Point forecasts, the traditional focus of macroeconomic forecasters, are best interpreted as the central points of ranges of uncertainty. The Warwick Business School Forecasting System quantifies and communicates these forecast uncertainties by producing probabilistic forecasts. In addition, these assessments of forecast uncertainty are regularly assessed and evaluated to ensure they provide reliable indicators of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The Warwick Business School Forecasting System provides competitive and well-calibrated density forecasts. The system emphasises the communication of probabilistic forecasts for events of specific interest, such as a contraction of GDP or a breach of the Bank of England’s inflation target.
Details of the Warwick Business School Forecasting System, including an evaluation of its past forecasting performance are available at the link.
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If you have comments and questions about the the WBS Forecasting System, please contact Prof. Ana Galvao.