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Microbiology & Infectious Disease Publications

See our "Latest Publications" page for a full list of SLS publications

Publications from the Cluster

Cutaneous leishmaniasis in British troops following jungle training in Belize: Cumulative incidence and potential risk practices

Rawlings, Ngwa Niba, Bailey, Mark, Craig, Peter, Courtenay, Orin

British soldiers undergoing jungle training in Belize typically experience a relatively low risk of developing cutaneous leishmaniasis. However, an uncharacteristically large outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis occurred in 2022. This study aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of the disease and highlight potential shortcomings in personal protective measures to mitigate exposure to sand fly vector bites. A retrospective analysis was conducted on medical records of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases between 2005 and 2022, as well as on questionnaire responses regarding personal protective measures administered to cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 2022. The reasons behind the unusually high numbers of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases and cumulative incidence in 2022 remain unclear, emphasising the need to improve personal protective measures provision and implement a comprehensive health education programme for troops undergoing jungle training in Belize.

Parasite Epidemiology and Control. November 2024

Emergence of synchronised growth oscillations in filamentous fungi

Praneet Prakash, Xue Jiang , Luke Richards, Zoe Schofield, Patrick Schafer Marco Polin, Orkun S. Soyer & Munehiro Asally

Many species of soil fungi grow in the form of branched networks that enable long-range communication and mass flow of nutrient. While there have been investigations on the branching of the fungal networks, their long-term growth dynamics in space and time is still not very well understood. In this study, we monitor the spatio-temporal growth dynamics of the plant-promoting filamentous fungus Serendipita indica for several days in a controlled environment within a microfluidic chamber. We find that S. indica cells display synchronised growth oscillations with the onset of sporulation and at a period of 3 hours. Quantifying this experimental synchronisation of oscillatory dynamics, we show that the synchronisation can be recapitulated by the nearest neighbour Kuramoto model with a millimetre-scale cell-cell coupling.

Royal Society Interface. October 2024

Complement-mediated killing of Escherichia coli by mechanical destabilization of the cell envelope

Georgina Benn, Christian Bortolini, David M Roberts, Alice L B Pyne, Seamus Holden, Bart W Hoogenboom

Complement proteins eliminate Gram-negative bacteria in the blood via the formation of membrane attack complex (MAC) pores in the outer membrane. However, it remains unclear how outer membrane poration leads to inner membrane permeation and cell lysis. Using atomic force microscopy (AFM) on living Escherichia coli (E. coli), we probed MAC-induced changes in the cell envelope and correlated these with subsequent cell death. We conclude that bacterial cell lysis is only an indirect effect of MAC formation; outer membrane poration leads to mechanical destabilization of the cell envelope, reducing its ability to contain the turgor pressure, leading to inner membrane permeation and cell death.

EMBO Journal. October 2024

Ammonia leakage can underpin nitrogen-sharing among soil microorganisms.

Luke Richards, Kelsey Cremin, Mary Coates, Finley Vigor, Patrick Schäfer, and Orkun S Soyer

Soil microbial communities host a large number of microbial species that support important ecological functions such as biogeochemical cycling and plant nutrition. The extent and stability of these functions are affected by inter-species interactions among soil microorganisms, yet the different mechanisms underpinning microbial interactions in the soil are not fully understood. Here, we study the extent of nutrient-based interactions among two model, plant-supporting soil microorganisms, the fungi Serendipita indica, and the bacteria Bacillus subtilis. Our findings highlight that ammonia based N-sharing can be a previously under-appreciated mechanism underpinning interaction among soil microorganisms and could be influenced by microbial or abiotic alteration of pH in microenvironments.

ISME Journal. September 2024

A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England

Keeling, Matthew James and Dyson, Louise

We discuss the invasion of the Omicron BA.1 variant into England as a paradigm for real-time model fitting and projection. Here we use a mixture of simple SIR-type models, analysis of the early data and a more complex age-structure model fit to the outbreak to understand the dynamics. In particular, we highlight that early data shows that the invading Omicron variant had a substantial growth advantage over the resident Delta variant. However, early data does not allow us to reliably infer other key epidemiological parameters - such as generation time and severity - which influence the expected peak hospital numbers. With more complete epidemic data from January 2022 are we able to capture the true scale of the epidemic in terms of both infections and hospital admissions, driven by different infection characteristics of Omicron compared to Delta and a substantial shift in estimated precautionary behaviour during December. This work highlights the challenges of real time forecasting, in a rapidly changing environment with limited information on the variant’s epidemiological characteristics.

PLoS Computational Biology. September 2024

A Pan Plasmodium lateral flow recombinase polymerase amplification assay for monitoring malaria parasites in vectors and human populations

Matthew Higgins, Mojca Kristan, Emma L. Collins, Louisa A. Messenger, Jamille G. Dombrowski, Leen N. Vanheer, Debbie Nolder, Christopher J. Drakeley, William Stone, Almahamoudou Mahamar, Teun Bousema, Michael Delves, Janvier Bandibabone, Sévérin N’Do, Chimanuka Bantuzeko, Bertin Zawadi, Thomas Walker, Colin J. Sutherland, Claudio R. F. Marinho, Mary M. Cameron, Taane G. Clark & Susana Campino

Malaria caused by neglected Plasmodium parasites is often underestimated due to the lack of rapid diagnostic tools that can accurately detect these species. Here, we present a Pan Plasmodium recombinase polymerase amplification lateral flow (RPA–LF) assay, capable of detecting all six human infecting Plasmodium species in low resource settings.. When combined with crude nucleic acid extraction, the assay can serve as a point-of-need tool for molecular xenomonitoring. This utility was demonstrated by screening laboratory-reared Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes fed with Plasmodium-infected blood, as well as field samples of An. funestus s.l. and An. gambiae s.l. collected from central Africa. Overall, our proof-of-concept Pan Plasmodium diagnostic tool has the potential to be applied for clinical and xenomonitoring field surveillance, and after further evaluation, could become an essential tool to assist malaria control and elimination.

Scientific Reports. August 2024

Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning

de Klerk, Joanna N., Tildesley, Michael J., Labuschagne, Karien and Gorsich, Erin E

Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos) using random forest (RF) machine learning and explore the relative importance of environmental and anthropological factors in a region of South Africa with frequent AHS and BT outbreaks. This study yielded novel insight into the spatial abundance and drivers of abundance of competent vectors of BT and AHS. It also provided valuable data to inform mathematical models exploring disease outbreaks so that Culicoides-transmitted diseases in South Africa can be further analysed.

