Dr Taofeeq Ibn-Mohammed, Assistant Professor and Head of Sustainability Research at WMG

As the world embarks on energy transitions at scale to tackle the energy crisis, improved quality control and standards consistent with the current global energy dynamics and landscape are needed. Dr Taofeeq Ibn-Mohammed, Assistant Professor and Head of Sustainability Research at WMG, The University of Warwick, UK, examines the role quality professionals can play.

Energy constitutes the backbone of modern society and the global economy. From powering our industrial systems, filling our cars with fuel, to heating our homes, everything we do revolves around a secure, reliable, and efficient flow of affordable energy. As the global economy recovers from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is experiencing an energy crisis caused by a sudden increase in energy (oil and gas) demand, that is pushing up the cost of these vital fuels for final consumers worldwide.

Last year, gas and coal prices in Europe rose by more than 200% and 100%, respectively. Similar trends are happening in the US where gasoline prices have increased by more than 50% in the past year, and in Asia, where energy companies are purchasing liquefied natural gas at high prices to lock in supply. Among other things, the crisis is further exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, alongside the restriction of its gas supply to the European market.

Because of these factors, as with other countries, there has been an inevitable increase in the cost of living in the UK, given its reliance on gas for electricity generation and heating of homes. This has had a disproportionate impact on households with lower incomes, according to the Office for National Statistics. It has also been reported that the energy crisis could force more UK factories to close because of increased energy costs.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, energy demand has consistently outstripped energy supply, causing an increase in energy prices that is down to several other reasons including: extreme and unpredictable weather, such as a cold winter in Europe, rendering stored gas levels much lower than normal; hot weather in Asia, necessitating increased gas usage for air-conditioning; reduced gas exports from Russia to north-western Europe; deliberate planning and poor governmental policy recommendations regarding energy storage, reserves and transmission mechanisms; decision-dodging and short-term thinking; and transitioning from fossil fuel production to greener alternatives by most countries worldwide.

Potential solutions to the crisis

Tackling the energy crisis via fossil fuel replacement is a thorny problem. Why? Fossil fuel works great. It is relatively cheap, and it satisfies needs. However, it is unsustainable, causes problems, and it is very hard to change.

Nevertheless, the development and deployment of low-carbon renewable energy technologies (RETs) are touted to be a viable solution to the global energy crisis. This is because of their potential to stabilise the climate impact of fossil fuel production and consumption; facilitate electricity availability to the 1.6bn people with constrained access; and ensure stable and secure access to energy for all nations.

Sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) have the potential to support industry and help to alleviate the energy crisis, as stated in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 7, and move us closer to ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy globally. Costing studies by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) revealed that RETs in locations with tremendous physical resources are now in the range or lower than electricity generation by fossil fuels. Also, their deployment and implementation are becoming easier. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that, in 2021, the annual global energy investment would increase to US$1.9tn, recovering by approximately 10% from 2020, bringing the total investment volume back towards pre-crisis levels. Specifically, global investment in RETs such as solar and wind increased by 6.5% in 2021 because of rising climate ambition and policy action from countries across the globe. In fact, RETs constitute one of the largest investment sectors, attracting US$366bn for new projects and small-scale systems, corresponding to the 6.5% rise in 2021.

Capacity additions required and technical challenges to overcome

Currently, RETs integration and penetration is not sufficient to replace fossil fuels. Our World In Data revealed that, in 2019, 80% of global energy consumption was supplied from oil, coal and natural gas, compared with wind at 2% and solar at just 1%, for example. To replace fossil fuels with RETs fully, production and deployment rates of wind and solar technologies would have to be increased by roughly 25 times the current rates. For perspective, the IEA recommended the rapid scale up of solar and wind, attaining annual additions of 630 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV and 390GW of wind by 2030, four times the record levels set in 2020, to meet the net zero target. In the case of solar PV, this is tantamount to installing the world’s current largest solar park on a roughly daily basis.

