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New Report Predicts 2.3 Million More Jobs In Next Decade - But No Overall Change in Unemployment

Originally Published - 27 July 2000

A new report by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick predicts that between 1998 and 2009 it expects there to be 2.3 million additional jobs but the level of unemployment is expected to remain stable. The report, edited by Dr Robert Wilson and compiled in support of the National Skills Taskforce, also foresees substantial further changes in employment structure in a number of sectors. These, and some of the other key findings of the report, include :

  • Continued long-term decline in employment in manufacturing & primary sectors (mining, agriculture, & utilities) with a loss of around ? of a million jobs between 1998 & 2009.
  • Services are projected to be the main source of extra jobs, with increases in distribution, hotels & catering and in business & miscellaneous services as well as in non-marketed services, such as health & education services
  • Just over two-thirds of all the additional jobs are expected to be taken by women.
  • Part-time employment is expected to account for almost half the increase in total employment although there is some recovery in the number of full-time jobs.
  • The share of self-employment is expected to decline over the next decade. an additional 2 million jobs for highly qualified persons (NVQ levels 4 & 5) are expected

Winners and Losers. The report also predicts the increases and decreases in the following jobs cover the next decade.

Employment increases are anticipated for:

  • managers & senior officials - almost 300 thousand additional jobs;
  • professional occupations - almost 900 thousand jobs;
  • associate professional & technical occupations - over 800 thousand jobs;
  • personal service occupations - almost 470 thousand jobs;
  • sales occupations - Smaller increases of around 190 thousand jobs are projected

Declining Employment is anticipated for:

  • administrative, clerical & secretarial occupations - where the impact of IT leads to the cessation of previously strong growth and the loss of about 30 thousand jobs.
  • skilled trades occupations - about 270 thousand jobs;
  • process, plant & machine operatives - some 30 thousand jobs;
  • elementary occupations - around 60 thousand jobs;

However the report points out that for all occupations together, replacement demand (including the need to replace those who retire) is over five times larger than expansion demand. Between 1998 and 2009 there is expected to be a net requirement of about 13? million job openings. Retirements are the principal component in this estimate.

Note for Editors: The report was compiled by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics. It represents part of a programme of work carried out on behalf of the National Skills Task Force (STF) funded by the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE).

The full report may be viewed on the new Skillsbase web site at

For further details contact:

Dr Robert Wilson 024 76 523530
Institute for Employment University of Warwick

Further information about the above press release and all other media services at the University of Warwick can be obtained from:

Peter Dunn, Press Officer
Public Affairs Office
Senate House
University of Warwick
Coventry, CV4 7AL
West Midlands
Tel: 024 76 523708