Parasites & Vectors. August 2024

Self-organization of mortal filaments and its role in bacterial division ring formation

Christian Vanhille-Campos, Kevin D. Whitley, Philipp Radler, Martin Loose, Seamus Holden & Anđela Šarić

Filaments in the cell commonly treadmill. Driven by energy consumption, they grow on one end while shrinking on the other, causing filaments to appear motile even though individual proteins remain static. This process is characteristic of cytoskeletal filaments and leads to collective filament self-organization. Here we show that treadmilling drives filament nematic ordering by dissolving misaligned filaments. Taking the bacterial FtsZ protein involved in cell division as an example, we show that this mechanism aligns FtsZ filaments in vitro and drives the organization of the division ring in living Bacillus subtilis cells. We find that ordering via local dissolution also allows the system to quickly respond to chemical and geometrical biases in the cell, enabling us to quantitatively explain the ring formation dynamics in vivo. Beyond FtsZ and other cytoskeletal filaments, our study identifies a mechanism for self-organization via constant birth and death of energy-consuming filaments.

Nature Physics. August 2024

Acidic polymers reversibly deactivate phages due to pH changes

Huba L. Marton, Antonia P. Sagona, Peter Kilbride and Matthew I. Gibson

Poly(carboxylic acids) have been reported to inhibit phages’ ability to infect their bacterial hosts and hence offer an exciting route to discover additives to prevent infection. Here, we report the role of pH in inactivating phages to determine if the polymers are unique or simply acidic. It is shown that lower pH (= 3) triggered by either acidic polymers or similar changes in pH using HCl lead to inhibition. There is no inhibitory activity at higher pHs (in growth media). It is also shown that poly(acrylic acid) leads to reversible deactivation of phage, but when the pH is adjusted using HCl alone the phage is irreversibly deactivated. Further experiments using metal binders ruled out ion depletion as the mode of action.  These results show that polymeric phage inhibitors may work by unique mechanisms of action and that pH alone cannot explain the observed effects whilst also placing constraints on the practical utility of poly(acrylic acid).

RSC Applied Polymers. August 2024

Matt Keeling publications

Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings

Bouros, Ioana, Hill, Edward M., Keeling, Matt J., Moore, Sam and Thompson, Robin N.


The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations, including older individuals and healthcare workers. Policy makers must now determine how to deploy booster vaccinations, particularly when constraints in vaccine supply, delivery and cost mean that booster vaccines cannot be administered to everyone. A key question is whether older individuals should again be prioritised for vaccination, or whether alternative strategies (e.g. offering booster vaccines to the individuals who have most contacts with others and therefore drive infection) can instead offer indirect protection to older individuals. Here, we use mathematical modelling to address this question, considering SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a range of countries with different socio-economic backgrounds. We show that the population structures of different countries can have a pronounced effect on the impact of booster vaccination, even when identical booster vaccination targeting strategies are adopted. However, under the assumed transmission model, prioritising older individuals for booster vaccination consistently leads to the most favourable public health outcomes in every setting considered. PLoS Computational Biology. August 2024

Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission

Crump, Ronald E., Aliee, Maryam, Sutherland, Samuel A., Huang, Ching-I, Crowley, Emily, Spencer, Simon E. F., Keeling, Matt J., Shampa, Chansy, Mwamba Miaka, Erick and Rock, Kat S.


Sleeping sickness (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, gHAT) is a vector-borne disease targeted for global elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. There are, however, unknowns that have the potential to hinder the achievement and measurement of this goal. These include asymptomatic gHAT infections (inclusive of the potential to self-cure or harbour skin-only infections) and whether gHAT infection in animals can contribute to the transmission cycle in humans. Using modelling, we explore how cryptic (undetected) transmission impacts the monitoring of progress towards and the achievement of the EoT goal. This study is the first to simulate an (as-yet-to-be available) screen-and-treat strategy and found that removing a parasitological confirmation step was predicted to have a more noticeable benefit to transmission reduction under the asymptomatic model compared with the others. Our simulations suggest vector control could greatly impact all transmission routes in all models, although this resource-intensive intervention should be carefully prioritised. Parasites & Vectors. August 2024

Fluorinated trehalose analogues for cell surface engineering and imaging of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Collette S. Guy, James A. Gott, Jonathan Ramírez-Cárdenas, Christopher de Wolf, Christopher M. Furze, Geoff West, Juan C. Muñoz-García, Jesus Angulo and Elizabeth Fullam 

The sensitive, rapid and accurate diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection is a central challenge in controlling the global tuberculosis (TB) pandemic. Yet the detection of mycobacteria is often made difficult by the low sensitivity of current diagnostic tools, with over 3.6 million TB cases missed each year. To overcome these limitations there is an urgent need for next-generation TB diagnostic technologies. Here we report the use of a discrete panel of native 19F-trehalose (F-Tre) analogues to label and directly visualise Mtb by exploiting the uptake of fluorine-modified trehalose analogues via the mycobacterial trehalose LpqY-SugABC ATP-binding cassette (ABC) importer.. This rapid one-step labelling approach facilitates the direct visualisation of F-Tre-labelled Mtb by Focused Ion Beam (FIB) Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS), enabling detection of the Mtb pathogen. Collectively, our findings highlight that F-Tre analogues have potential as tools to probe and unravel Mtb biology and can be exploited to detect and image TB

Chemical Science.August 2024

Structure of the MlaC-MlaD complex reveals molecular basis of periplasmic phospholipid transport

Peter Wotherspoon, Hannah Johnston, David J. Hardy, Rachel Holyfield, Soi Bui, Giedrė Ratkevičiūtė, Pooja Sridhar, Jonathan Colburn, Charlotte B. Wilson, Adam Colyer, Benjamin F. Cooper, Jack A. Bryant, Gareth W. Hughes, Phillip J. Stansfeld, Julien R. C. Bergeron & Timothy J. Knowles

The Maintenance of Lipid Asymmetry (Mla) pathway is a multicomponent system found in all gram-negative bacteria that contributes to virulence, vesicle blebbing and preservation of the outer membrane barrier function. Here, we report the structure of E. coli MlaC in complex with the MlaD hexamer in two distinct stoichiometries. Utilising in vivo complementation assays, an in vitro fluorescence-based transport assay, and molecular dynamics simulations, we confirm key residues, identifying the MlaD β6-β7 loop as essential for MlaCD function. We also provide evidence that phospholipids pass between the C-terminal helices of the MlaD hexamer to reach the central pore, providing insight into the trajectory of GPL transfer between MlaC and MlaD.

