Challenges
Enhance surveillance and epidemiological predictions for Infectious Disease control
Infectious diseases are evolving rapidly, making timely detection and critical responses essential for informed policy decisions for public health. It is vitally important that policy decisions for public health are based on robust projections using the latest epidemiological data. There is an essential requirement to utilise data science (including mathematical and statistical modelling), genomic tools, syndromic surveillance, and evidence synthesis to predict, monitor, and control outbreaks.
Breakthroughs:
Surveillance and Data Science: We are developing novel methods to provide unique insights on a range of key infectious diseases, to support surveillance systems such as near-real time syndromic surveillance to understand which infectious agents are causing changes in healthcare presentations. Our data and evidence synthesis aim to deliver the best available insights and evidence to decision makers on a range of infectious disease threats; ranging from antimicrobial resistance, surveillance of neglected tropical diseases or vaccination strategies to health protection parameters of infectious diseases. We investigate the use of new methodologies such as machine learning to identify changes in levels of infectious diseases from what is expected, enabling rapid public health interventions, or predict winter health care pressures.
Epidemiological Predictions for Policy: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Warwick researchers provided a range of projections and analyses to the UK government including: short- and medium-term projections such as the Roadmap to reopening documents in 2021; the role of schools in the spread of infection; the risks associated with universities and other closed setting; and the spread of novel variants (from Alpha to Omicron). We are currently working closely with UKHSA and DEFRA on analysis zoonotic spillover potential of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Our work has international reach as we have worked closely with researchers at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Centre to provide similar assistance to the Kenyan Ministry of Health, with the Department of Health in the Philippines on the development of integrated bite case management protocols to support the elimination of canine rabies and on strategies to minimise zoonotic transmission of HPAI in Bangladesh and Thailand. We also work on the control of Neglected Tropical Diseases. Of particular note is the HATMEPP (Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy) project, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which supports ongoing global interventions to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT or sleeping sickness).
Genomics for outbreak investigation: We have been developing a toolbox made of several methods for the analysis of pathogen genomic data. This includes methods to reconstruct phylogenies, estimate ancestral dates, detect outbreaks, reconstruct transmission trees, identify imports, analyse antibiotic resistance dynamics.
Challenge Lead
Dan Todkill
