Labour Market and Skills intelligence

Overview

IER’s research theme on the labour market and skills intelligence is a cross cutting theme drawing upon our strengths as an interdisciplinary team. It has an established track record in investigating the interface between the labour market and that of the education and training system. We have adopted an interdisciplinary approach to analysing the extent, causes and consequences of skill deficiencies, making a major contribution to national debates at both national and international levels.

IER has an international reputation in labour market assessment and forecasting, and is a leader in this field in the UK. IER has been engaged in medium-term labour market projections since 1975. IER’s forecasts have been undertaken for UK government departments under the Working Futures banner and in Europe for Cedefop. Working Futures represents the most comprehensive and detailed set of labour market projections produced in the UK, covering all countries, regions and local areas. The projections also provide sectoral, occupational and qualifications data. IER remains committed to developing projections using the best data and methods available and making the process of forecasting as transparent and straightforward as possible to users.

IER has built up a significant reputation in occupational research, in defining and classifying occupations as well as understanding ways of measuring and monitoring occupational change. This work has been combined with in-depth labour market analysis and the design of socio-economic classification systems and related software developments. IER have been involved in the development of the UK Standard Occupational Classification framework (SOC), namely SOC2000, SOC2010 and SOC2020. IER has wide ranging expertise in methods of coding and has developed coding for statistics for higher education and methods of complex coding.

IER has a long tradition of engaging in research around skills. Our skill anticipation, foresight and assessment research is wide-ranging. It includes an analysis of skills supply and demand at occupational, regional and sectoral levels. Important here is being able to identify skill mismatches and prioritise their importance. This has been an important element of the IER’s research in this area.

More recently, IER has expanded its work in this field to big data analysis and real-time labour market analysis. Work has been piloted within the Department for Education LMI for All service where a vacancy dataset has been developed by scraping and classifying job vacancies. Further work, using various techniques, has focused on classifying data to the SOC2020 extension and identifying green skills. Text mining techniques are also being applied to identifying emerging skill needs in relation to certain technologies at the sectoral level.

Research areas

Labour market and skills forecasting
Labour market assessment and classification
Skill anticipation and assessment
Skill surveys
Skill foresight
Big data analysis
Real-time labour market analysis

Key contacts

Terence Hogarth

Jeisson Cárdenas-Rubio

Core team members

Luke Bosworth
Rosie Day
Peter Elias
David Owen
Chris Warhurst
Rob Wilson

Project websites

LMI for All

Skills2Capabilities

Research tools & services

CASCOT

Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM)

Forecasting services

Blogs

From Automation to Adaptation: Jobs at Risk of Exposure to AI in the UK - Jeisson Cardenas-Rubio and Gianni Anelli-Lopez

Selected recent projects

Horizon Europe - A capabilities approach to meeting current and future training needs; European Commission (2023 - 2025).
Developing a Skills Taxonomy; Department for Education (2023).
Production of the new 2022 Skills Forecast OF1; CEDEFOP (2022 – 2023)
Labour market information and an assessment of its applications ? A series of international case studies; Department for Education (2022)
Green jobs in Scotland? Workforce and demand research; Skills Development Scotland (2022).
Labour market information and an assessment of its applications ? A series of international case studies;
Department for Education (2022).
Provision of data analysis and intelligence on skills and labour marketsLink opens in a new window; CEDEFOP (2014-2022).
Improving skills and careers post Covid - ReWAGE subgroup; Gatsby Charitable Foundation; (2021 - 2022).

Understanding the structural changes in labour supply in the UK post Covid and in the context of Brexit – ReWAGE subgroup; NHS Confederation; (2022).
Labour market and skills demand horizon scanning and qualitative scenarios; Department for Education (2021).

Labour market information and its use to inform the career guidance of young people; The Gatsby Charitable Foundation (2020 – 2021).
Classifying vacancy data at 6-digit level SOC 2020 - A feasibility study; The Gatsby Charitable Foundation (2021)
LMI for All, 2018-2021; Department for Education (2018-2021)
Strategic, Accessible Labour Market Intelligence; Skills Development Scotland (2021).
Skills report for Sheffield City Region; Sheffield City Region (2021).
Production of Skills Supply and Demand Forecasts; CEDEFOP (2016-2020).
Working Futures 2017-2027; Department for Education (2018-2019).

Selected recent publications & downloads

Labour market and skills forecasting

Wilson, R., Bui, H., Bosworth, D., Bosworth, L., Cardenas-Rubio, J., Day, R., Lin, X., Patel, S., Seymour, D and Thoung, C. (2023). Labour market and skills projections: 2020 to 2035: national projections, regional projections, mayoral combined authorities projections, local skills improvement plan areas projections, local enterprise partnerships areas projections.

