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Warwick Physics Colloquium: Paul Williams (Reading): Forecasting atmospheric turbulence from hours to decades ahead

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Location: PLT

It is well known that the atmosphere exhibits turbulence with a -5/3 energy spectrum on small scales (on the order of 100 km and smaller). It is also well known (especially to airline passengers) that transient localised enhancements to this background turbulence are hazardous to aircraft. Understanding this aviation-affecting subset of turbulence is an important and challenging application of geophysical fluid dynamics. This talk will describe a new theory and mechanism for the generation of aviation turbulence. It will also test the skill of the mechanism by comparing observations of turbulence with predictions made from the theory. These tests are successful, to the extent that the algorithm is now being used operationally to predict turbulence for the aviation sector every day. Finally, I will explain why climate change is strengthening aviation turbulence, potentially leading to bumpier flights in future.

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