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The Eighth Warwick Empirical Modelling Bulletin (WEB-EM-8) / 2011-12

Visualisation of Influence in Go [Paper-6 (PDF Document), Model-4 (ZIP or other archive)]

Anees Ahee

In this paper I detail my implementation of a Go client using the CADENCE tool for Empirical Modelling. My model has features that are useful for teaching abstract concepts such as ‘influence’.

Gas Station Model [Paper-4 (PDF Document), Model-6 (ZIP or other archive)]

Tie Chen

Gas station is a common but very important place, in which we not only can refuelling, but also can buy snacks. With the development of society, there are more and more services in gas station, which has brought us many conveniences for our life and work. In the service of gas station, it mainly divides into auto service and artificial service, e.g. you can use card payment or cash payment for refuelling. This paper focuses on the working principle of gas station and research about the dependencies between the objects of vehicles, pumpers, shop etc. And then through developing an Empirical Modelling model to simulate gas station situation so as to help the people who can use my model to understand the gas station working principle better.

ParPar : A Preliminary Application of Js-Eden [Paper-5 (PDF Document), Model-5 (ZIP or other archive)]

Matthew Cranham

This paper explores the current state of using Js-Eden for modelling with definitive notations. This has been achieved through modelling of the parallel parking maneuver of reverse parking a car into a gap between two currently parked cars. The process of constructing this model evaluates the current definitive notations supported by Js-Eden for constructing dependencies between observables, and for drawing to the screen, highlighting any issues which arised. It also draws attention to areas of Js-Eden which needed enhancing and extending from the base state it was supplied with to achieve the final stage of model development, and similarities and differences between Js-Eden and other tools for modelling with definitive notations.

Empirical Modelling, Linear programming and optimisation [Paper-3 (PDF Document), Model-7 (ZIP or other archive)]

Zhetong Fang

This paper discusses the use of Empirical Modelling in Linear programming and optimization. We will go through the design of this model and look at how the methods link variables to be a model together with the advantages and disadvantages of this model. Finally, we will conclude with the problems faced during programming and the further work could be done in both this particular model and the EM.

A Study of Empirical Modelling with Application to Historical Information Processing Methods, Using an Example of Punch Cards in Cadence. [Paper-6 (PDF Document), Model-4 (ZIP or other archive)]

Philip Gibbs

This paper will investigate how Empirical Modelling could be used as a way of teaching how information was processed in previous generations, using historical methods and devices. Computer programming has changed over time with the evolution of computers, and to this day, many of the old programming methods are still in use—directly and indirectly. However, the very first mechanical and electronic computers used a very different, hands-on approach to programming, involving much interaction with the hardware itself. Programs would be fed into the computer using punch cards — physical cards that contained encoded information in the form of holes. Later computers would use similar mechanisms such as punched tape, or physical manipulation of the machine’s own switches and cables. These machines are no longer readily produced or available, and as such it is not easy to have a practical investigation or experimentation of the methods that were used to program the very first computers. The paper will explore the feasibility of using Empirical Modelling to provide representations of punch cards, to teach users the basis of historical programming methods and to allow them to experiment and learn from these models, without needing access to the hardware itself.

Abacus and Empirical Modelling [Paper-7 (PDF Document), Model-3 (ZIP or other archive)]

Jona Gjini

Abacus as a calculated tool has been used in schools and other areas for many years. Throughout this paper it is going to be examined how to use an abacus can be taught, how easy or difficult that can be and also how some aspects of Empirical Modelling (EM) can be used in order to help learning how to use the abacus without actually knowing in advance how it works.

An Empirical Model for Live Sports Betting Odds Calculation [Paper-3 (PDF Document), Model-7 (ZIP or other archive)]

