MIR@W Day - Vector-borne disease modelling/ecology
Vector-borne diseases pose a growing challenge to human and animal health, with their transmission shaped by complex interactions between vector ecology, host behaviour and immunological background, and environmental change and climate. This one-day interdisciplinary meeting will bring together researchers, public health professionals and practitioners working in vector ecology, epidemiology, mathematical modelling and related disciplines to share perspectives, discuss emerging challenges and foster new collaborative relationships. The meeting is intended to encourage discussion and facilitate interdisciplinary collaborations.
The programme comprises two themed sessions. The first will focus on environmental suitability for vector-borne disease, while the second will explore different approaches to estimating vector-borne disease transmission potential. Each session will conclude with a panel discussion, providing opportunities for questions and broader interdisciplinary discussion.
The meeting is free to attend, with lunch and refreshments provided.
Organisers: Kristyna Rysava, Mike Tildesley, and Alex Kaye
Date: Wednesday 4th November 2026
Location: B1.01 Zeeman building
Registration form: Mathematics Research CentreLink opens in a new window
Who should attend?: The meeting is open to researchers (including students), practitioners and policymakers with an interest in vector-borne diseases, including those working in mathematical modelling, epidemiology, ecology, entomology, public health and climate science.
Programme
| 10:30 - 11:00 | Arrival with refreshments (located in SBIDER) |
| 11:00 - 11:30 |
Session 1 flash talks Speaker: Tom Walker Talk title: TBC Wolbachia bacterial endosymbionts for the control of insect-borne diseases Speaker: Merline Feero Talk title: Mosquito population mixing shapes Rift Valley Fever transmission across a wildlife-livestock interface Speaker: Rob Sunnucks Talk title: How tsetse catch data can help decision-making for vector control of gambiense sleeping sickness Speaker: Alex Kaye Talk title: Mapping disease under diagnostic uncertainty: prevalence of animal African trypanosomiasis in continental Africa Speaker: Kristyna Rysava Talk title: Dengue dynamics in new and changing environments |
| 11:30 - 12:00 |
Speaker: Steven White Talk title: Towards an operational model for predicting dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe |
| 12:00 - 12:30 |
Speaker: Dominic Brass Talk title: Making a model tick |
| 12:30 - 13:00 |
Panel discussion |
| 13:00 - 14:00 | Lunch |
| 14:00 - 14:30 |
Speaker: Francis Windram Talk title: A temperature-dependent R0 model for leishmaniasis |
| 14:30 - 15:00 |
Speaker: Clare McCormack Talk title: Refining Estimates of the Global Burden of Dengue |
| 15:00 - 15:30 |
Speaker: Marta Shocket Talk title: Climate as a driver of mosquito-borne disease transmission |
| 15:30 - 16:00 | Panel discussion |
| 16:00 - 17:00 | Coffee and networking |
Talk titles and abstracts
Speaker: Steven White
Talk title: Towards an operational model for predicting dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe
Abstract: Europe is experiencing a seismic shift in public health risks due to dengue and chikungunya virus outbreaks. Once considered tropical diseases, the spread of the tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has led to novel European arbovirus outbreaks that are increasing in frequency and magnitude. Here, we present a mathematical modelling framework, a system of environmentally sensitive delay differential equations, which is extensively validated against mosquito and case data showing high degrees of accuracy. We demonstrate the utility of the model for public health stakeholders in real-time outbreak scenarios.
Speaker: Dominic Brass
Talk title: Making a model tick
Abstract: The incidence of tick-borne disease is rapidly rising across Europe in response to multiple interacting anthropogenic drivers, such as climate and land use change. To predict how the population dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, the primary vector of tick-borne diseases in Europe, will respond to further changes to these drivers we have developed a system of environmentally driven stage-structured delay-differential equations. This framework is then extended to represent the transmission of a range of tick-borne pathogens and validated at multiple spatial scales and used to predict past, present, and future disease dynamics.
Speaker: Francis Windram
Talk title: A temperature-dependent R0 model for leishmaniasis
Abstract: Leishmaniasis is a globally-important disease vectored by sandfly species. As with other vector-borne diseases, changes in the climate are expected to lead to shifts in the intensity and the geographical limits of leishmaniasis transmission. Temperature-dependent trait-based R0 models have proven important for modelling and understanding mosquito-borne diseases; however, these models do not presently exist for leishmaniasis. In this talk I provide an introduction to leishmaniasis and sandflies and present a modified temperature-dependent R0 equation for leishmaniasis transmission. I then discuss the traits required to parameterise this equation and the challenges posed by a data-poor environment. Finally I present some early results from this work and outline the next steps for improving these models.
Speaker: Clare McCormack
Talk title: Refining Estimates of the Global Burden of Dengue
Abstract: Dengue continues to pose a significant public health challenge globally, and up-to-date estimates of fine-scale geographical variation in dengue transmission intensity and disease burden are crucial for understanding where control interventions, such as vaccination, can be introduced. In this presentation, I will discuss ongoing work using environmentally driven geospatial models, fitted to geolocated force of infection (FOI) estimates derived from case notification data and cross-sectional serological surveys published from 2000 onwards, to generate the most up-to-date high-resolution global map of dengue transmission intensity.
Speaker: Marta Shocket
Talk title: Climate as a driver of mosquito-borne disease transmission
Abstract: Temperature and rainfall shape the geographic distribution, seasonality, and magnitude of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. This talk provides a broad overview of past and ongoing work on climate as a driver of mosquito-borne disease covering four research areas: 1) a comparative approach estimating thermal responses of transmission across 15 mosquito-pathogen systems, and a proposed framework for extending the reaction norm approach to rainfall; 2) the impact of daily temperature fluctuations; 3) the potential for mosquito vectors to thermally adapt to climate change, and 4) an attempt to synthesise observational modelling of field data with more mechanistic, thermal biology-based approaches.
Join (in person): Please register at the link at the top of the page.
Aims of the meeting: This meeting aims to bring together people with an interest in vector-borne disease; the ideal outcome of this meeting would be to facilitate new collaborations across disciplines.