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Dr Angela Noufaily

Job Title
Associate Professor (Research Focussed)
WMS - Warwick Clinical Trials Unit
Research Interests

I have methodological and applied expertise in the fields of randomized controlled trials, machine learning, survival analysis and outbreak detection. I am currently a co-applicant and lead statistician on 3 funded projects: CESCAIL, evaluates capsule endoscopy using AI analysis and aims to support and speed cancer assessments; ReSPECT, evaluates the integration of the Recommended Summary Plan for Emergency Care and Treatment; IONIC, a randomized controlled trial, evaluating the efficacy and safety of an antiviral drug for COVID-19. I have been the lead statistician on numerous clinical trials including the Physiotherapy Rehabilitation for Osteoporotic Vertebral Fracture (PROVE) trial led by the University of Oxford and IONIC for which the interim results suggest so far that the intervention could speed the recovery of COVID-19 hospitalised patients by 25%. I am a world expert in the statistical detection of outbreaks. Since 2011, I have a long-standing collaboration with Public Health England (PHE) ? currently UK Health Security Agency ? through which I developed with colleagues significant improvements to PHE's algorithm for infectious disease surveillance. The algorithm is used weekly since 2013 for monitoring infectious disease outbreaks at PHE as well as at the German Robert Koch Institute, Danish Statens Serum Institut, Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment and Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease. It was also used at the Centre for Disease Control in the USA to analyse excess deaths associated with COVID-19. It is also implemented in the statistical software R. Through my collaboration with Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers (CNAM) in Paris, I expanded the use of my detection algorithms and applied them to sick leave data outbreak detection. My statistical research prevailed during the COVID-19 pandemic; I was quick to respond to the urgency of COVID-19 research to help control the virus. I analysed the first 3 months of COVID-19 hospitalised patient data from University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire (UHCW) suggesting that low Albumin and high CRP levels are associated with COVID-19 hospital mortality. I was also the lead statistician on a project on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in Great Britain. I analysed the interim results of an ongoing trial testing an antiviral drug as a potential treatment for COVID-19. Since 2015, I collaborate with the University of Limerick and The Open University on research in survival analysis.


I am Associate Professor in Medical Statistics at Warwick Medical School. I am part of the Statistics and Epidemiology group with main interests in randomized controlled trials and epidemiological science. I also consult on bids for funding via the Research Design Service (RDS). Prior to that, I was a Research Associate at the Open University Mathematics and Statistics Department where I worked on a three-year Medical Research Council project entitled "Statistical outbreak detection methods for large multiple surveillance systems" with Prof Paddy Farrington as Principal Investigator. I have a PhD in Statistics entitled "Parametric quantile regression based on the generalised gamma distribution", a MSc in Pure Mathematics and a BSc in Statistics.

Title Funder Award start Award end
High-quality Mental Capacity Act assessments for Everyone: improving Leadership, assessment Procedures, and patient Support (HELPS) (NIHR HSDR Stage 2) National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) 01 Sep 2023 28 Feb 2026
Research Design Service renewal 2018 National Institute for Health Research (DoH) 01 Oct 2018 30 Sep 2023
Evaluating the ReSPECT process in the community setting. National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) 01 May 2021 30 Apr 2023
NIHR Stage 2: CESCAIL - Capsule Endoscopy delivery at SCale through enhanced AI anaLysis National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) 01 Jul 2021 31 Jan 2023
Prospective, Randomized, Parallel-Group, Open-Label Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IMU-838, in Combination with Oseltemivir, in Adults with Coronavirus Disease 19 ? IONIC study. LifeArc 18 Jun 2020 17 Jun 2021