Sebastian Krämer

Sports betting is a hobby for a lot of people and a main income for a few. During the last years, due to the growing population of broadband internet connections, online bookmakers began to operate and meanwhile the main part of the sports betting turnover worldwide is done online. With the online bookmakers coming up, there was also a new way of betting introduced: live betting. Customers are now able to place bets while the actual game is still running, using the websites of the online bookmakers. This development also forced bookmakers to develop new formulas for calculating their odds for the live events, considering new factors like the time that was played so far, the goals that were scored so far and others. However, almost all bookmakers copy their odds for football events of big Asian bookmakers and partly betting exchanges. There, odds are driven by single users betting high amounts. The details of why an odd is as high or low as it is in reality is far behind the scope of this paper, because there are other important factors like the possibility of arbitrage betting influencing the market. Nevertheless, it is fact that either if it’s the bookmakers to set the odds or if it’s the odds driven by single “high rollers”, there is definitely someone calculating probabilities and therefore odds and making the market. This project tries to model the calculation of live betting odds using the Empirical Modelling approach. Empirical modelling allows developers to create flexible models, using spread sheet like techniques enabling the user to change so called “observables” while the program is running. This is very useful for a model of sports betting odds calculation, because the main issue in calculating the odds and developing formulas for it is the influence of the single factors like goals scored so far, time played so far etc. and as well their weighting within the formulas. Flexible “observables” in this case enable the user to change these factors and their weighting “on-the-fly”, helping them to possibly find “good”, working formulas for the odds calculation. In the project, there are only odds for the amounts of goals scored in total, e.g. over/under 2,5 goals. This is an Asian notation that avoids “draws” and therefore “cash backs” (e.g. when it would be over/under 2 goals, there is the possibility of exactly two goals scored, meaning there must be a third outcome, a “draw”). The notation is also quite common in European bookmakers. It was chosen to only calculate this odds and leaving e.g. the “who wins” market aside, as there are more than two outcomes in that market and finding a decent formula for calculating would be even harder. However, the formula used in this model have been developed especially for this model, there is no reference around as well as there is only very few common knowledge available for this kind of calculations, as an exact formula for this would be a very valuable asset, because it would enable its owner to beat the market.

Business Model for a New Venture [Paper-7 (PDF Document), Model-3 (ZIP or other archive)]

Isaac Lewis

Spreadsheets are by far the most common tools for end-user development - that is, they are the only Turing-complete artifacts most people will ever "program". Roe, noting that spreadsheets are frequently used as a metaphor and an example of empirical modelling principles, implemented an EDEN-based spreadsheet framework in 2002. This framework was used as the basis to build a business model for a new venture, which the author intends to launch later this year. The same task had also been attempted in Microsoft Excel, giving insights into the relative utility of the two frameworks. The Lean Startup Methodology, a conceptual framework intended to turn entrepreneurship into a true management science by distilling assumptions into testable hypotheses, was a key cognitive tool used throughout the process. Both the model itself and the task of building it helped solidify and test certain assumptions about the venture, proving the usefulness of EM techniques in computerized decision support.

Idealist Timetabling [Paper-3 (PDF Document), Model-7 (ZIP or other archive)]

Lung Li

The traditional way of timetabling regards user as a realist, who has fix future plan and tolerates any imperfection of the computed timetable which generates with certain algorithm. However, this time-tabling style ignores the changing environment, which affects the plan of user at anytime anyway. Therefore, idealist timetabling approach which adopted a user-computer cooperation mode is pro-posed to better consider this factor. Idealist time-tabling allows user to alter their plan anytime, even after the result has been generated. There is no final outcome under this style of timetable since the time-table can always be improved. This paper realize idealist timetabling by constructing a model using Empirical Modelling tool. The model situates time slot registration for third year student oral presentation. It allows teacher to update their schedule and student always gets an up-to-date schedule combin-ing the timetable of their supervisor, assessor and moderator, plus the current selected room. This model illustrates the characteristic of idealist time-tabling, and also explores the possibility of human computing.

An Empirical Approach of the Air Battle Game [Paper-4 (PDF Document), Model-6 (ZIP or other archive)]

Yile Liu

Air battle is a kind of classic strategy game which is similar to the battleship game, but instead of navy ships it has airplanes. The shape of plane is like “.”, which is mainly different with the shape of battleship in battleship game. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the applicability of Empirical Modeling principle to such a process by establishing the model of the game. Generally, there are two players will be needed in this game, and every player hide three planes respectively, however this model only constructs simple model which only have one plane. In addition, depending on every action, the potential position of the tip of plane will be discussed and implemented in the third section.

