Forecasts for Aphis fabae
The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude.
Forecast based on air temperatures (January-April)
First | 10% aphids | 50% aphids | |
Cornwall | 15-May | 11-Jun | 9-Jul |
Kent | 25-Apr | 8-Jun | 30-Jun |
Suffolk | 25-Apr | 10-Jun | 2-Jul |
Wellesbourne | 15-May | 19-Jun | 12-Jul |
Norfolk | 5-May | 18-Jun | 8-Jul |
South Lincs | 13-May | 22-Jun | 13-Jul |
Nottingham | 15-May | 22-Jun | 14-Jul |
Lancashire | 27-May | 28-Jun | 21-Jul |
York | 21-May | 29-Jun | 19-Jul |
Scotland | 5-Jun | 19-Jul | 1-Aug |