Political Economy and Public Economics

Title: Oil-Market News and U.S. House Prices: Evidence from OPEC Announcements

Title: Postnatal Depression: Awareness, Stigma, and Help-Seeking

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Title: Publishing pedagogical research on innovations in teaching

Professor W David McCausland, Head of Economics at the University of Aberdeen Business School, Associate of the Economics Network and Editor-in-chief of the International Review of Economics Education (IREE), will address the following key questions faced by those wishing to publish in pedagogic journals: What are journals looking for; Tips for getting published; Current topics of interest; Other publications avenues; and Motivations for publication. It will be of particular interest to those on teaching and scholarship contracts looking to publish their pedagogic research

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Title: The Anatomy of Censorship and Propaganda: Evidence from Russian Wikipedias (joint with Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, Ulrich Matter and Vladimir Avetian)

There will be two x 30mins presentations:

i) Shruti Agarwal will present Does Representation Add Up? Political Quotas Across Levels of Government

Political quotas often reserve offices for the same group at several levels of government. This paper asks whether reserving an additional office improves access to public programmes. We study caste-based quotas in Uttar Pradesh, India, exploiting discontinuities that determine the reservation of political offices at the village and Block levels. We examine participation in India's rural employment guarantee programme. For Other Backward Classes, the estimated effects of assigning either office alone to the group are positive, but the gains do not add up. Over 2016–19, the joint effect on households receiving employment falls short of the sum of the individual assignment effects by 27% of the mean among councils with neither assignment. Similar shortfalls are observed in active job cards and households requesting work. We find little evidence of changes in employment intensity, project completion or payment timeliness. Evaluations of individual quotas may therefore overstate the gains from expanding representation across levels of government.

ii) Haden Harris will present "Cultural Group Selection and Preferences for Cooperation". This is joint work with Devesh Rustagi and Joseph Henrich.

The title of the work Arman will be presenting is “Motivating the Future, Defending the Past: Respect Concerns and Intergenerational Belief Transmission”

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Title:  Universal inference with time series data (by Shin Kanaya and Yuya Sasaki)

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a likelihood-based inference method for time-series data, building on the universal inference framework of Wasserman, Ramdas, and Balakrishnan (2020, PNAS), whose original work focused primarily on the i.i.d. setting. We consider parametric Markov and hidden Markov models, which encompass a wide range of models used in macroeconomics and finance, including autoregressive, (G)ARCH, and state-space models. Our method retains the original spirit of universal inference: the resulting confidence sets and hypothesis tests are valid without relying on conventional regularity conditions and enjoy finite-sample guarantees. A novel use of the Markov property plays a crucial role in our construction, yielding inference procedures that remain uniformly valid over a class of data-generating processes without imposing either ergodicity or stationarity. We illustrate the proposed method through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications.

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