Macroeconomics and International
Macroeconomics and International Economics
The Macro and International Economics Research Group consists of faculty and PhD students and is primarily a research group. Most of the interaction centres around our weekly seminar and workshop, but we also take responsibility for the teaching curriculum in macroeconomics, international finance and international trade. Our members are also affiliated with the Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE), the Centre for Macroeconomics (CfM), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). We frequently host visitors for research seminars or longer stays.
At the heart of the group's interaction are the weekly seminar for external visitors and a weekly workshop for internal faculty and PhD students. Our other events include annual workshops in empirical macro (with Warwick Business School), international trade (with CAGE) and the "Micro and Macro" workshops (with the Econometrics and Labour Group), occasional conferences, an internal summer workshop, reading groups, and a welcome lunch for the new PhD students at the start of the academic year.
Our activities
Macroeconomics and International Economics Seminar
Thursday: 2.00-3.30pm
For faculty and PhD students at Warwick and other top-level academic institutions across the world. For a detailed scheduled of speakers confirmed please follow the Events link below.
Organisers: Federico Rossi, Christine Braun and Marta Santamaria
Macroeconomics and International Economics Workshop
Tuesday: 12.00-1.00pm
For faculty and PhD students at Warwick and occasional external speakers, to present their work and give feedback to each other. For a detailed scheduled of speakers confirmed please follow the Events link below.
Organisers: David Boll and Andrea Guerrieri D’Amati
People
Academics
Academics associated with the Macroeconomics Reseach Group are:
Events
Macro/International Seminar - Marta Garcia (Bank of Spain)
Title: The Role of Confidence Measures in European Unemployment Dynamics.
Abstract: This paper explores the role of confidence measures in macroeconomic dynamics, focusing on their impact on unemployment in Europe. Using a mixed-frequency Panel FAVAR model with data from 22 European countries, we find that confidence shocks, which have no immediate effect on productivity or unemployment, are strongly correlated with non-technological shocks driving long-term unemployment dynamics. By applying a simultaneous identification approach with short- and long-run restrictions, we show that confidence shocks account for approximately 50% of unemployment variance in the medium run. These results support the “news” view of confidence and challenge both the traditional view that focuses solely on technological news and the conventional belief that technological news shocks are the primary drivers of business cycles, suggesting instead that confidence-related shocks linked to non-technological factors play a significant role. To validate our empirical findings, we develop a structural search and matching model, demonstrating that under adaptive learning, confidence shocks in the form of news can explain a substantial portion of unemployment fluctuations. This research shifts the focus from technological to confidence-related shocks, providing new insights into labor market dynamics. (Authors: Marta Garcia Rodriguez (BdE) and Clemente Pinilla Torremocha (BoE & ERUNI))