Nature Communications. July 2024

SpoIIQ-dependent localization of SpoIIE contributes to septal stability and compartmentalization during the engulfment stage of Bacillus subtilis sporulation

Behzad Dehghani, Christopher D. A. Rodrigues

During spore development in bacteria, a polar septum separates two transcriptionally distinct cellular compartments, the mother cell and the forespore. The conserved serine phosphatase SpoIIE is known for its critical role in the formation of this septum and activation of compartment-specific transcription in the forespore. Signaling between the mother cell and forespore then leads to activation of mother cell transcription and a phagocytic-like process called engulfment, which involves dramatic remodeling of the septum and requires a balance between peptidoglycan synthesis and hydrolysis to ensure septal stability and compartmentalization. Using Bacillus subtilis, we identify an additional role for SpoIIE in maintaining septal stability and compartmentalization at the onset of engulfment. Our data support a model whereby SpoIIE and its interactions with the peptidoglycan synthetic machinery contribute to the stabilization of the asymmetric septum early in engulfment, thereby ensuring compartmentalization during spore development.

Journal of Bacteriology. July 2024

Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements

Michelle Kendall, Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant, Daphne Tsallis, James Petrie, Andrea di Francia, Franceso di Lauro, Lucie Abeler-Dorner, Harrison Manley, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Alice Ledda, Xavier Didelot and Christophe Fraser

Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. Here we present insights obtained using daily data from the NHS COVID-19 app for England and Wales and shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number R(t) was available days earlier than other estimates, with a novel capability to decompose R(t) into contact rates and probabilities of infection. When Omicron arrived, the main epidemic driver switched from contacts to transmissibility. We separate contacts and transmissions by day of exposure and setting, finding pronounced variability over days of the week and during Christmas holidays and events. As an example, during the Euro football tournament in 2021, days with England matches showed sharp spikes in exposures and transmissibility. Digital contact tracing technologies can help control epidemics not only by directly preventing transmissions but also by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecedented resolution.  

Science. July 2024

Membrane potential dynamics unveil the promise of Bioelectrical Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (BeAST) for anti-fungal screening

Tailise Carolina de Souza-Guerreiro, Letícia Huan Bacellar, Thyerre Santana da Costa, Conor LA Edwards, Ljubica Tasic & Munehiro Asally

Membrane potential is a useful marker for antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) due to the fundamental characteristic of vital cells. However, the difficulties associated with measuring the membrane potential in microbes restrict its broad application. In this study, we present Bioelectrical AST (BeAST) using the model fungus Saccharomyces cerevisiae . The results suggest that BeAST holds promise for screening anti-fungal compounds, offering a valuable approach to tackling antimicrobial resistance.

mBio. July 2024

Mike Tildesley publications

When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty

Doyle, Nathan, Cumming, Fergus, Thompson, Robin N. and Tildesley, Michael J.

We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe, we show that African horse sickness virus (AHSV) has a higher peak predicted vectorial capacity than bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). However, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period due to high mortality; therefore, the overall basic reproduction number of AHSV is similar to BTV. Overall, this model can be used to consider both climate and vector control interventions either currently utilised or for potential use in an outbreak, and could help guide policy makers seeking to mitigate the impact of climate change on disease control. PLoS Computational Biology. July 2024

Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission

Emma L Fairbanks, Janet M Daly and Michael J Tildesley


We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe, we show that African horse sickness virus (AHSV) has a higher peak predicted vectorial capacity than bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). However, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period due to high mortality; therefore, the overall basic reproduction number of AHSV is similar to BTV. Overall, this model can be used to consider both climate and vector control interventions either currently utilised or for potential use in an outbreak, and could help guide policy makers seeking to mitigate the impact of climate change on disease control. Viruses. July 2024

Within-Host Viral Growth and Immune Response Rates Predict Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Transmission Dynamics for African Buffalo

Joshua C. Macdonald, Hayriye Gulbudak, Brianna Beechler, Erin E. Gorsich, Simon Gubbins, Eva Pérez-Martin and Anna E. Jolles

We investigated within-host dynamics and among-host transmission of three strains (SAT-1, -2, -3) of foot-and-mouth disease viruses (FMDVs) in their wildlife host, African buffalo. Our data reveals contrasting within-host dynamics among viral strains, with SAT-2 eliciting more rapid and effective immune responses than SAT-1 and SAT-3. Within-host viral fitness was overwhelmingly determined by variation among hosts in immune response activation rates but not by variation among individual hosts in viral growth rate. Our analyses investigating across-scale linkages indicate that viral replication rate in the host correlates with transmission rates among buffalo and that adaptive immune activation rate determines the infectious period. These parameters define the virus’s relative basic reproductive number (ℛ0), suggesting that viral invasion potential may be predictable from within-host dynamics.

American Naturalist. July 2024

Coevolutionary analysis of Pseudomonas syringae–phage interactions to help with rational design of phage treatments

Mojgan Rabiey, Emily R. Grace, Paulina Pawlos, Muscab Bihi, Haleem Ahmed, Georgina E. Hampson, Amna Al Riyami, Leena Alharbi, Rosa Sanchez-Lucas, Naina Korotania, Maria Laura Ciusa, Olivia Mosley, Michelle T. Hulin, Laura Baxter, Sabrine Dhaouadi, Diana Vinchira-Villarraga, Robert W. Jacks

Pseudomonas syringae pathovar syringae (Pss) is a major pathogen of cherry (Prunus avium) causing bacterial canker of the stem, leaf and fruit, impacting productivity and leading to a loss of trees. In an attempt to find a treatment for this disease, naturally occurring bacteriophage (phage) that specifically target Pss is being investigated as a biocontrol strategy. However, before using them as a biocontrol treatment, it is important to both understand their efficacy in reducing the bacterial population and determine if the bacterial pathogens can evolve resistance to evade phage infection. To investigate this, killing curve assays of five MR phages targeting Pss showed that phage resistance rapidly emerges in vitro, even when using a cocktail of the five phages together. This study shows that understanding the genetic mechanisms of bacterial pathogen resistance to phages is important for helping to design a more effective approach to kill the bacteria while minimizing the opportunity for phage resistance to manifest.