Moreover, specific RETs such as solar and wind technologies are characterised by intermittency problems (down to non-controllable variability and partial unpredictability), and these rely on physical resources that are location dependent, all of which constitute distinct challenges that must be addressed towards electrical grid integrations with RETs. For instance, non-controllable variability occurs because sunlight and wind speeds vary from moment to moment with less control by generation operators, thus affecting the power output. Solar PV systems require sunlight to generate electricity; and a wind turbine requires blowing wind to produce electricity, both of which are partially unpredictable.

Also, the best solar and wind resources are location dependent, and compared to fossil fuels like coal, oil or gas, cannot be transported to a grid-optimal generation site. This is because of the co-location requirement of power generation with the natural resource itself. Very often, these locations are distant from where the power would eventually be used, necessitating the need for new transmission capacity for integration with the electrical grid. Battery energy storage is currently helping to address issues around intermittency. But to tackle these issues further and support the number of different RETs some grids would contain over the next decades, continuous research and development efforts are needed.

Need for transitional global strategy

Even if the above challenges are overcome, fossil fuel replacement would not happen in the next few years. The net zero journey is a gradual transition and not an instantaneous extinction of fossil fuel, because reducing emissions while maintaining reliable energy flow is not an easy task, as modern societies cannot operate without stable access to energy. This is particularly the case in Germany where supply of renewables is robust, but where 56% of its electricity was still generated from fossil fuel in the first six months of 2021.

Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuel then becomes a function of the pace with which RETs are deployed. To achieve this, what is particularly needed for a sustainable energy mix is a transitional global strategy that is sensitive and responsive to different shocks, based on short-, medium-, and long-term planning. Otherwise, whenever there is an imbalance between energy demand and supply, the world plunges into an energy crisis and governments must step in to keep energy flowing at all costs, presenting a potential backlash to the net zero transitioning agenda. For example, faced with increased gas prices, the US government encouraged OPEC to increase production while advising its own energy producers to decrease production. Current global investment in the energy transition surged 27% year on year in 2021 to a record US$755bn. To get on track for the net zero journey in the years ahead, total energy transition expenditure would be required to triple.

Link between energy crisis and quality control

To support the integration of more large-capacity renewable energy generation as part of the overall transitional strategy to combat the energy crisis, quality control at pace must constitute part of the entire process across the lifecycle of any renewable energy development.

In the past, a lack of quality control led to the collapse of the RETs market, leading to trust issues. Indeed, the anticipated proliferation of RETs for energy transitioning poses quality control and standardisation issues. This is evident, based on IRENA’s report that, despite the wave of interest in RETs in the US in the early 1970s, by the 1980s, the RETs market – notably solar heating – crumpled in part because of low-quality equipment, prompting reliability and credibility issues.

Rapid ageing of components and power generation degradation, and consequently increased probability of fire accidents characterise the PV manufacturing value chain. An article previously published by the Solar Cells journal, reported that there is a 2% probability of fire occurrence in PV arrays every year, with 0.6% happening in residential areas and 3.5% from rooftop PV modules. Cases of PV-related accidents have been experienced in the US, Germany, the Netherlands, and other parts of the world. All have been attributed to poor-quality and ageing PV modules, installation errors, and components not meeting the quality control and standards specification requirements.

Quality-related challenges to RETs deployment also pertains to the perceived technical risks attributed to them, especially in countries with less experience of adoption, thus potentially deterring investors if there are doubts regarding their reliability. It is therefore pertinent that policy instruments such as international technical standards for mitigating these technical risks are put in place to ensure the quality of renewable energy projects are in line with the current energy dynamics and landscape. As RETs become increasingly competitive and globally traded, more efforts are needed to protect the markets from poor-quality products and services, mitigate technical risks and establish market trust. Without quality control and assurance, the deployment growth of RETs needed for energy transition may be hindered.

