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Statistics: Lucy Letby – Serial Killer or Coincidence? Hypothesis Testing & The Legal System – Prof Jane Hutton, Department of Statistics
What hypothesis test would you use to test whether the death rate on a medical unit has suddenly increased? How would you follow up a significant result which showed the risk of death had doubled?
The conviction of a UK nurse, Lucy Letby, for murdering seven newborn infants has resulted in debate about whether the conviction was safe. Investigating clusters of deaths, infectious diseases or collapses in healthcare settings pose various statistical challenges for forensic investigations.
In this interactive session, we will explore the standard statistical techniques and role of hypothesis testing in epidemiology and public heath. However, their use is not established within criminal investigations. We will consider how statistics are used in actual convictions and miscarriages of justice. Discussion of the important implications of this for Lucy Letby and similar cases will be encouraged.
Prof Hutton is a University of Warwick professor who works in interdisciplinary statistics. She was engaged by the Cheshire police to assist with collecting and evaluation evidence related to deaths at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Lucy Letby. She has collaborated with health professionals and lawyers for many years. Her more mathematical research is inspired by questions raised by patients, doctors and lawyers.
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