Latest Publications
Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England
Harrison Manley,Thomas Bayley,Gabriel Danelian, Lucy Burton, Thomas Finnie, Andre Charlett, Nicholas A. Watkins, Paul Birrell, Daniela De Angelis, Matt Keeling, Sebastian Funk, Graham Medley, Lorenzo Pellis, Marc Baguelin, Graeme J. Ackland, Johanna Hutchinson, Steven Riley and Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
Mathematical modelling has played an important role in offering informed advice during the COVID-19 pandemic. In England, a cross government and academia collaboration generated medium-term projections (MTPs) of possible epidemic trajectories over the future 4–6 weeks from a collection of epidemiological models. In this article, we outline this collaborative modelling approach and evaluate the accuracy of the combined and individual model projections against the data over the period Learning from our experience of ensemble modelling during the COVID-19 epidemic, our findings highlight the importance of developing cross-institutional multi-model infectious disease hubs for future outbreak control.