Microbial Biotechnology. June 20204

Ancient genomes reveal insights into ritual life at Chichén Itzá

Rodrigo Barquera, Oana Del Castillo-Chávez, Kathrin Nägele, Patxi Pérez-Ramallo, Diana Iraíz Hernández-Zaragoza, András Szolek, Adam Benjamin Rohrlach, Pablo Librado, Ainash Childebayeva, Raffaela Angelina Bianco, Bridget S. Penman, Victor Acuña-Alonzo, Mary Lucas, Julio César Lara-Riegos, María Ermila Moo-Mezeta, Julio César Torres-Romero, Patrick Roberts, Oliver Kohlbacher, Christina Warinner & Johannes Krause

Here we present genome-wide data obtained from 64 subadult individuals dating to around AD 500-900 that were found in a subterranean mass burial near the Sacred Cenote (sinkhole) in the ceremonial centre of Chichén Itzá. Genetic analyses showed that all analysed individuals were male and several individuals were closely related, including two pairs of monozygotic twins. Twins feature prominently in Mayan and broader Mesoamerican mythology, where they embody qualities of duality among deities and heroes, but until now they had not been identified in ancient Mayan mortuary contexts. Genetic comparison to present-day people in the region shows genetic continuity with the ancient inhabitants of Chichén Itzá, except at certain genetic loci related to human immunity, including the human leukocyte antigen complex, suggesting signals of adaptation due to infectious diseases introduced to the region during the colonial period. Nature. June 2024

A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe : a modelling study

Carvalho, Bruno M., Maia, Carla, Courtenay, Orin, Llabrés-Brustenga, Alba, Lotto Batista, Martín, Moirano, Giovenale, van Daalen, Kim R., Semenza, Jan C. and Lowe, Rachel

Leishmaniases are neglected diseases transmitted by sand flies. The aim of this modelling study was to develop an indicator that tracks climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum transmission in Europe at the subnational level. Historical records of sand fly vectors, human leishmaniasis, bioclimatic indicators, and environmental variables were integrated in a machine learning framework (XGBoost) to predict suitability in two past periods (2001–2010 and 2011–2020. This study demonstrates how key epidemiological data can be combined with open-source climatic and environmental information to develop an indicator that effectively tracks spatiotemporal changes in climatic suitability and disease risk. The positive association between the model predictions and human disease incidence demonstrates that this indicator could help target leishmaniasis surveillance to transmission hotspots.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe. June 2024

Molecular motor tug-of-war regulates elongasome cell wall synthesis dynamics in Bacillus subtilis

Stuart Middlemiss, Matthieu Blandenet, David M. Roberts, Andrew McMahon, James Grimshaw, Joshua M. Edwards, Zikai Sun, Kevin D. Whitley, Thierry Blu, Henrik Strahl & Seamus Holden

Most rod-shaped bacteria elongate by inserting new cell wall material into the inner surface of the cell sidewall. This is performed by class A penicillin binding proteins (PBPs) and a highly conserved protein complex, the elongasome, which moves processively around the cell circumference and inserts long glycan strands that act as barrel-hoop-like reinforcing structures, thereby giving rise to a rod-shaped cell. However, it remains unclear how elongasome synthesis dynamics and termination events are regulated to determine the length of these critical cell-reinforcing structures. To address this, we developed a method to track individual elongasome complexes around the entire circumference of Bacillus subtilis cells for minutes-long periods using single-molecule fluorescence microscopy. Our results demonstrate that molecular motor tug-of-war is a key regulator of elongasome dynamics in B. subtilis, which likely also regulates the cell shape via modulation of elongasome processivity.

Nature Communications. June 2024

Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England

Harrison Manley,Thomas Bayley,Gabriel Danelian, Lucy Burton, Thomas Finnie, Andre Charlett, Nicholas A. Watkins, Paul Birrell, Daniela De Angelis, Matt Keeling, Sebastian Funk, Graham Medley, Lorenzo Pellis, Marc Baguelin, Graeme J. Ackland, Johanna Hutchinson, Steven Riley and Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

Mathematical modelling has played an important role in offering informed advice during the COVID-19 pandemic. In England, a cross government and academia collaboration generated medium-term projections (MTPs) of possible epidemic trajectories over the future 4–6 weeks from a collection of epidemiological models. In this article, we outline this collaborative modelling approach and evaluate the accuracy of the combined and individual model projections against the data over the period Learning from our experience of ensemble modelling during the COVID-19 epidemic, our findings highlight the importance of developing cross-institutional multi-model infectious disease hubs for future outbreak control.

Royal Society Open Science. May 2024

Mitochondrial and microbial diversity of the invasive mosquito vector species Culex tritaeniorhynchus across its extensive inter-continental geographic range

Claire L. Jeffries, Luciano M Tantely, Perparim Kadriaj, Marcus S C Blagrove, Ioanna Lytra, James Orsborne, Hasan Mohammad Al-Amin, Abdul Rahim Mohammed, Mohammad Shafiul Alam, Romain Girod, Yaw A Afrane, Silvia Bino, Vincent Robert, Sebastien Boyer, Matthew Baylis, Enkelejda Velo, Grant L Hughes, Thomas Walker

In this study, we used laboratory vector competence experiments to determine if Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from a Southern European population were competent JEV vectors. We obtained samples from multiple geographically dispersed Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations from countries within Europe, Africa, Eurasia and Asia to perform phylogenetic analysis to measure the level of mitochondrial divergence using the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) gene. We also undertook bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to determine microbial diversity and used multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) to determine any evidence for the presence of strains of the naturally occurring endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from a Greek population were shown be be competent vectors of JEV with high levels of virus present in saliva. We found a signficant level of mitochondrial genetic diversity using the mosquito CO1 gene between geographically dispersed populations. Furthermore, we report diverse microbiomes identified by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing within and between geographical populations. Evidence for the detection of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia was confirmed using Wolbachia-specific PCR and MLST.

Wellcome Open Research. May 2024

Membraneless channels sieve cations in ammonia-oxidizing marine archaea

Andriko von Kügelgen, C. Keith Cassidy, Sofie van Dorst, Lennart L. Pagani, Christopher Batters, Zephyr Ford, Jan Löwe, Vikram Alva, Phillip J. Stansfeld & Tanmay A. M. Bharat

Nitrosopumilus maritimus is an ammonia-oxidizing archaeon that is crucial to the global nitrogen cycle. A critical step for nitrogen oxidation is the entrapment of ammonium ions from a dilute marine environment at the cell surface and their subsequent channelling to the cell membrane of N. maritimus. Here we elucidate the structure of the molecular machinery responsible for this process, comprising the surface layer (S-layer), using electron cryotomography and subtomogram averaging from cells. We supplemented our in situ structure of the ammonium-binding S-layer array with a single-particle electron cryomicroscopy structure, revealing detailed features of this immunoglobulin-rich and glycan-decorated S-layer. This in situ structural study illuminates the biogeochemically essential process of ammonium binding and channelling, common to many marine microorganisms that are fundamental to the nitrogen cycle.