Anelli, G. (2023). But which skills? : Natural Language Processing tools and the identification of high-demand skills in online job advertisements. Work Organisation, Labour & Globalisation, Volume 17, Issue 2, 17:2, pp. 91-104.

Wilson, R., Hillary, J., Bosworth, D., Bosworth, L., Cardenas-Rubio, J., Day, R., Patel, S., Bui, H., Lin, X., Seymour, D. and Thoung, C. (2022). The Skills Imperative 2035: Occupational Outlook Long-run employment prospects for the UK.- Headline Report. Slough: NFER.

Wilson, R., Bosworth, D., Bosworth, L., Cardenas-Rubio, J., Day, R., Patel, S., Bui, H., Lin, X., Seymour, D., and Thoung, C., (2022). The Skills Imperative 2035: Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Baseline Projections. Working Paper 2a. Slough: NFER

Wilson, R., Bosworth, D., Bosworth, L., Cardenas-Rubio, J., Day, R., Patel, S., Bui, H., Lin, X., Seymour, D., and Thoung, C., (2022). The Skills Imperative 2035: Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Alternative scenarios. Working Paper 2b. Slough: NFER

Wilson, R., Bosworth, D., Bosworth, L., Cardenas-Rubio, J., Day, R., Patel, S., Thoung, C., and Bui, H., (2022). The Skills Imperative 2035: Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK. Working Paper 2c: Technical report on sources and methods. Slough: NFER

Wilson, R. A., Barnes, S-A., May-Gillings, M., Patel, S., & Bui, H. (2020). Working Futures 2017-2027: Long-run labour market and skills projections (Main report) (Research report DFE-RR970). London: Department for Education.

Cedefop (2018) Skills forecast: trends and challenges to 2030. Cedefop reference series 108, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union

Labour market assessment and classification

Barnes, S.A., Hogarth, T., Wright, S., Baldauf, B. and Cárdenas-Rubio, C with Ragnarsdottir, H. and Elmezraoui, W (2023). Labour market information and an assessment of its applications: a series of international case studies. Department for Education.

Cardenas Rubio, J., Warhurst, C and Anderson, P. (2022). Green Jobs in Scotland: An inclusive approach to definition, measurement and analysis. Skills Development Scotland.

Barnes, S-A., Bimrose, J., Cárdenas Rubio, J., Wilson, R., Owen, D., Hogarth, T., Bosworth, L., Day, R., Attwell, G., & Rustemeier, P. (2021). Enhancing a labour market information database: LMI for All Stakeholder Engagement and Usage, Data and Technical Developments (2019-2020)(Research report RR1096). London: Department for Education.

Barnes, S-A., Hogarth, T., Cárdenas-Rubio, J., Wright, S., Hawthorne, M., Bosworth, D., & Bosworth, L. (2021). Strategic, Accessible Labour Market Intelligence: Labour market demand and supply of skills (Report 1). IERUniversity of Warwick/Skills Development Scotland.

Bosworth, D. with Hogarth, T., Cárdenas-Rubio, J., Barnes, S-A., Wright, S., & Bosworth, L. (2021). Strategic, Accessible Labour Market Intelligence: Performance of the labour market (Report 2). IER University of Warwick/Skills Development Scotland.

Barnes, S-A., Bosworth, L., Wright, S., Hawthorne, M., Hogarth, T., Cárdenas Rubio, J. & Bosworth, D. (2021). Strategic, Accessible Labour Market Intelligence: Digital platform (Report 3). IER University of Warwick/Skills Development Scotland.

Hogarth, T. (2021). COVID-19 and the demand for labour and skills in Europe. Early evidence and implications for migration policy. Migration Policy Institute (MPI) Issue brief.

Skill anticipation and assessment, Skill surveys and Skill foresight

Elias, P., Dickerson, A. and Bachelor, N. (2023). A Skills Classification for the UK. Plans for development and maintenance. Department for Education.

Hogarth, T. & Cardenas Rubio, J. (2021). The R&D Pipeline (BEIS Research Paper Number: 2021/22). London: Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).

Hogarth, T. (2018)(ed.) Economy, employment and skills: European, regional and global perspectives in an age of uncertainty. Italy: Quaderni Fondazione Giacomo Brodlini Studi E Ricerche.

Barnes, S-A., Kispeter, E., Eikhof, D., & Parry, R. (2018). Mapping the Museum Digital Skills Ecosystem Phase One Report. Leicester: University of Leicester.

Big data analysis and Real-time labour market analysis

Cardenas-Rubio, J. (2021). Classifying vacancy data at 6-digit level SOC 2020: A feasibility study. Coventry, University of Warwick.

Cárdenas-Rubio, J. (2020). A web-based approach to measure skill mismatches and skills profiles for a developing country: the case of Colombia. Bogotá; D. C.: Editorial Universidad del Rosario.

Warwick Institute for Employment Research