Mike Tildesley publications
The impact of natural climate variability on the global distribution of Aedes aegypti : a mathematical modelling study
Kaye, A. R., Obolski, U., Sun, L., Hart, W. S., Hurrell, J. W., Tildesley, M. J. and Thompson, R. N.
Aedes aegypti spread pathogens affecting humans, including dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses. Anthropogenic climate change is altering the spatial distribution of Ae aegypti and therefore the locations at risk of vector-borne disease. In addition to climate change, natural climate variability, resulting from internal atmospheric processes and interactions between climate system components (eg, atmosphere–land and atmosphere–ocean interactions), determines climate outcomes. However, the role of natural climate variability in modifying the effects of anthropogenic climate change on future environmental suitability for Ae aegypti has not been assessed fully. In this study, we aim to assess uncertainty arising from natural climate variability in projections of Ae aegypti suitability up to the year 2100. Lancet Planetary Health. December 2024
The time between symptom onset and various clinical outcomes : a statistical analysis of MERS-CoV patients in Saudi Arabia
Althobaity, Yehya, Alkhudaydi, Muhammad, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N. and Tildesley, Michael J
In this study, we investigate the impact of demographic characteristics on MERS-CoV cases in Saudi Arabia, specifically focusing on the time intervals between symptom onset and key events such as hospitalization, case confirmation, reporting and death. Importantly, we observe age-based differences in the risk of hospitalization and other measures of infection severity, including the probability of death conditional on hospitalization. Careful quantification of epidemiological characteristics, including inference of key epidemiological periods and assessments of differences between cases of different ages, plays a crucial role in understanding the progression of MERS-CoV outbreaks and formulating effective public health strategies to mitigate their impact.