Forecasting Service
Range of Services | Local Employment Analysis and Forecasts | Access to National Datasets | Charges | Contact | European Labour Market Assessments
Range of Services
The Institute can provide employment projections tailored to the client's individual requirements. UK Forecasts are currently produced to the year 2020 with full detail of the time profiles between now and then. The main dimensions available are as follows:
- industries (up to 41 sectors distinguished, 2007 SIC), plus Sector Skills Council footprints
- gender
- type (full-time, part-time, self-employed)
- region
- occupation (25 sub-major groups on both SOC 2000 and SOC 2010 basis)
In addition, the Institute has developed models which enable the production of projections distinguishing:
- qualifications
- general and key skills
- age
- temporary work
Historical data are available on a consistent basis. Over the past 20 years the Institute has assembled a large databank of labour market statistics. This has included the development of long time series on employment by industry, status, region and occupation. While these are based on official data sources, the Institute has placed great emphasis on producing consistent data sets despite the many and frequent changes in classification and definition used in the official data sets. The current sectoral employment database extends back to 1948, far longer than the 1981-date period covered by most alternatives. Such information is crucial to understanding the longer-term trends influencing the labour market.
Local Employment Analysis and Forecasts
From an early stage, the Institute has included a spatial dimension in its labour market assessment work. Initially, this concentrated on the Standard Planning Regions including Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Institute then developed the pathbreaking Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) software package (in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics). At a broader level, the current analyses focus on an area covered by the Government Offices and Regional Development Agencies. This facilitates the development of consistent projections for any local geography, including the sub-regional areas covered.
The Local Economy Forecasting Model is a state of the art software tool which enables projections at local level to be developed linked to the Institute's national and regional forecasts. The Institute can also provide comparable data sets at local level, all on a consistent basis with information available at regional and national level.
The Institute is also able to facilitate access to the major national datasets such as the Labour Force Survey, Annual Business Survey (ABS), Census of Population and many others. While these data are available from Office for National Statistics, the Institute's expertise in accessing and interrogating these sources can save clients considerable expense in obtaining data crucial to their particular requirements.
While it is possible to provide details of charges for certain 'standard' sets of results, the typical situation is one in which the client requires results customised to their own particular purposes. The charges in such areas are subject to negotiation.
There are significant discounts for regular customers. The charge for the second and any subsequent repeat purchase is 50 per cent less. Forecasts are updated every 6 months. Discounts are also available for those requiring data for more than one geographical area.
Clients are invited to call
- Professor Rob Wilson 44-(0)-24-76523530 email R.A.Wilson@warwick.ac.uk
- Professor Robert Lindley, Tel: 44-(0)-24-76523503, Fax:44-(0)-24-76524958 email R.M.Lindley@warwick.ac.uk
to discuss their requirements in more detail.
European Labour Market Assessments
The IER was the first research group in Europe to produce a regular assessment of prospects for the structure of employment distinguishing employment by sector, occupation, employment status, and gender. The Institute has been the lead contractor or a major partner in a number of key international projects concerned with the assessment of European labour market developments and prospects, usually funded by the Commission of the European Communities. Most recently it has led a series of major projects funded by Cedefop. Through its European programme and a network of collaborating institutions and individuals, the IER is able to provide a wide range of quantitative and qualitative scenarios and projections.
A Pan-European Forecasting Model is under development. More details....
