I have methodological and applied expertise in the fields of randomized controlled trials, machine learning, survival analysis and outbreak detection. I am currently a co-applicant and lead statistician on 3 funded projects: CESCAIL, evaluates capsule endoscopy using AI analysis and aims to support and speed cancer assessments; ReSPECT, evaluates the integration of the Recommended Summary Plan for Emergency Care and Treatment; IONIC, a randomized controlled trial, evaluating the efficacy and safety of an antiviral drug for COVID-19. I have been the lead statistician on numerous clinical trials including the Physiotherapy Rehabilitation for Osteoporotic Vertebral Fracture (PROVE) trial led by the University of Oxford and IONIC for which the interim results suggest so far that the intervention could speed the recovery of COVID-19 hospitalised patients by 25%. I am a world expert in the statistical detection of outbreaks. Since 2011, I have a long-standing collaboration with Public Health England (PHE) ? currently UK Health Security Agency ? through which I developed with colleagues significant improvements to PHE's algorithm for infectious disease surveillance. The algorithm is used weekly since 2013 for monitoring infectious disease outbreaks at PHE as well as at the German Robert Koch Institute, Danish Statens Serum Institut, Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment and Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease. It was also used at the Centre for Disease Control in the USA to analyse excess deaths associated with COVID-19. It is also implemented in the statistical software R. Through my collaboration with Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers (CNAM) in Paris, I expanded the use of my detection algorithms and applied them to sick leave data outbreak detection. My statistical research prevailed during the COVID-19 pandemic; I was quick to respond to the urgency of COVID-19 research to help control the virus. I analysed the first 3 months of COVID-19 hospitalised patient data from University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire (UHCW) suggesting that low Albumin and high CRP levels are associated with COVID-19 hospital mortality. I was also the lead statistician on a project on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in Great Britain. I analysed the interim results of an ongoing trial testing an antiviral drug as a potential treatment for COVID-19. Since 2015, I collaborate with the University of Limerick and The Open University on research in survival analysis.
I am Associate Professor in Medical Statistics at Warwick Medical School. I am part of the Statistics and Epidemiology group with main interests in randomized controlled trials and epidemiological science. I also consult on bids for funding via the Research Design Service (RDS). Prior to that, I was a Research Associate at the Open University Mathematics and Statistics Department where I worked on a three-year Medical Research Council project entitled "Statistical outbreak detection methods for large multiple surveillance systems" with Prof Paddy Farrington as Principal Investigator. I have a PhD in Statistics entitled "Parametric quantile regression based on the generalised gamma distribution", a MSc in Pure Mathematics and a BSc in Statistics.
- Underwood, Martin, Noufaily, Angela, Blanchard, Hazel, Dale, Jeremy, Harlock, Jenny, Gill, Paramjit, Griffiths, Frances, Spencer, Rachel, Slowther, Anne-Marie, 2024. General practitioners? views on emergency care treatment plans; an on-line survey. BJGP Open
- Lei, Ian Io, Tompkins, Katie, White, Elizabeth, Watson, Angus, Parsons, Angus, Parsons, Nicholas R., Noufaily, Angela, Segui, Santi, Wenzek, Hagen, Badreldin, Rawya, Conlin, Abby, Arasaradnam, Ramesh P., 2023. Study of capsule endoscopy delivery at scale through enhanced artificial intelligence-enabled analysis (the CESCAIL study). Colorectal Disease, 25 (7), pp. 1498-1505
- Duchemin, Tom, Noufaily, Angela, Hocine, Mounia N., Lengauer, Thomas, 2023. A statistical algorithm for outbreak detection in multisite settings : an application to sick leave monitoring. Bioinformatics Advances, 3 (1)
- 'Schmidtke, Kelly, 'Kudrna, Laura, 'Noufaily, Angela, 'Stallard, Nigel, 'Skrybant, Magdalena, 'Russell, Samantha, 'Clarke, Aileen, 2022. 'Evaluating the relationship between moral values and vaccine hesitancy in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic : a cross-sectional survey. Social Science & Medicine, 308
