May’s local elections saw a surge in support for the right-wing populist party Reform. What might be driving this swing away from mainstream parties? Do the results reflect what voters are seeing in their local environment? Professor Thiemo Fetzer explores the findings of a recent studyLink opens in a new window with Jacob Edenhofer and Prashant Garg, published in Economics Letters.

"In towns across England and Wales, empty storefronts stand as silent witnesses to economic transformation. These vacant premises represent more than just business failures. They are visible wounds in the social fabric of communities, and as our research demonstrates, powerful drivers of political change.

Our study reveals a significant positive association between high street vacancy rates and support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. This finding adds crucial empirical evidence to the growing literature on the relationship between local economic conditions and populist voting behaviour.

Beyond Economic Metrics

While economists often focus on traditional measures like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or wage stagnation, our research suggests that the visible manifestations of decline may matter more for political behaviour than abstract economic indicators. High street vacancies serve as daily visual reminders of community deterioration that affect all residents, not just those directly impacted by job losses.

"The perception of local decline versus actual economic metrics is what matters," I noted in recent discussions of this work. "Economic welfare has improved overall, but structural transformation creates winners and losers." This distinction is crucial. A community might show positive economic growth on paper while experiencing the hollowing out of its social spaces. The empty café where pensioners once gathered, the shuttered shop where neighbours exchanged local news—these losses represent more than economic transactions. They represent the erosion of community bonds.

The Social Consumption Crisis

High streets traditionally served dual functions: economic exchange and social consumption. The latter function - providing spaces for community interaction -has been largely overlooked in economic analyses of retail decline. Our research highlights how the disappearance of these social consumption spaces contributes to isolation and loneliness, particularly among older residents who are less integrated into digital social networks. This isolation creates fertile ground for populist messaging that promises to restore a lost sense of community and belonging and creates constituencies receptive to narratives of restoration and blame.

The Geography of Resentment

The spatial distribution of high street vacancies reveals important patterns. Areas experiencing the most visible decline aren't necessarily the poorest regions, but often those undergoing rapid structural transformation as consumption patterns shift online.

Particularly concerning is the persistence of these vacancies. Our data shows that many premises remain empty three years after retail chain collapses, creating lasting changes in community perceptions and political attitudes.

Narrative Exploitation

Populist parties have proven adept at channelling grievances about visible decline into political narratives that blame outsider groups. Ironically, our research shows that immigrants rarely settle in declining areas, yet anti-immigration sentiment often flourishes there.

"Populist politicians exploit local grievances," I noted in a recent interview. "The decline of local journalism creates an information vacuum filled by social media and populist messaging." This narrative exploitation is particularly effective because the causes of high street decline - including technological change, shifting consumption patterns, and global supply chains - are complex and impersonal. Populist narratives offer simpler explanations and identifiable culprits.

Policy Implications

Our findings suggest several potential policy interventions:

• First, ownership structure matters. Areas with less-fragmented commercial real estate ownership appear better equipped to weather structural economic changes. Policy makers should consider incentives for coordinated ownership or management of high street properties.
• Second, digital infrastructure investment could extend the reach of agglomeration economies to declining areas. Remote work opportunities might allow residents to participate in dynamic urban economies while maintaining local community ties, a point I've emphasized in discussions about the potential benefits of population migration to the countryside.
• Third, communities need alternative social consumption spaces. As commercial venues decline, public investment in community centers, libraries, and parks becomes increasingly important.
• Finally, revitalizing local journalism could help counter populist narratives about decline by providing accurate information about local conditions and fostering community dialogue.

Conclusion

The relationship between high street vacancies and populist voting behaviour reveals how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences. Empty storefronts represent more than economic statistics—they are visual signifiers of community transformation that affect residents' sense of place and belonging.

By understanding these connections, we can develop more effective responses to the challenges of structural economic change and the political reactions they provoke. The future of our democratic politics may depend on how we address not just the economic realities of decline, but its visible manifestations in the spaces where community life unfolds."

• Thiemo Fetzer, Jacob Edenhofer, Prashant Garg (2025) Local decline and populism, Economics Letters, Volume 252, 2025, ISSN 0165-1765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112360.