Dr Louise Dyson

Associate Professor (Reader)

Email: L.Dyson@warwick.ac.uk

Phone: 024 765 24975

Office: Mathematical Sciences Building 5.22

Twitter: @DrLouiseDyson

Zeeman Institute webpage

Research Clusters

Microbiology & Infectious Disease

Cells & Development

Quantitative, Systems & Engineering Biology

Warwick Centres and GRPs

Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)

Vacancies and Opportunities

For PhD and postdoctoral opportunities, and interest in potential collaborations, please contact me at the above email address.

Research Interests

I am a Reader in Epidemiology appointed jointly between the School of Life Sciences and the Mathematics Institute. I am also a member of the Zeeman Institute (Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, SBIDER), a cross-departmental group bringing together researchers from different disciplines to better understand the biological world. My research interests involve using techniques from mathematics and statistical physics to analyse biological and epidemiological systems. I am particularly interested in work with strong experimental links and in discovering the simplest possible explanatory mechanisms for observed data. My Zeeman Institute webpage.

My recent work has largely focussed on mathematical modelling of COVID-19, feeding into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) via the modelling subgroup, SPI-M-O and as part of the JUNIPER consortium. More on COVID-19 modelling can be found on the Zeeman Institute webpages and reports that were considered at SAGE can be found on the government webpages. My work particularly concentrated on modelling infection in schools and universities and assessing the spread of novel variants, as well as short and medium-term projections of infection dynamics.

More widely, I undertake modelling to support the eradication or elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), particularly yaws (a bacterial infection that can cause lesions in the skin and bones and is primarily found in tropical areas). This work is in collaboration with Michael Marks at the London School for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Moving away from epidemiology, my research interests also include the mathematical modelling of cellular migration and modelling of “noisy” dynamics, in which randomness plays an important role.

Research: Technical Summary

My research philosophy is to use the best methods for the problem, and am always happy to learn new techniques. My work generally involves building a deterministic or stochastic mathematical model of an epidemiological or biological system, fitting the model to the available data using MCMC and then analysing and/or simulating the fitted model.

Biography

2022-: Reader in Epidemiology, Schools of Maths and Life Sciences, University of Warwick
2020-2022: Associate Professor in Epidemiology, Schools of Maths and Life Sciences, Warwick
2016-2020: Assistant Professor in Epidemiology, Schools of Maths and Life Sciences, Warwick
2015-2016: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, Warwick,
2013-2015: Postdoctoral Research Associate, Manchester, Complex Systems and Stat. Physics Group
2008-2012: Doctorate, University of Oxford, Systems Biology DTC. Mathematical Modelling of the Migration of Cranial Neural Crest Cells. Supervised by Prof. Philip Maini and Dr. Ruth Baker.
2004-2008: M.Math. Balliol College, University of Oxford.

Membership

2022-: Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M)
01/22-03/22: 50% secondment to the Cabinet Office COVID-19 Taskforce
2020-2022: Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational (SPI-M-O) during the COVID-19 pandemic

Associate editor for the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

Editorial board member for the Journal of Theoretical Biology

Publons refereeing record

Publications

Keeling, Matthew James and Dyson, Louise (2024) A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England. PLoS Computational Biology, 20 (9). e1012452. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012452 ISSN 1553-7358.

Vasconcelos, Andreia, King, Jonathan D., Nunes-Alves, Cláudio, Anderson, Roy, Argaw, Daniel, Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Bilal, Shakir, Blok, David J., Blumberg, Seth, Borlase, Anna et al.

(2024) Accelerating progress towards the 2030 neglected tropical diseases targets : how can quantitative modeling support programmatic decisions? Clinical Infectious Diseases, 78 (Supplement_2). S83-S92. doi:10.1093/cid/ciae082 ISSN 1537-6591.

Cavallaro, Massimo, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Todkill, Daniel and Keeling, Matt J. (2023) Spatio-temporal surveillance and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern : a retrospective analysis. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 20 (208). 20230410. doi:10.1098/rsif.2023.0410 ISSN 1742-5689.

Guzmán-Rincón, Laura M., Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2023) Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes : local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 72 (5). pp. 1413-1434. doi:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056 ISSN 1467-9876.

Chan, Y. L. Elaine, Irvine, Michael A., Prystajecky, Natalie, Sbihi, Hind, Marsha, Taylor, Joffres , Yayuk, Schertzer, Andrea, Rose, Caren, Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Tyson, John R., Hoang, Linda M. N. and Galanis, Eleni (2023) Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions, British Columbia, Canada. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 29 (10). pp. 1999-2007. doi:10.3201/eid2910.230055 ISSN 1080-6059.

Nugent, Andrew, Southall, Emma and Dyson, Louise (2022) Exploring the role of the potential surface in the behaviour of early warning signals. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 554 . 111269. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111269 ISSN 0022-5193.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Medicine, 28 . pp. 2416-2423. doi:10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y ISSN 1078-8956.

