Controlling endemic foot-and-mouth disease: Vaccination is more important than movement bans. A simulation study in the Republic of Turkey
Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Erin E. Gorsich, Chris Jewell, Michael J. Tildesley
In this article we present a spatially-explicit stochastic metapopulation model to simulate the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in an endemic setting. We parameterise and validate the model using detailed outbreak data from the Republic of Turkey, 2001–2012. Subsequently, we assess the efficacy of ring vaccination, mass vaccination, and livestock movement restrictions with regards to incidence-reduction and likelihood of eradication. Our results suggest countries wishing to control the disease within their borders should focus on comprehensive surveillance and vaccination campaigns as their main policy goals. In summary, vaccination-based policies are more effective than movement restrictions in the endemic context.