An Early Evaluation of Js-Eden through the Modelling of Eightball [Paper-5 (PDF Document), Model-5 (ZIP or other archive)]

Jessica Nickson

Model development through the use of observables, dependency and agency has been well supported by the tkeden tool for a number of years (Beynon, 2010). This paper is focussed on a new browser based environment, called Js-Eden, in order to establish its qualities including its support for empirical modelling methodologies. The method of investigating these qualities was to carry out a model development exercise from scratch, which is intended to simulate a break in a game of eightball. This paper includes a discussion on the development of the model, extensions made to Js-Eden over the course of the project and some of the issues in the tool that remain to be resolved.

Extension on Interactive Empirical Modelling of Aircraft Simulation [Paper-5 (PDF Document), Model-5 (ZIP or other archive)]

Jilong Qin

In this paper, I will improve the interactive simulation case designed with definitive notation and interactive principles of the Empirical Modelling. The DCS student of University of Warwick has developed a simulation model of aircraft by Empirical Modelling. So I need to add some new interesting functions to the model. In the computer science, building an accurate model and observing objects exist in the real world play a really important role in related research field. Empirical Modelling is a good way to build an experiential and exact interactive environment. With the Empirical Modelling, I can build and make simulation in the experiment, and use the experience to model the unknown iteration and situations. In the aircraft simulation, I will extend the more circumstances such as how the wind impacts on the aircraft, demonstrating the track of flight, how the aircraft turns Left/Right. These functions are lack in previous model. Based on the Empirical Modelling, constructing a real world situation becomes easier, the visual part of simulation is programmed in Scout and Donald, e.g. Aircraft Body, steering, meters, and the core functions will be implemented in the Eden, e.g. Record the tracks, count speed, detect changes of environment, departure, arrive. All interaction could be presented and constructed in the Empirical Modelling. Observables, dependencies, agencies will be emphasis in this model. In following paper, I will present observables, dependencies, agencies in my improved model based on the previous model which simulated the aircraft interaction and show how Empirical Modelling principles are used in the this model.

An Empirical Modelling Approach to Effects of Running [Paper-3 (PDF Document), Model-7 (ZIP or other archive)]

Robert Schiller

Jogging/Running is one of the sports that is more and more in common. Hence it is very important to reveal some ‘outputs’. This paper is an approach dealing with some effects of running referred to 5 different body types of human beings. It aims to affect people’s interesting in this kind of sport and to make them aware of the dangers and its prevention.

Using Empirical Modelling to show solutions of Decision- making [Paper-7 (PDF Document), Model-3 (ZIP or other archive)]

Sharon Secondus

Decision- making is something we come across everyday at work, home, almost any where, the act of us deciding whether to go home from work or stop by the grocery store is an act of decision-making. Decision- making is an environment in which the process of choosing using cognitive process to weigh options for the benefit of something, decision-making can apply to various domains, management, Finance, Computer systems and much more, the art of decision-making using technology became popular in the 90's companies such as SAP, Sugar Customer Relationship Management, Google have showed the success in these systems. Decision - making has always been presented through Software Development, some features and the facet of some decision making software is based around Observables, Dependencies and Agencies which envelope the Empirical Modelling approach. It will be a different approach using the construal to show how decision can be made between two partner oil companies. The principles of Empirical Modelling will be applied to a situational scenario and it will be compared to other approaches, this paper will cover constructionism and perception as aspects to Empirical Modelling and other approaches.

An Empirical Modelling Approach to Text Processing [Paper-6 (PDF Document), Model-4 (ZIP or other archive)]

Robert Steele

This paper discusses the application of Empirical Modelling(EM) principles and techniques to text processing. The paper then presents a specification for such an environment. The corresponding model is a partial implementation of this in EDEN(Engine for Definitive Notations). Finally, the model is evaluated and further improvements are suggested.

Exploring Empirical Modelling and Web-Enabled EM Tools [Paper-3 (PDF Document), Model-7 (ZIP or other archive)]

Yu Pang Yip

This paper explores web-enabled EM tools through a classic game development (Battleship using JsEden). In this scenario, empirical modeling principles introduced three new concepts: observable, dependency and agency. These concepts give a way of “thinking-with-computer”. The basic aim of this paper is to explore how to adapt EM with web-enabled EM tools and develop a classic game such as Battleship using JsEden.