Fongwen, Noah, Handley, Becca L., Martin, Diana L., Beiras, Camila, Dyson, Louise, Frimpong, Michael, Mitja, Oriol, Asiedu, Kingsley and Marks, Michael (2022) Diagnostics to support the eradication of yaws : development of two target product profiles. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16 (9). e0010554. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010554 ISSN 1935-2727.

Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Semple, Malcolm G., Tildesley, Michael J. and Hill, Edward M. (2022) Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 31 (9). pp. 1716-1737. doi:10.1177/09622802211070257 ISSN 0962-2802.

Keeling, Matthew James, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Moore, Sam (2022) Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England. Nature Communications, 13 . 4924. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0 ISSN 2041-1723.

Tildesley, Michael J., Vassall, Anna, Riley, Steven, Jit, Mark, Sandmann, Frank, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Atkins, Benjamin D., Edmunds, John, Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England : a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society Open Science, 9 (8). 211746. doi:10.1098/rsos.211746 ISSN 2054-5703.

Dyson, Louise (2022) Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22 (7). pp. 915-916. ISSN 1473-3099 doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00163-3

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences : a modelling study. PLOS Computational Biology, 18 (5). e1010158. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158 ISSN 1553-7358.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Holmes, Alexander, Southall, Emma, Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature Communications, 13 (1). 1106. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9 ISSN 2041-1723.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Approximating steady state distributions for household structured epidemic models. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 534 . 110974. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110974 ISSN 0022-5193.

Keeling, Matthew James, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Medley, Graham F. (2021) Precautionary breaks : planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics, 37 . 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526 ISSN 1755-4365.

Sachak-Patwa, Rahil, Byrne, Helen M., Dyson, Louise and Thompson, Robin N. (2021) The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions. Communications Medicine, 1 . 39. doi:10.1038/s43856-021-00038-8 ISSN 2730-664X.

Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Moore, Sam, Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Tildesley, Michael J., Lythgoe, Katrina A., House, Thomas, Pellis, Lorenzo and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12 . 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 ISSN 2041-1723.

Southall, Emma, Brett, Tobias S., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions : a review. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18 (182). 20210555. ISSN 1742-5662 doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0555

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics, 36 . 100476. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100476 ISSN 1755-4365.

Enright, Jessica, Hill, Edward M., Stage, Helena B., Bolton, Kirsty J., Nixon, Emily J., Fairbanks, Emma L., Tang, Maria L., Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Dyson, Louise, Budd, Chris J., Hoyle, Rebecca B., Schewe, Lars, Gog, Julia R. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students : lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science , 8 (8). 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310 ISSN 2054-5703.

Clark, Jessica, Stolk, Wilma A., Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Coffeng, Luc E., Cucunubá, Zulma M., Dixon, Matthew A., Dyson, Louise, Hampson, Katie, Marks, Michael, Medley, Graham F., Pollington, Timothy M., Prada, Joaquín M., Rock, Kat S., Salje, Henrik, Toor, Jaspreet and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2021) How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Gates Open Research, 5 . 112. ISSN 2572-4754 doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.2

Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J., Atkins, Benjamin D., Penman, Bridget S., Southall, Emma, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, McKimm, Hector, Gorsich, Erin E., Hill, Edward M. and Dyson, Louise (2021) The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261 ISSN 0962-8436.

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population : an application to SARS-CoV-2. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (6). e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058 ISSN 1553-7358.

Southall, Emma, Holmes, Alexander, Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Leng, Trystan, Thompson, Robin N., Dyson, Louise, Keeling, Matthew James and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine, 19 (1). 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x ISSN 1741-7015.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 : a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21 (6). pp. 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2 ISSN 1473-3099.

Lowe-Power, Tiffany, Dyson, Louise and Polter, Abigail M. (2021) A generation of junior faculty is at risk from the impacts of COVID-19. PLoS Biology, 19 (5). e3001266. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001266 ISSN 1545-7885.

Challen, Robert, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Read, Jonathan M., Dyson, Louise, Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira and Danon, Leon (2021) Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1 : matched cohort study. BMJ, 372 . n579. doi:10.1136/bmj.n579 ISSN 0959-535X.

Keeling, Matt J., Hill, Edward M., Gorsich, Erin E., Penman, Bridget S., Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Leng, Trystan, McKimm, Hector, Tamborrino, Massimiliano, Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK : short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (1). e1008619. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619 ISSN 1553-7358.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (5). e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849 ISSN 1553-7358.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J., Solomon, Anthony W., Mabey, David C. W., Sokana, Oliver, Marks, Michael and Dyson, Louise (2020) Modelling treatment strategies to inform Yaws eradication. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 26 (11). pp. 2685-2693. doi:10.3201/eid2611.191491 ISSN 1080-6059.

Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2020) Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data : application to epidemiological incidence data. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (9). e1007836. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007836 ISSN 1553-7358.

Dessavre, Adjani Gama, Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2019) The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 481 . pp. 183-193. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.04.011 ISSN 0022-5193.

Dyson, Louise, Mooring, Eric Q., Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Marks, Michael (2019) Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws. Gates Open Research, 3 . 1576. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1 ISSN 2572-4754.

