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New UK labour market projections to 2035 released
IER and Cambridge Econometrics have produced new UK labour market and occupational projections to 2035 as part of the Nuffield funded Skills Imperative 2035 Programme led by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER). These projections, led by Professor Rob Wilson, update and extend the Working Futures reports produced just before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Among some of the key finding are:
- Jobs will increase by 0.5% p.a. during 2025-2035, leading to 2.6 million new jobs by 2035, with most of them going to be taken up by women.
- The services sector largely drives job growth to 2035, with jobs in manufacturing continuing to fall. This has significant skills implications for the labour market in 2035.
- The highest job increase is projected to be in the health sector followed by the food and beverages sector. At occupational level the largest job growth to 2035 is expected for professional and associate professional occupations, and at the most detailed occupational level for Careworkers and home carers, Programmers and software development professionals, Higher level teaching assistants, and Nursing auxiliaries and assistants.
- While the greater use of technology in the labour market could lead to up to over two million job losses, projections also suggest this may be ‘broadly offset’ by new job opportunities. Most affected by job losses are likely to be blue collar manual occupations and less skilled white-collar non manual occupations.
- Projections indicate that economically active people will be better qualified by 2035. Those with a postgraduate degree or equivalent will rise from 4.7 million in 2020 to 8.3 million in 2035 and those without a formal qualification drop from 1.4 million in 2020 to 0.8 million in 2035.
The research recommends concerted action to support displaced workers through up- and reskilling and to seize opportunities for economic growth.
Discover more about this research in these reports:
- Occupational Outlook Long-run employment prospects for the UK. Headline Report
- Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Baseline Projections.
- Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Alternative scenarios
- Occupational Outlook - Long-run employment prospects for the UK. Working Paper 2c: Technical report on sources and methods
The reports are co-authored by IER’s Rob Wilson, Derek Bosworth (Honorary Professor), Luke Bosworth, Jeisson Cardenas-Rubio and Rosie Day as well as colleagues from Cambridge Econometrics.