Nature. May 2024

Xavier Didelot publications

Presence of phage-plasmids in multiple serovars of Salmonella enterica

Satheesh Nair​, Clare R. Barker​, Matthew Bird​, David R. Greig​, Caitlin Collins, Anaïs Painset​Marie Chattaway​, Derek Pickard​, Lesley Larkin​, Saheer Gharbia,​ Xavier Didelot​ and Paolo Ribeca

Evidence is accumulating in the literature that the horizontal spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes mediated by bacteriophages and bacteriophage-like plasmid (phage-plasmid) elements is much more common than previously envisioned. For instance, we recently identified and characterized a circular P1-like phage-plasmid harbouring a blaCTX-M-15 gene conferring extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) resistance in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. As the prevalence and epidemiological relevance of such mechanisms has never been systematically assessed in Enterobacterales, in this study we carried out a follow-up retrospective analysis of UK Salmonella isolates previously sequenced as part of routine surveillance protocols between 2016 and 2021. In addition to providing a first comprehensive view of the presence of phage-plasmids in Salmonella, our work highlights the need for a better surveillance and understanding of phage-plasmids as AMR carriers, especially through their characterization with long-read sequencing. Microbial Genomics. May 2024

Rapid expansion and international spread of M1UK in the post-pandemic UK upsurge of Streptococcus pyogenes

Ana Vieira et al inc. Xavier Didelot


The UK observed a marked increase in scarlet fever and invasive group A streptococcal infection in 2022 with severe outcomes in children and similar trends worldwide. Here we report lineage M1UK to be the dominant source of invasive infections in this upsurge. Compared with ancestral M1global strains, invasive M1UK strains exhibit reduced genomic diversity and fewer mutations in two-component regulator genes covRS. The emergence of M1UK is dated to 2008. Following a bottleneck coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, three emergent M1UK clades underwent rapid nationwide expansion, despite lack of detection in previous years. All M1UK isolates thus-far sequenced globally have a phylogenetic origin in the UK, with dispersal of the new clades in Europe. While waning immunity may promote streptococcal epidemics, the genetic features of M1UK point to a fitness advantage in pathogenicity, and a striking ability to persist through population bottlenecks. Nature Communications. May 2024

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Vasconcelos, Andreia, King, Jonathan D., Nunes-Alves, Cláudio, Anderson, Roy, Argaw, Daniel, Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Bilal, Shakir, Blok, David J., Blumberg, Seth, Borlase, Anna, Brady, Oliver J., Browning, Raiha, Chitnis, Nakul, Coffeng, Luc E., Crowley, Emily H, Cucunubá, Zulma M., Cummings, Derek A. T., Davis, Christopher N., Davis, Emma L., Dixon, Matthew, Dobson, Andrew, Dyson, Louise et al

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021–2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Clinical Infectious Diseases. May 2024

Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression

Susie Cant, G. Dennis Shanks, Matt J. Keeling and Bridget S. Penman

In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles pidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. MeHere, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

Epidemiology & Infection. May 2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Kim R van Daalen et al incl. Orin Courtenay

The Lancet Countdown in Europe was established in 2021, to assess the health profile of climate change aiming to stimulate European social and political will to implement rapid health-responsive climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In 2022, the collaboration published its indicator report, tracking progress on health and climate change via 33 indicators and across five domains. This new report tracks 42 indicators highlighting the negative impacts of climate change on human health, the delayed climate action of European countries, and the missed opportunities to protect or improve health with health-responsive climate action. Considering that negative climate-related health impacts and the responsibility for climate change are not equal at the regional and global levels, this report also endeavours to reflect on aspects of inequality and justice by highlighting at-risk groups within Europe and Europe's responsibility for the climate crisis.

Lancet Public Heath. May 2024

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens : a mathematical modelling investigation

Asplin, Phoebe, Keeling, Matt J., Mancy, Rebecca and Hill, Edward M.

We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens—seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2—we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

PLoS Computational Biology. May 2024

Unveiling novel Neocosmospora species from Thai mangroves as potent biocontrol agents against Colletotrichum species

Klomchit, A, Calabon, MS, Worabandit, S, Weaver, JA, Karima, EM, Alberti, F, Greco, C and Mahanil, S

This study aims to investigate the taxonomy, biosynthetic potential, and application of three newly isolated Neocosmospora species from mangrove habitats in the southern part of Thailand using phylogeny, bioactivity screening, genome sequencing, and bioinformatics analysis.

Two fungal isolates of Neocosmospora and a new species of N. mangrovei were reported in this study. These fungal strains showed activity against pathogenic fungi causing anthracnose in chili. In addition, full genome sequencing and bioinformatics analysis of N. mangrovei MFLUCC 17–0253 were obtained.

Journal of Applied Microbiology. May 2024

A distinct, high affinity, alkaline phosphatase facilitates occupation of P-depleted environments by marine picocyanobacteria

Alberto Torcello-Requena, Andrew Murphy, Ian D. E. A. Lidbury, Frances D. Pitt, Richard Stark, Andrew D. Millard, Richard J. Puxty, Yin Chen, David J. Scanlan

Marine picocyanobacteria of the genera Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, the two most abundant phototrophs on Earth, thrive in oligotrophic oceanic regions. While it is well known that specific lineages are exquisitely adapted to prevailing in situ light and temperature regimes, much less is known of the molecular machinery required to facilitate occupancy of these low-nutrient environments. Here, we describe a hitherto unknown alkaline phosphatase, Psip1, that has a substantially higher affinity for phosphomonoesters than other well-known phosphatases like PhoA, PhoX, or PhoD and is restricted to clade III Synechococcus and a subset of high light I-adapted Prochlorococcus strains, suggesting niche specificity.

PNAS. May 2024

RecGraph: recombination-aware alignment of sequences to variation graphs

Jorge Avila Cartes, Paola Bonizzoni, Simone Ciccolella, Gianluca Della Vedova, Luca Denti, Xavier Didelot, Davide Monti, Yuri Pirola

In this paper, we present the extension of the notion of sequence-to-graph alignment to a variation graph that incorporates a recombination, so that the latter are explicitly represented and evaluated in an alignment. Moreover, we present a dynamic programming approach for the special case where there is at most a recombination—we implement this case as RecGraph. From a modelling point of view, a recombination corresponds to identifying a new path of the variation graph, where the new arc is composed of two halves, each extracted from an original path, possibly joined by a new arc. Our experiments show that RecGraph accurately aligns simulated recombinant bacterial sequences that have at most a recombination, providing evidence for the presence of recombination events. 

Bioinformatics. April 2024

Imaging Single-Cell Ca2+ Dynamics of Brainstem Neurons and Glia in Freely Behaving Mice

Amol M. Bhandare, Nicholas Dale, Robert T. R. Huckstepp

In vivo brain imaging, using a combination of genetically encoded Ca2+ indicators and gradient refractive index (GRIN) lens, is a transformative technology that has become an increasingly potent research tool over the last decade. We have refined the intravital imaging technique to image deep brain nuclei in the ventral medulla oblongata, one of the most difficult brain structures to image due to the movement of brainstem structures outside the cranial cavity during free behaviour (head and neck movement), whose targeting requires GRIN lens insertion through the cerebellum—a key structure for balance and movement. Our protocol refines the implantation method of GRIN lenses, giving the best possible approach to image deep extracranial brainstem structures in awake rodents with improved cell rejection/acceptance criteria during analysis. This revised method paves the way to image challenging brainstem structures to investigate their role in complex behaviours such as breathing, circulation, sleep, digestion, and swallowing, and could be extended to image and study the role of cerebellum in balance, movement, motor learning, and beyond.

