Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucuses as expected. The winner in Iowa doesn’t always go on to win their party’s nomination - there have been significant comebacks before - but this first win confirms Trump as the front runner going into the remaining Republican primary contests over the coming weeks and months. Trump will double down on his Republican opponents Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley to encourage them to drop out of the race.

He wants to become the presumptive Republican candidate as soon as possible, not least because he faces a series of potentially damaging court cases over the course of the election year. The 91 criminal charges against Trump across four cases appear not to be dissuading his core Republican voters from supporting him at this stage. But if he is found guilty of criminal charges that might seriously impact the willingness of voters in the wider electorate to cast their ballots for him in the presidential election itself.

As front runner, Trump will increasingly define the Republican opposition to Biden’s presidency but also give the current president a clear focal point in his campaign for re-election. Tuesday, November 5th is a long way off but the US presidential election process is very much under way! All eyes on the New Hampshire primary next week but also the US Supreme Court which will soon decide whether states can bar Trump from their election ballots due to his role in the January 6, 2021 attempted insurrection on Capitol Hill.