- Barker, K. L., Newman, M., Stallard, Nigel, Leal, J., Lowe, C. M., Javaid, M. K., Noufaily, Angela, Hughes, T., Smith, D., Gandhi, V., Cooper, C., Lamb, S. E., 2020. Physiotherapy rehabilitation for osteoporotic vertebral fracture?a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation (PROVE trial). Osteoporosis International, 31, pp. 277-289
- Barker, Karen L., Newman, Meredith, Stallard, Nigel, Leal, Jose, Minns Lowe, Catherine, Javaid, Muhammad K., Noufaily, Angela, Adhikari, Anish, Hughes, Tamsin, Smith, David J., Gandhi, Varsha, Cooper, Cyrus, Lamb, Sallie E., 2019. Exercise or manual physiotherapy compared with a single session of physiotherapy for osteoporotic vertebral fracture : three-arm PROVE RCT. Health Technology Assessment, 23 (44), pp. 1-318
- Noufaily, Angela, Morbey, Roger A., Colón-González, Felipe J., Elliot, Alex J., Smith, Gillian E., Lake, Iain R., McCarthy, Noel D., 2019. Comparison of statistical algorithms for daily syndromic surveillance aberration detection. Bioinformatics, 35 (17), pp. 3110-3118
- Enki, Doyo Gragn, Noufaily, Angela, Farrington, Paddy, Garthwaite, Paul, Andrews, Nick, Charlett, Andre, 2017. Taylor's power law and the statistical modelling of infectious disease surveillance data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 180 (1), pp. 45-72
- Enki, Doyo G., Garthwaite, Paul H., Farrington, C. Paddy, Noufaily, Angela, Andrews, Nick J., Charlett, Andre, 2016. Comparison of statistical algorithms for the detection of infectious disease outbreaks in large multiple surveillance systems. PLoS One, 11 (8)
- Noufaily, Angela, Farrington, Paddy, Garthwaite, Paul, Enki, Doyo Gragn, Andrews, Nick, Charlett, Andre, 2016. Detection of infectious disease outbreaks from laboratory data with reporting delays. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 111 (514), pp. 488-499
- Noufaily, Angela, Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie, Yonas, Enki, Doyo Gragn, Garthwaite, Paul, Andrews, Nick, Charlett, André, Farrington, Paddy, 2015. Modelling reporting delays for outbreak detection in infectious disease data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 178 (1), pp. 205-222
- Jones, M. C., Noufaily, Angela, 2015. Log-location-scale-log-concave distributions for survival and reliability analysis. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 9 (2), pp. 2732-2750
- Enki, Doyo G., Noufaily, Angela, Farrington, C. Paddy, 2014. A time-varying shared frailty model with application to infectious diseases. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 8 (1), pp. 430-447
- Noufaily, Angela, Jones, M. C., 2013. On maximization of the likelihood for the generalized gamma distribution. Computational Statistics, 28 (2), pp. 505-517
- Noufaily, Angela, Enki, Doyo G., Farrington, Paddy, Garthwaite, Paul, Andrews, Nick, Charlett, André, 2013. An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems. Statistics in Medicine, 32 (7), pp. 1206-1222
- Enki, Doyo G., Noufaily, Angela, Garthwaite, Paul H., Andrews, Nick J., Charlett, André, Lane, Chris, Farrington, C. Paddy, 2013. Automated biosurveillance data from England and Wales, 1991?2011. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19 (1), pp. 35-42
- Noufaily, Angela, Jones, M. C., 2013. Parametric quantile regression based on the generalized gamma distribution. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 62 (5), pp. 723-740
- Morbey, R., Noufaily, Angela, Colón-González, F. D., Elliot, A., Harcourt, S., Smith, G., 2018. Comparison of statistical algorithms for syndromic surveillance aberration detection. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, University of Illinois at Chicago Library
Title | Funder | Award start | Award end |
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High-quality Mental Capacity Act assessments for Everyone: improving Leadership, assessment Procedures, and patient Support (HELPS) (NIHR HSDR Stage 2) | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) | 01 Sept 2023 | 28 Feb 2026 |
Research Design Service renewal 2018 | National Institute for Health Research (DoH) | 01 Oct 2018 | 30 Sept 2023 |
Evaluating the ReSPECT process in the community setting. | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) | 01 May 2021 | 30 Apr 2023 |
NIHR Stage 2: CESCAIL - Capsule Endoscopy delivery at SCale through enhanced AI anaLysis | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR DoH) | 01 Jul 2021 | 31 Jan 2023 |
Prospective, Randomized, Parallel-Group, Open-Label Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IMU-838, in Combination with Oseltemivir, in Adults with Coronavirus Disease 19 ? IONIC study. | LifeArc | 18 Jun 2020 | 17 Jun 2021 |