Forecasts for Aphis fabae
The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude. These are the predictions for 2022 based on the mean temperature during January to April.
First | 10% aphids | 50% aphids | |
Cornwall | 14-May | 10-Jun | 8-Jul |
Kent | 5-May | 15-Jun | 5-Jul |
Suffolk | 11-May | 22-Jun | 10-Jul |
Wellesbourne | 18-May | 22-Jun | 14-Jul |
Norfolk | 13-May | 25-Jun | 12-Jul |
South Lincs | 20-May | 28-Jun | 17-Jul |
Nottingham | 25-May | 30-Jun | 19-Jul |
Lancashire | 31-May | 1-Jul | 23-Jul |
York | 28-May | 4-Jul | 22-Jul |
Scotland | 4-Jun | 18-Jul | 31-Jul |