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Forecasts for Aphis fabae

The timing of the migration of Aphis fabae at any location can be predicted using the mean air temperature and the site’s latitude and longitude. A range of equations were produced in AHDB Project FV 407a describing the relationships between the dates of first, 10% and 50% capture of aphids in suction traps and the mean air temperature over different periods and site latitude and longitude.

Forecast based on air temperatures (January-April)

  First 10% aphids 50% aphids
Cornwall 15-May 11-Jun 9-Jul
Kent 25-Apr 8-Jun 30-Jun
Suffolk 25-Apr 10-Jun 2-Jul
Wellesbourne 15-May 19-Jun 12-Jul
Norfolk 5-May 18-Jun 8-Jul
South Lincs 13-May 22-Jun 13-Jul
Nottingham 15-May 22-Jun 14-Jul
Lancashire 27-May 28-Jun 21-Jul
York 21-May 29-Jun 19-Jul
Scotland 5-Jun 19-Jul 1-Aug