Professor of Economics

Dennis Novy is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick, Impact Director of CAGE, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He is also an Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics. Dennis has been a member of the Economic Advisory Council of the British Chambers of Commerce since 2023. He was appointed to the UK Council of Economic Advisers by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2018/19. He was the Specialist Adviser to the House of Lords on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) in 2013/14. He received a PhD from the University of Cambridge. Link to CV 

Associate Editor, European Economic Review

Research Interests

My research on Google Scholar

• International Trade
• International Economics
• Macroeconomics
• Economic History

Working Papers

"Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States" Conditionally accepted American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #17031 (with Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Thomas Sampson). See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Urban-Biased Structural Change" Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #18522 (with Natalie Chen, Carlo Perroni and Horng Chern Wong). See the policy column at VoxEU.

Recent committee appearances and TV Interviews

• House of Commons/House of Lords, January 2024 (summary)
• London Assembly, January 2024 (summary)
• CCTV (China), November 2017
• Deutsche Welle, February 2016
• BBC World News with Lucy Hockings, August 2015
• Sky News with Kay Burley, February 2015
• Sky News with Sarah-Jane Mee, January 2015

Publications

"Trade, Gravity, and Aggregation" Review of Economics and Statistics 106(5), September 2024, pp. 1418-1426. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #16552 (with Holger Breinlich and J.M.C. Santos Silva). The online appendix is available here.

"Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities" Economic Journal 132(644), May 2022, pp. 1349-1377. Previous version "Currency Unions, Trade, and Heterogeneity" Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #16318 (with Natalie Chen). The online appendix is available here. See the policy column at VoxEU.

"The Brexit Vote, Inflation and UK Living Standards" International Economic Review 63(1), February 2022, pp. 63-93. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #14176 and as part of the LSE/CEP Brexit Analysis (with Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Thomas Sampson). See the policy columns at VoxEU and Ökonomenstimme (in German).

"Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" Journal of the European Economic Association 20(1), February 2022, pp. 312-351. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #13085 (with Natalie Chen and Wanyu Chung). The online appendix is available here.

"Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation" International Economic Review 62(4), November 2021, pp. 1453-1487. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #11226 and as Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2016/006 (with Cletus Coughlin). See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Trade and Uncertainty" Review of Economics and Statistics 102(4), October 2020, pp. 749-765. Also available as NBER Working Paper #19941 and CEPR Discussion Paper #9888 (with Alan M. Taylor). See the policy column at VoxEU. The online appendix is available here.

"Voting with their Money: Brexit and Outward Investment by UK Firms" European Economic Review 124 (103400), May 2020, pp. 1-20. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #13850 (with Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Thomas Sampson). See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period" Asian Economic Policy Review 15(1), January 2020, pp. 119-136. Also available as NBER Working Paper #25830 and CEPR Discussion Paper #13716 (with David Jacks). Coverage in the Washington Post, VoxEU and NPR radio interview.

"Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined" European Journal of Political Economy 56, January 2019, pp. 132-150. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #13110 (with Eleonora Alabrese, Sascha Becker and Thiemo Fetzer).

"The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market" Fiscal Studies 39(4), December 2018, pp. 581-623. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #13147 (with Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Thomas Sampson and Ahmed Usman). See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century" Journal of International Economics 114, September 2018, pp. 221-237. Also available as NBER Working Paper #22736 and CEPR Discussion Paper #11570 (with David Jacks). The data set is available here.

"Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis" Economic Policy 32(92), October 2017, pp. 601-650. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #11954 (with Sascha Becker and Thiemo Fetzer). See the policy column at VoxEU. The data set is available for download here.

"Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect? Evidence from U.S. Trade" CESifo Economic Studies 59(2), June 2013, pp. 249-276. Also available as Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2009/057 (with Cletus Coughlin).

"International Trade without CES: Estimating Translog Gravity" Journal of International Economics 89(2), March 2013, pp. 271-282 (lead article). Online appendix available here. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #9125. See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data" Economic Inquiry 51(1), January 2013, pp. 101-121. 2013 Best Article Award for publication in Economic Inquiry. The data set is available for download here. Also see the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) update of Novy comprehensive trade cost measure.

"On the Measurement of Trade Costs: Direct vs. Indirect Approaches to Quantifying Standards and Technical Regulations" World Trade Review 11(3), July 2012, pp. 401-414. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #8883 (with Natalie Chen).

"Gravity, Trade Integration, and Heterogeneity across Industries" Journal of International Economics 85(2), November 2011, pp. 206-221. Online appendix available here. Previous version entitled "International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach" available as CEPR Discussion Paper #7103 (with Natalie Chen). See the policy column at VoxEU.

"Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs" Journal of International Economics 83(2), March 2011, pp. 185-201. Also available as NBER Working Paper #15267 (with David Jacks and Christopher Meissner). The data set is available here. Also see the policy column at VoxEU and the EBook chapter on the role of trade costs in the great trade collapse of 2008/09.

"Trade Costs and the Open Macroeconomy" Scandinavian Journal of Economics 112(3), September 2010, pp. 514-545.

"Trade Costs in the First Wave of Globalization" Explorations in Economic History 47(2), April 2010, pp. 127-141. Also available as NBER Working Paper #12602 (with David Jacks and Christopher Meissner). The data set is available here.

"Trade Costs, 1870-2000" American Economic Review 98(2), Papers & Proceedings, May 2008, pp. 529-534 (with David Jacks and Christopher Meissner). See the policy column at VoxEU.

Affiliations

Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Associate, Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), London School of Economics

Research Associate, Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Research Fellow, CESifo, Munich

Conferences Organised

LSE/CEP Junior Trade Workshop, September 2022

Early Career Researcher Conference on "The Economics of Brexit", September 2020

LSE/CEP conference: "The Economic Consequences of Brexit", London, September 2018

Warwick conference: "CAGE International Trade Research Day 2018", Warwick University, May 2018

Warwick conference: "CAGE International Trade Research Day 2015", The Shard London, May 2015

CEPR/CAGE/ECARES conference: "Global Fragmentation of Production and Trade Policy", Brussels, September 2014

Warwick conference: "CAGE International Trade Research Day 2013", Warwick University, May 2013

LSE/Warwick conference: "CAGE/CEP Workshop on Trade Policy in a Globalised World", Venice, June 2012

Warwick conference: "CAGE International Trade Research Day", Warwick University, February 2011

Venice conference: "Trade Costs and International Trade Integration: Past, Present and Future", Venice, June 2010

Links for Students and Blogs

Why study economics?

Preparing for Graduate School (hosted by the AEA)

Careers in Economics (hosted by the AEA)

VoxEU.org 

FT Alphaville 

Greg Mankiw's Blog 

Dani Rodrik's Blog

Brad DeLong's Blog 

Economic Principals

EconLog 

Marginal Revolution

Paul Krugman