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Forecasts for Aphis fabae

The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude.

Forecast based on air temperatures (January-April)

  First 10% aphids 50% aphids
Cornwall 16-May 11-Jun 9-Jul
Kent 7-May 17-Jun 6-Jul
Suffolk 8-May 20-Jun 8-Jul
Wellesbourne 24-May 27-Jun 17-Jul
Norfolk 16-May 27-Jun 14-Jul
South Lincs 23-May 1-Jul 18-Jul
Nottingham 25-May 30-Jun 19-Jul
Lancashire 30-May 30-Jun 22-Jul
York 26-May 3-Jul 21-Jul
Scotland 6-Jun 20-Jul 2-Aug