Dr Dennis Novy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick provides expert insights on the economic issues surrounding the EU referendum.
- Economy: For the economy, Brexit would be an act of economic self-harm.
- Immigration: The government has cut public services over recent years. Many people have -- erroneously -- linked the worsening of public services to immigration. The referendum debate has failed to convey the fact that immigration improves public finances.
- Politics: The campaign has pushed the rise of belief-based politics in Britain. As Michael Gove put it, "People in this country have had enough of experts."
- The economic evidence on Brexit has been as clear as possible: Brexit will be bad for the economy. It will lead to an immediate slowdown of the economy, and also to slower growth in the long run. But we don't know how bad exactly. This will depend on the arrangement a newly 'independent' Britain would have with the EU (in particular whether Britain will join the Single Market or not).
- Some very few economic studies ("Economists for Brexit") have claimed that Brexit will boost the economy. These studies are not scientific and have been thoroughly debunked.
- A post-Brexit Britain would struggle to negotiate favourable trade deals with countries like China and the U.S. because Britain's bargaining power would be diminished.
- Overall, from an economic perspective, the Leave campaign has been largely a trip to fantasy land.
- The Remain campaign has struggled to explain to the public why precisely Brexit would be bad for the economy. Instead, the campaign has focused on headline slogans.
Articles on Brexit by Dennis Novy:
- Social Market Foundation:
"Three reasons why we may be underestimating the impact of Brexit on Trade"
- London School of Economics:
"Britain needs Europe a lot more than Europe needs Britain"
Tel: 02476 150423
Mob: 07876 218166