Current quality control and operationalisation of standards

The quality control standards and regulations needed to ensure the safety and quality of RETs deployment are available. In fact, the benefits of incorporating quality control and standards have been extensively demonstrated around the world, but more is required in terms of their operationalisation. For example, IRENA has previously launched a series of reports on quality infrastructure for RETs, detailing procedural steps for the development of quality infrastructure for solar water heaters and small wind turbines, alongside guidelines for policy decision-makers. The report finds that products lacking in minimum quality requirements are hindering the growth and expansion of small wind turbine markets, for example.

If the global installation capacity must increase through large-scale integration of RETs, there is a need to put quality infrastructure in place, based on operationally excellent international technical standards. As well as establishing market trust through scrutinising poor-quality products/services, quality control and standardisation can facilitate RET improvements. For instance, it has been reported that in the state of Florida in the United States, a mandatory testing standard for solar hot-water collectors yielded a 36% efficiency improvement across a five-year period, confirming the overall great benefit from integrating quality control measures.

Enabling large-scale integration of RETs

To enable the integration of more large-capacity renewable energy generation towards a sustainable energy mix, while maintaining power system quality, stability, and reliability, there is a need to make improvements not only to the technologies themselves, but also to the operational practices, and quality control mechanisms.

A White Paper on large-capacity renewable energy sources noted that attempts towards operationalisation of standards are ongoing, with a huge focus on device-level standards. For instance, numerous device-level standards have already been developed, including the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400 series for wind turbines established by IEC TC 88, and the IEC 60904 series for solar PV devices developed by IEC TC 82. However, for grid integration, system-level integration standards that prescribe the performance of renewable energy power plants and their interaction with the power system – covering the requirements for the interconnection, design, modelling, testing, monitoring, control, and operation of renewable energy power plants – are more relevant. This presents a vital role for quality professionals within the RETs market.

Requirements for the future

Operational standards must be continually updated and developed to reflect advances in RETs, rendering them more grid compatible, with similar or even greater performance than those for conventional generators. Performance requirements of interconnection standards should be placed at the plant level or at the point of interconnection, without interference with renewable energy power plant requirements. The treatment of renewable energy power plants must be in a similar manner to conventional power plants to maintain equity and simplicity, while considering the unique features of renewable energy generation.

Interconnection standards should also consider both projected and existing conditions, aggregate impacts, and the effects of replacing conventional generation with renewable energy generation. Alongside the interconnection standards, best-practice documents are also required for the entire planning, design, commissioning, and operation process for renewable energy integration, encompassing modelling, testing, communications, monitoring, control, generation forecast, scheduling and dispatch. This can facilitate modular design guidance for RETs, for example.

In addition to continuing the development of device-level standards, the IEC should develop system-level, performance-orientated renewable energy integration standards, based on relevant protocols at national, regional or grid company levels. Different countries face different large-scale renewable energy integration challenges; however, numerous common issues and interests can be addressed by establishing platforms and programmes for worldwide research, discussion, and cross-fertilisation of ideas. This can facilitate the development of a common language and terminologies for renewable energy integration, thus enabling effective communication between different stakeholders across the RETs’ value chain.

A collaborative effort

Indeed, RETs have the potential to provide a solution to climate change and energy security, which means they will be providing more and more of our electricity in the future. But while they present an opportunity, their safe integration with the existing electrical grid must be ensured to avoid a backlash. This signals the need for a unified framework for connecting and controlling RETs, alongside the requisite regulations to enable integration. Policy-makers, utility companies, industry, researchers, and regulatory bodies, including the IEC and energy agencies such as IRENA, must work together as part of the combined efforts towards improved quality control and standards for RETs.

Overall, quality control measures must underpin policies and regulations for RETs. Safe large-scale RET integration entails multifaceted actions at different timescales and at many levels and points in the generation lifecycle. These all require effective stakeholder engagements across the entire value chain of RETs, including private and public sectors. This can be facilitated by governments across the world by taking responsibility for bringing together all the relevant stakeholders in a unified effort to establish the rules, develop the relevant standards and make informed decisions towards the net zero agenda.

Article originally featured in in the Autumn issue of Quality World magazine: https://www.quality.org/

For more information about this research area visit: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/wmg/research/transformation/supply_chain/