• Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. 
  Matt J. Keeling, Edward M. Hill, Erin Gorsich, Bridget Penman, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, AlexHolmes, Trystan Leng, Hector McKimm, Massimiliano Tamborrino, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley. (2020)
  medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.05.10.20083683.

Email:

Edward dot Hill at warwick dot ac dot uk

Office:

Room 5.14
Mathematical Sciences Building
University of Warwick
Coventry
CV4 7AL

Web:

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