Dyson, Louise, Holmes, Alexander, Li, Ang and Kulesa, Paul M. (2018) A chemotactic model of trunk neural crest cell migration. Genesis: The Journal of Genetics and Development, 56 (9). e23239. doi:10.1002/dvg.23239 ISSN 1526-954X.

Dyson, Louise and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2018) Diagnosing risk factors alongside mass drug administration using serial diagnostic tests - which test first? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 112 (7). pp. 342-348. doi:10.1093/trstmh/try062 ISSN 0035-9203.

Dyson, Louise, Marks, Michael, Crook, Oliver M., Sokana, Oliver, Solomon, Anthony W., Bishop, Alex, Mabey, David C. W. and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2018) Targeted treatment of yaws with contact tracing : how much do we miss? American Journal of Epidemiology, 184 (4). pp. 837-844. doi:10.1093/aje/kwx305 ISSN 0002-9262.

Dyson, Louise, Stolk, Wilma, Farrell, Sam H. and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2017) Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration. Epidemics, 18 . pp. 56-66. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.002 ISSN 1755-4365.

Lafuerz, Luis F., Dyson, Louise, Edmonds, Bruce and McKane, Alan J. (2016) Simplification and analysis of a model of social interaction in voting. Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 89 (7). 159. ISSN 1434-6028.

Lafuerza, Luis F., Dyson, Louise, Edmonds, Bruce and McKane, Alan J. (2016) Staged models for interdisciplinary research. PLoS One, 11 (6). e0157261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0157261 ISSN 1932-6203.

NTD Modelling Consortium (Including:

Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Adams, Emily R., Anderson, Roy M., Atkins, Katherine, Bartsch, Sarah, Basáñez, María-Gloria, Behrend, Matthew, Blok, David J., Chapman, Lloyd A. C., Coffeng, Luc et al.

). (2015) Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). 630 . doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1 ISSN 1756-3305.

Dyson, Louise, Yates, Christian A., Buhl, Jerome and McKane, Alan J. (2015) Onset of collective motion in locusts is captured by a minimal model. Physical Review E, 92 (5). 052708 . doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.92.052708 ISSN 1539-3755.

Chapman, Lloyd A. C., Dyson, Louise, Courtenay, Orin, Chowdhury, Rajib, Bern, Caryn, Medley, Graham and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2015) Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). pp. 1-13. 521. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1136-3 ISSN 1756-3305.

Dyson, Louise and Baker, Ruth E. (2015) The importance of volume exclusion in modelling cellular migration. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 71 (3). pp. 691-711. doi:10.1007/s00285-014-0829-0 ISSN 0303-6812.

Biancalani, Tommaso, Dyson, Louise and McKane, Alan J. (2015) The statistics of fixation times for systems with recruitment. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2015 (1). P01013. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2015/01/P01013 ISSN 1742-5468.

Biancalani, Tommaso, Dyson, Louise and McKane, Alan J. (2014) Noise-induced bistable states and their mean switching time in foraging colonies. Physical Review Letters, 112 (3). 038101. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.038101 ISSN 0031-9007.

Dyson, Louise, Maini, Philip K. and Baker, Ruth E. (2012) Macroscopic limits of individual-based models for motile cell populations with volume exclusion. Physical Review E, 86 (3). 031903 . doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.031903 ISSN 1539-3755.

Collins-Hooper, Henry, Woolley, Thomas E., Dyson, Louise, Patel, Anand, Potter, Paul, Baker, Ruth E., Gaffney, Eamonn A., Maini, Philip K., Dash, Philip R. and Patel, Ketan (2012) Age-related changes in speed and mechanism of adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration. Stem Cells, 30 (6). pp. 1182-1195. doi:10.1002/stem.1088 ISSN 1066-5099.

Tindall, Marcus J., Dyson, Louise, Smallbone, Kieran and Maini, Philip K. (2012) Modelling acidosis and the cell cycle in multicellular tumour spheroids. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 298 . pp. 107-115. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.11.009 ISSN 0022-5193.

McLennan, R., Dyson, Louise, Prather, K. W., Morrison, J. A., Baker, R. E., Maini, P. K. and Kulesa, P. M. (2012) Multiscale mechanisms of cell migration during development : theory and experiment. Development , 139 (16). pp. 2935-2944. doi:10.1242/dev.081471 ISSN 0950-1991.

Research Projects

Title	Funder	Award start	Award end
Modelling for the HAT Endgame	Gates Foundation	19 Nov 2020	30 Apr 2025
TRANSCRIPTION AND NUCLEAR PHASE TRANSITIONS	UK Research and Innovation	01 Apr 2019	31 Dec 2022
COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic.	UK Research and Innovation	01 May 2020	07 Jul 2021
Using Mathematical modelling to analyse incomplete diagnostic data to inform Yaws eradication efforits - GCRF Institutional Award 2016	EPSRC	01 Aug 2016	31 Mar 2017

Teaching / Student Supervision