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Mike Heyns (Imperial): Mike Heyns (Imperial)

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Location: P5.23

Abstract: To provide resilience globally in the face of extreme space weather scenarios, there has been a concerted effort to develop operational space weather forecasting capabilities that produce actionable situational awareness for end-users. The challenges involved in driving operational tools are often in contrast to the typical challenges faced by approaches used in fundamental space weather research, such as the use of global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system to probe the near-Earth space environment. This talk will introduce space weather generally and then focus on the current developments and deployments of operational space weather forecasting tools developed as part of the Gorgon simulation group. This includes the deployment of the operational GorgonOps suite as part of the UK SWIMMR (Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) programme, which has tailored outputs for ground-based end-users affected by geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Various model optimisations are needed to perform these global magnetospheric simulations in real-time, with additional post-processing required to convert outputs into ground geomagnetic field estimates, associated geoelectric field estimates, and GIC predictions. Specifics relating to the model environment include grid and resolution optimization, inner boundary conditions and conductivity prescriptions, implications of using real-time solar wind data and different approaches to calculate the ground geomagnetic field. Space weather forecasting products such as geomagnetic indices, joule heating and magnetopause stand-off distance estimates are presented with operational and contextual visualisations. Finally, updates on other current and future deployments and developments are discussed.

Tags: CFSA Seminar

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