Bio-protocol. April 2024

Xavier Didelot publications

Epistasis, core-genome disharmony, and adaptation in recombining bacteria

Aidan J. Taylor, Koji Yahara, Ben Pascoe, Seungwon Ko, Leonardos Mageiros, Evangelos Mourkas, Jessica K. Calland, Santeri Puranen, Matthew D. Hitchings, Keith A. Jolley, Carolin M. Kobras, Sion Bayliss, Nicola J. Williams, Arnoud H. M. van Vliet, Julian Parkhill, Martin C. J. Maiden, Jukka Corander, Laurence D. Hurst, Daniel Falush, Paul Keim, Xavier Didelot, David J. Kelly, Samuel K. Sheppard

Recombination of short DNA fragments via horizontal gene transfer (HGT) can introduce beneficial alleles, create genomic disharmony through negative epistasis, and create adaptive gene combinations through positive epistasis. For non-core (accessory) genes, the negative epistatic cost is likely to be minimal because the incoming genes have not co-evolved with the recipient genome and are frequently observed as tightly linked cassettes with major effects. By contrast, interspecific recombination in the core genome is expected to be rare because disruptive allelic replacement is likely to introduce negative epistasis. Why then is homologous recombination common in the core of bacterial genomes? To understand this enigma, we take advantage of an exceptional model system, the common enteric pathogens Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli that are known for very high magnitude interspecies gene flow in the core genome. As expected, HGT does indeed disrupt co-adapted allele pairings, indirect evidence of negative epistasis. However, multiple HGT events enable recovery of the genome's co-adaption between introgressing alleles, even in core metabolism genes (e.g., formate dehydrogenase). These findings demonstrate that, even for complex traits, genetic coalitions can be decoupled, transferred, and independently reinstated in a new genetic background-facilitating transition between fitness peaks. mBio. April 2024

KmerAperture: Retaining k-mer synteny for alignment-free extraction of core and accessory differences between bacterial genomes

Matthew P. Moore, Mirjam Laager,Paolo Ribeca, Xavier Didelot

By decomposing genome sequences into k-mers, it is possible to estimate genome differences without alignment. Techniques such as k-mer minimisers, for example MinHash, have been developed and are often accurate approximations of distances based on full k-mer sets. These and other alignment-free methods avoid the large temporal and computational expense of alignment. However, these k-mer set comparisons are not entirely accurate within-species and can be completely inaccurate within-lineage. This is due, in part, to their inability to distinguish core polymorphism from accessory differences. Here we present a new approach, KmerAperture, which uses information on the k-mer relative genomic positions to determine the type of polymorphism causing differences in k-mer presence and absence between pairs of genomes. We show that KmerAperture can accurately distinguish both core and accessory sequence diversity without alignment, outperforming other k-mer based tools.

PLos Genetics.; April 2024

Detection of membrane fission in single Bacillus subtilis cells during endospore formation with high temporal resolution

Ane Landajuela, Martha Braun, Christopher D.A. Rodrigues, Erdem Karatekin

Membrane fission is an essential process in all domains of life. The underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood in bacteria, partly because suitable assays are lacking. Here, we describe an assay to detect membrane fission during endospore formation in single Bacillus subtilis cells with a temporal resolution of ∼1 min. Other cellular processes can be quantified and temporally aligned to the membrane fission event in individual cells, revealing correlations and causal relationships.

STAR Protocols. March 2024

Coordinated transcriptional response to environmental stress by a Synechococcus virus

Branko Rihtman, Alberto Torcello-Requena, Alvetina Mikhaylina, Richard J Puxty, Martha RJ Clokie, Andrew D Millard, David J Scanlan

Phosphorus (P) is a major abiotic control on the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus. Some viruses infecting Synechococcus have acquired, from their host, a gene encoding a P substrate binding protein (PstS), thought to improve virus replication under phosphate starvation. Yet, pstS is uncommon amongst cyanobacterial viruses. Thus, we asked how infections with viruses lacking PstS are affected by P scarcity. We show that production of infectious virus particles of such viruses is reduced in low P conditions. Our data shows how phage genomes, lacking obvious P-stress related genes, have evolved to exploit their host’s environmental sensing mechanisms to coordinate their own gene expression in response to resource limitation.

ISME Journal. March 2024

Postintervention Immunological and Entomological Survey of Lymphatic Filariasis in the City of Olinda, Brazil, 2015-2016

Anita Ramesh, Paula Oliveira, Mary Cameron, Priscila M S Castanha, Thomas Walker, Audrey Lenhart, Lucy Impoinvil, Neal Alexander, Zulma Medeiros, André Sá, Abraham Rocha, Wayner V Souza, Amélia Maciel, Cynthia Braga

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a leading cause of disability due to infectious disease worldwide. The Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR) is the only remaining focus of LF in Brazil, where the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti is transmitted solely by the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. This study reports the results of transmission assessment surveys and molecular xenomonitoring in the city of Olinda, RMR, after nearly 15 years (2015-2016) of interventions for LF elimination. Participants were screened for W. bancrofti antigen via immunochromatographic card tests (ICT), and all 1,170 children from MDA areas and the entire population sample of 990 residents in non-MDA areas were ICT negative. In MDA areas, a total of 3,152 female Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in 277 households were collected via aspiration. RT-qPCR of 233 pools of mosquitos were negative for W. bancrofti RNA; an independent reference laboratory confirmed these results. These results provide evidence that LF transmission has been halted in this setting.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene. March 2024

Unveiling the potential of Daldinia eschscholtzii MFLUCC 19-0629 through bioactivity and bioinformatics studies for enhanced sustainable agriculture production

Brooks S, Weaver JA, Klomchit A, Alharthi SA, Onlamun T, Nurani R, Vong TK, Alberti F and Greco C

Endophytic fungi constitute a rich source of secondary metabolites that can be manipulated to produce desirable novel analogs for combating current agricultural challenges for crop production, especially controlling plant disease. The endophytic fungus Daldinia eschscholtzii MFLUCC 19-0629, was newly isolated from tropical ancient plants, Oncosperma sp., and displays a broad-spectrum of antifungal and antibacterial activities against several plant pathogens. The discovery that D. eschscholtzii MFLUCC 19-0629 has a broad spectrum of antimicrobial activity against seven major plant pathogenic microorganisms relevant to crop production and its complete genome sequence carries immense importance in the advancement of novel microbial biocontrol agents (MBCAs). This also unveils the prospect of uncovering new compounds that could be utilized for sustainable agriculture and pharmaceutical purposes.

