Latest Publications
The influence of farm connectedness on foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in livestock
Jean B. Contina, Rachel L. Seibel, Bhim Chaulagain, Karasi B. Mills, Michael J. Tildesley, Christopher C. Mundt
We applied a previously published livestock foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) model to estimate host connectivity using a transmission kernel based on contact tracing and measured subsequent to an animal movement ban in the 2001 United Kingdom epidemic. Connectivity within county-level farm landscapes were evaluated by considering the transmission kernel, host species composition, farm-level susceptibility, farm-level transmissibility, and distances between farms. Connectivity of the initially infected farm and mean connectivity among all farms in a county were strongly associated with effects of cull size, with disease control more effective at lower levels of farm connectivity. Host connectivity provides early information on the host-pathogen landscape and could be used as an assessment tool for predicting epidemic risks, as well as enabling preemptive control strategies to limit the size of disease outbreaks.