The Institute was a pioneer in the area of labour market assessment and forecasting work in the UK. In various guises, it has been engaged in medium term labour market projections since 1975. Its first detailed employment forecasts were published in Britain’s Medium Term Employment Prospects (1978) and in Economic Change and Employment Policy (1980). Subsequently, the results of the Institute’s annual assessments were made available in the Review of the Economy and Employment with summaries in the Institute’s Bulletin. Since 2002 the Institute has produced forecasts in support of the National Skills Taskforce, with DfES funding and on behalf of the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (and its partners) under the Working Futures banner. The latter represent the most comprehensive and detailed set of labour market projections ever produced in the UK, covering all countries and regions and local LSC areas. The projections also provide considerable sectoral detail, including results for the Sector Skills Councils. The focus is on occupations and qualifications.
The Institute remains at the forefront of employment forecasting, with an international reputation for the quality of its work. The details of the philosophy behind the Institute’s work in this area and the methods used, have always been in the public domain. (See, for example, the Institute’s contributions to Labour Market Forecasts by Occupation and Education: The Forecasting Activities of Three European Labour Market Research Institutes. (1994). Ed. H. Heijke. Massachusetts: Kluwer Academic). The Institute remains committed to developing projections using the best data and methods available and making the process of forecasting as transparent and straightforward as possible to users. It is currently engaged in a major project funded by CEDEFOP to produce consistent employment projections across the whole of Europe.
The production of such forecasts inevitably encourages a demand for greater amounts of detail. The Institute Forecasting Service provides the mechanism by which those who require more detailed information can obtain data customised to their own requirements. A separate document summarises the kind of information that is available.
Methodological Review of Labour Market Forecasting at National and Company Level
The Institute has completed an international review of such research, covering all European countries as well as many others, including the US, Canada and Australia. This has been published under the auspices of CEDEFOP.
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LEFM (Local Economy Forecasting Model)
Download Forecasting Services paper (pdf)
Warwick International Employment and Skills Symposium, held on 29 September 2011