Frontiers in Chemical Biology. March 2024

Peptidoglycan synthesis drives a single population of septal cell wall synthases during division in Bacillus subtilis

Kevin D. Whitley, James Grimshaw, David M. Roberts, Eleni Karinou, Phillip J. Stansfeld & Seamus Holden

Bacterial cell division requires septal peptidoglycan (sPG) synthesis by the divisome complex. Treadmilling of the essential tubulin homologue FtsZ has been implicated in septal constriction, though its precise role remains unclear. Here we used live-cell single-molecule imaging of the divisome transpeptidase PBP2B to investigate sPG synthesis dynamics in Bacillus subtilis. In contrast to previous models, we observed a single population of processively moving PBP2B molecules whose motion is driven by peptidoglycan synthesis and is not associated with FtsZ treadmilling. However, despite the asynchronous motions of PBP2B and FtsZ, a partial dependence of PBP2B processivity on FtsZ treadmilling was observed. Additionally, through single-molecule counting experiments we provide evidence that the divisome synthesis complex is multimeric. Our results support a model for B. subtilis division where a multimeric synthesis complex follows a single track dependent on sPG synthesis whose activity and dynamics are asynchronous with FtsZ treadmilling.

Nature Microbiology. March 2024

Detection of a historic reservoir of bedaquiline/clofazimine resistance-associated variants in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Camus Nimmo, Arturo Torres Ortiz, Cedric C. S. Tan, Juanita Pang, Mislav Acman, James Millard, Nesri Padayatchi, Alison D. Grant, Max O’Donnell, Alex Pym, Ola B. Brynildsrud, Vegard Eldholm, Louis Grandjean, Xavier Didelot, François Balloux & Lucy van Dorp

Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by off-target resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the mmpR5 gene (Rv0678), the regulator of an efflux pump, which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug. We compiled a dataset of 3682 Mtb genomes, including 180 carrying variants in mmpR5, and its immediate background (i.e. mmpR5 promoter and adjacent mmpL5 gene), that have been associated to borderline (henceforth intermediate) or confirmed resistance to bedaquiline. We characterised the occurrence of all nonsynonymous mutations in mmpR5 in this dataset and estimated, using time-resolved phylogenetic methods, the age of their emergence.

Genome Medicine. February 2024

The long and short of it: benchmarking viromics using Illumina, Nanopore and PacBio sequencing technologies

Ryan Cook​, Nathan Brown​, Branko Rihtman​, Slawomir Michniewski​, Tamsin Redgwell, Martha Clokie​, Dov J. Stekel, Yin Chen​, David J. Scanlan​, Jon L. Hobman, Andrew Nelson​, Michael A. Jones​, Darren Smith​ and Andrew Millard

ecology. Long-read sequencing and hybrid assembly approaches that combine long- and short-read technologies are now being widely implemented in bacterial genomics and metagenomics. However, the use of long-read sequencing to investigate viral communities is still in its infancy. While Nanopore and PacBio technologies have been applied to viral metagenomics, it is not known to what extent different technologies will impact the reconstruction of the viral community. Thus, we constructed a mock bacteriophage community of previously sequenced phage genomes and sequenced them using Illumina, Nanopore and PacBio sequencing technologies and tested a number of different assembly approaches. Overall the best approach was assembly by a combination of Illumina and Nanopore reads, which reduced error rates to levels comparable with short-read-only assemblies. When using a single technology, Illumina only was the best approach. These findings will provide a starting point for others in the choice of reads and assembly algorithms for the analysis of viromes.

Microbial Genomics. February 2024

Liver sinusoidal cells eliminate blood-borne phage K1F

Javier Sánchez Romano, Jaione Simón-Santamaria, Peter McCourt, Bård Smedsrød, Kim Erlend Mortensen, Antonia P. Sagona, Karen Kristine Sørensen, Anett Kristin Larsen

Blood-borne phages are believed to be captured by macrophages in the liver and spleen. Since liver sinusoids also consist of specialized scavenger liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSECs) and Kupffer cells (KCs), this study investigated the contribution of both cell types in the elimination of Escherichia coli phage K1Fg10b::gfp (K1Fgfp) in mice. The results presented herein contribute to increased knowledge about the pharmacokinetics of the T7-like phage K1F in the mammalian system. The cell types of the liver that are responsible for rapid phage blood clearance are identified. Our results highlight the need for more research about appropriate dose regimens when phage therapy is delivered intravenously and advise essential knowledge about cell systems that should be investigated further for detailed phage pharmacodynamics.

mSphere. February 2024

First archaeological evidence for ginger consumption as a potential medicinal ingredient in a late medieval leprosarium at St Leonard, Peterborough, England

Elena Fiorin, Charlotte A. Roberts, Marica Baldoni, Erin Connelly, Christina Lee, Claudio Ottoni & Emanuela Cristiani

Leprosy was one of the most outwardly visible diseases in the European Middle Ages, a period during which leprosaria were founded to provide space for the sick. In the present study, microremains and DNA were analysed from the calculus of individuals buried in the late medieval cemetery of St Leonard, a leprosarium located in Peterborough, England. The results show the presence of ginger (Zingiber officinale), a culinary and medicinal ingredient, as well as evidence of consumption of cereals and legumes. This research suggests that affected individuals consumed ingredients mentioned in medieval medical textbooks that were used to treat regions of the body typically impacted by leprosy. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study which has identified Zingiber officinale in human dental calculus in England or on the wider European continent.

Scientific Reports. January 2024

Xavier Didelot publications

Integrated analysis of patient networks and plasmid genomes reveals a regional, multi-species outbreak of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales carrying both blaIMP and mcr-9 genes

Y Wan, AC Myall, A Boonyasiri, F Bolt, A Ledda, S Mookerjee, AY Weiße, M Getino, JF Turton, H Abbas, R Prakapaite, A Sabnis, A Abdolrasouli, K Malpartida-Cardenas, L Miglietta, H Donaldson, M Gilchrist, KL Hopkins, MJ Ellington, JA Otter, G Larrouy-Maumus, M Edwards, J Rodriguez-Manzano, X Didelot, M Barahona, AH Holmes, E Jauneikaite, F Davies

Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) are challenging in healthcare, with resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics. This study describes the emergence of IMP-encoding CPE amongst diverse Enterobacterales species between 2016 and 2019 across a London regional network. Our patient network and plasmid analyses demonstrate an interspecies, plasmid-mediated outbreak of blaIMPCPE, which remained unidentified during standard investigations. With DNA sequencing and multi-modal data incorporation, the outbreak investigation approach proposed here provides a framework for real-time identification of key factors causing pathogen spread. Plasmid-level outbreak analysis reveals that resistance spread may be wider than suspected, allowing more interventions to stop transmission within hospital networks.

