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Forecasts for Aphis fabae

The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude. These are the predictions for 2022 based on the mean temperature during January to April.

  First 10% aphids 50% aphids
Cornwall 14-May 10-Jun 8-Jul
Kent 5-May 15-Jun 5-Jul
Suffolk 11-May 22-Jun 10-Jul
Wellesbourne 18-May 22-Jun 14-Jul
Norfolk 13-May 25-Jun 12-Jul
South Lincs 20-May 28-Jun 17-Jul
Nottingham 25-May 30-Jun 19-Jul
Lancashire 31-May 1-Jul 23-Jul
York 28-May 4-Jul 22-Jul
Scotland 4-Jun 18-Jul 31-Jul