Forecasts for Aphis fabae
The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude.
Forecast based on air temperatures (January-April)
First | 10% aphids | 50% aphids | |
---|---|---|---|
Cornwall | 16-May | 11-Jun | 9-Jul |
Kent | 7-May | 17-Jun | 6-Jul |
Suffolk | 8-May | 20-Jun | 8-Jul |
Wellesbourne | 24-May | 27-Jun | 17-Jul |
Norfolk | 16-May | 27-Jun | 14-Jul |
South Lincs | 23-May | 1-Jul | 18-Jul |
Nottingham | 25-May | 30-Jun | 19-Jul |
Lancashire | 30-May | 30-Jun | 22-Jul |
York | 26-May | 3-Jul | 21-Jul |
Scotland | 6-Jun | 20-Jul | 2-Aug |