Journal of Infectious Diseases. January 2024

Genomic epidemiology of the clinically dominant clonal complex 1 in the Listeria monocytogenes population in the UK

Emily T. Fotopoulou​, Claire Jenkins, Clare R. Barker​, Anais Painset​, Xavier Didelot​, Ameze Simbo​, Amy Douglas​, Gauri Godbole​, Frieda Jorgensen​, Saheer Gharbia​, Jim McLauchlin

Listeria monocytogenes is a food-borne pathogen, typically affecting the elderly, immunocompromised patients and pregnant women. The aim of this study was to determine the population structure of L. monocytogenes clonal complex 1 (CC1) in the UK and describe the genomic epidemiology of this clinically significant CC. We interrogated a working dataset of 4073 sequences of L. monocytogenes isolated between January 2015 and December 2020 from human clinical specimens, food and/or foodproduction environments. Analysis of demographic and clinical outcome data identified CC1 as a clinically significant cause of invasive listeriosis in the elderly population and in women of child-bearing age. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the population structure of CC1 in the UK comprised small, sparsely populated genomic clusters. Only clusters containing isolates from an implicated food vehicle, or food processing or farming environments, were resolved, emphasizing the need for clinical, food and animal-health agencies to share sequencing data in real time, and the importance of a One Health approach to public-health surveillance of listeriosis.

Microbial Genomics. January 2024

Temporal changes in the positivity rate of common enteric viruses among paediatric admissions in coastal Kenya, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019-2022

Arnold W. Lambisia, Nickson Murunga, Martin Mutunga, Robinson Cheruiyot, Grace Maina, Timothy O. Makori, D. James Nokes and Charles N. Agoti

The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to curb the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, substantially disrupted the activity of other respiratory viruses. However, there is limited data from low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) to determine whether these NPIs also impacted the transmission of common enteric viruses. Here, we investigated the changes in the positivity rate of five enteric viruses among hospitalised children who presented with diarrhoea to a referral hospital in coastal Kenya, during COVID-19 pandemic period. Our study finds that in 2020 the transmission of common enteric viruses, especially RVA and astrovirus, in Kilifi Kenya may have been disrupted due to the COVID-19 NPIs. After 2020, local enteric virus transmission patterns appeared to return to pre-pandemic levels coinciding with the removal of most of the government COVID-19 NPIs.

Gut Pathogens. January 2024

Inference of infectious disease transmission through a relaxed bottleneck using multiple genomes per host

Jake Carson, Matt Keeling, David Wyllie, Paolo Ribeca, Xavier Didelot

Here we present a new methodology that can use any number of genomes sampled from a set of individuals to reconstruct their transmission network. Furthermore, we remove the need for the assumption of a complete transmission bottleneck. We use simulated data to show that our method becomes more accurate as more genomes per host are provided, and that it can infer key infectious disease parameters such as the size of the transmission bottleneck, within-host growth rate, basic reproduction number and sampling fraction. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method in applications to real datasets from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa amongst cystic fibrosis patients and a nosocomial outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Molecular Biology & Evolution. January 2024

Rapid diversification of grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) driven by geographic isolation and extreme environmental conditions in the Arabian Peninsula

Guillermo Friis, Edward G. Smith, Catherine E. Lovelock, Alejandra Ortega, Alyssa Marshell, Carlos M. Duarte, John A. Burt

Biological systems occurring in ecologically heterogeneous and spatially discontinuous habitats provide an ideal opportunity to investigate the relative roles of neutral and selective factors in driving lineage diversification. The grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) of Arabia occur at the northern edge of the species' range and are subject to variable, often extreme, environmental conditions, as well as historic large fluctuations in habitat availability and connectivity resulting from Quaternary glacial cycles. Here, we analyse fully sequenced genomes sampled from 19 locations across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the species in the region and to identify adaptive mechanisms of lineage diversification. Our results support a process of rapid diversification resulting from the combined effects of historical factors and ecological selection and reveal mangrove peripheral environments as relevant drivers of lineage diversity.

Molecular Ecology. January 2024

Identification of dynamical changes of rabies transmission under quarantine : community-based measures towards rabies elimination

Rysava, Kristyna and Tildesley, Michael J

Here, we present a quantitative framework using a series of progressively more biologically realistic models of canine rabies in domestic dogs and from dogs to humans, a suitable example system to characterize dynamical changes under varying levels of dog quarantine. We explicitly incorporate health-seeking behaviour data to inform the modelling of contact-tracing and exclusion of rabies suspect and probable dogs that can be identified through bite-histories of patients presenting at anti-rabies clinics. We find that a temporary quarantine of rabies suspect and probable dogs provides a powerful tool to curtail rabies transmission, especially in settings where optimal vaccination coverage is yet to be achieved, providing a critical stopgap to reduce the number of human and animal deaths due to rabid bites.

PLoS Computational Biology. December 2023

Screening of Hydrophilic Polymers Reveals Broad Activity in 2 Protecting Phages during Cryopreservation

Huba L Marton, Apoorva Bhatt, Antonia P Sagona, Peter Kilbride, Matthew I Gibson

Bacteriophages have many biotechnological and therapeutic applications, but as with other biologics, cryopreservation is essential for storage and distribution. Macromolecular cryoprotectants are emerging for a range of biologics, but the chemical space for polymer-mediated phage cryopreservation has not been explored. Here we screen the cryoprotective effect of a panel of polymers against five distinct phages, showing that nearly all the tested polymers provide a benefit. This work shows that phages are amenable to protection with hydrophilic polymers and opens up new opportunities for advanced formulations for future phage therapies and to take advantage of the additional functionality brought by the polymers.

Biomacromolecules. December 2023

Biophysical basis of filamentous phage tactoid-mediated antibiotic tolerance in P. aeruginosa

Jan Böhning, Miles Graham, Suzanne C. Letham, Luke K. Davis, Ulrike Schulze, Phillip J. Stansfeld, Robin A. Corey, Philip Pearce, Abul K. Tarafder, Tanmay A. M. Bharat

Inoviruses are filamentous phages infecting numerous prokaryotic phyla. Inoviruses can self-assemble into mesoscale structures with liquid-crystalline order, termed tactoids, which protect bacterial cells in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms from antibiotics. Here, we investigate the structural, biophysical, and protective properties of tactoids formed by the P. aeruginosa phage Pf4 and Escherichia coli phage fd. This study provides insights into how filamentous molecules protect bacteria from extraneous substances in biofilms and in host-associated infections.

Nature Communications. December 2023