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Session 2: Methodological Lessons

Occupational Labour Demand and Supply in Canada

Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has been involved in the production of analytical outputs and the productions of Labour Market Information (LMI) for nearly 30 years. The outputs of the Canadian Occupational Projection system (COPS) are used by partners within HRSDC, other federal departments (such as citizenship and Immigration Canada), provincial partners and sector councils. Furthermore, one of the central goals of COPS is the dissemination of labour market information to the public through publications or online. The Canadian Occupational Projection System is also used as an internal tool for policy research and evaluation.

While existing literature adequately describes the outlines of the system which existed in the 1990s, significant improvements have been made in the last 15 years. Nevertheless, significant conceptual and technical challenges to the provision of occupational outlooks remain. This presentation will focus on the purpose and aims of the COPS National Model. Central to the discussion will be how the system arrives at an assessment of broad skill and occupational imbalances. Finally, technical and logistical challenges as well as innovations to the system will be highlighted.

The FIT Labour Supply Model for Germany

The presentation of the Fraunhofer FIT labour supply model for Germany will include a brief history of the Fraunhofer FIT labour supply projections as well as a description of the purpose of the model. In addition a brief overview over the underlying methodical concepts such as the decomposition of the baseline population into in education and not in education will be given. The main characteristics of these two groups will be discussed – for the part of the population in education; the Fraunhofer FIT transition model of the education system will be described. The labour supply model, which can be summarized as follows, will be briefly introduced:

The Fraunhofer FIT labour supply projections are based on transition models, in which the future labour force levels are modeled by means of entry and exit from a given baseline population. These labour supply projections are differentiated for 4 qualification levels and 54 occupational fields. The Fraunhofer FIT approach relies on the three basic elements: A population projection, a transition model of the educational and training system in order to quantify the additional labour supply from these sources and an analysis of workforce-participation. The additional labour supply (differentiated in qualification levels and occupational fields) is projected with the help of an explicit model of the German educational system, taking into account transitions between educational institutions. The number of persons in individual training, as well as the number of transitions from and to individual education and labour market is considered in the model.

The focus of the talk will be on the model of the German educational system. In this context, the differences between projection based on the Labour Force Survey (or the Mikrozensus) and the explicit model of the transitions in the educational system will be discussed. It will be discussed which methods can used to determine and forecast transitions in education. In addition some pitfalls, specific to German labour supply models (e.g. changes in the German military service), will be shown. Finally, a conclusion and a brief outlook concerning further research and improvements will be given.

Speakers

  • Nicolas Tremblay-Côté
  • Luke Ignaczak
  • Michael Kalinowski
  • Carsten Hänisch