Samuel P. C. Brand, Massimo Cavallaro, Fergus Cumming , Charlie Turner , Isaac Florence, Paula Blomquist, Joe Hilton, Laura M. Guzman-Rincon, Thomas House, D. James Nokes and Matt J. Keeling 

Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigated the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.

Nature Communications. July 2023